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That Squeezing Feeling: The Interest Burden and Public Debt Stabilization

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  • Xavier Debrun
  • Tidiane Kinda

Abstract

The paper explores the extent to which the pressure of debt service on other spending items may push governments to embark on fiscal consolidation beyond what is strictly necessary to secure solvency. The empirical analysis identifies thresholds of interest bill indicators beyond which governments appear to shift to policies aimed at durably curbing the debt trajectory. Hence, in the current context of high inherited public debts, countries experiencing rising borrowing costs and interest payments would be more likely to enact more aggressive fiscal consolidations than warranted by strict solvency concerns. Conversely, those benefiting from persistently low interest rates despite rising debt stocks would likely opt for a more gradual fiscal consolidation path than what solvency considerations would normally dictate.
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  • Xavier Debrun & Tidiane Kinda, 2016. "That Squeezing Feeling: The Interest Burden and Public Debt Stabilization," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 147-178, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:19:y:2016:i:2:p:147-178
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/infi.12090
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    3. Ms. Burcu Hacibedel & Pierre Mandon & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Nathalie Pouokam, 2019. "Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 2019/020, International Monetary Fund.
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    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Kenneth S. Rogoff & M. Ayhan Kose, 2022. "The Aftermath of Debt Surges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 637-663, August.
    7. Debrun, Xavier & Jonung, Lars, 2019. "Under threat: Rules-based fiscal policy and how to preserve it," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 142-157.
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    9. Oliver Hülsewig & Horst Rottmann, 2022. "Euro Area Periphery Countries' Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy Surprises," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 544-568, June.
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    11. Iancu, Aurel & Olteanu, Dan Constantin, 2023. "Debt Limit, Fiscal Space and Fiscal Fatigue in the Central and Eastern European Countries of EU," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 230629, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    12. M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2020. "Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2006, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    13. Dell' Erba, Salvatore & Mattina, Todd & Roitman, Agustin, 2015. "Pressure or prudence? Tales of market pressure and fiscal adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 196-213.
    14. Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea & Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo, 2019. "Does the composition of government expenditures matter for sovereign bond spreads' evolution in developing countries?," Working Papers halshs-02019063, HAL.
    15. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Debrun, Xavier & Willems, Tim & Wyplosz, Charles, 2019. "Public Debt Sustainability," CEPR Discussion Papers 14010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Avdjiev, Stefan & Binder, Stephan & Sousa, Ricardo, 2021. "External debt composition and domestic credit cycles," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    17. Mr. Alvar Kangur & Koralai Kirabaeva & Jean-Marc Natal & Simon Voigts, 2019. "How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?," IMF Working Papers 2019/200, International Monetary Fund.
    18. European Fiscal Board (EFB), 2020. "2020 annual report of the European Fiscal Board," Annual reports 2020, European Fiscal Board.
    19. Combes,Jean-Louis,Minea,Alexandru,Sawadogo,Pegdewende Nestor, 2021. "Do Illicit Financial Flows Hurt Tax Revenues ? Evidence from the Developing World," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9781, The World Bank.
    20. Debi Prasad Bal & Badri Narayan Rath, 2016. "Is Public Debt a Burden for India?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(2), pages 184-201, June.
    21. Markus Leibrecht & Johann Scharler, 2021. "Veto players, market discipline, and structural fiscal consolidations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(3), pages 361-384, September.
    22. Hülsewig, Oliver & Steinbach, Armin, 2021. "Monetary financing and fiscal discipline," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    23. Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Mr. Todd D. Mattina & Agustin Roitman, 2013. "Pressure or Prudence? Tales of Market Pressure and Fiscal Adjustment," IMF Working Papers 2013/170, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Žďárek, Václav, 2017. "Fiscal reaction function and fiscal fatigue: evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2036, European Central Bank.
    25. Mr. S. M. Ali Abbas & Laura Blattner & Mark De Broeck & Ms. Asmaa A ElGanainy & Malin Hu, 2014. "Sovereign Debt Composition in Advanced Economies: A Historical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2014/162, International Monetary Fund.

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