IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/ajagec/v55y1973i1p83-88..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effect of Public Price Forecasts on Market Price Variation: A Stochastic Cobweb Example

Author

Listed:
  • David J. Smyth

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effect of less than perfectly accurate forecasting in a stochastic cobweb model when public announcement of the forecasts influences suppliers' behavior. The forecasts considered in the analysis reduce the time variance of price, but the forecasts that minimize the variance are not always the most accurate.

Suggested Citation

  • David J. Smyth, 1973. "Effect of Public Price Forecasts on Market Price Variation: A Stochastic Cobweb Example," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 55(1), pages 83-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:55:y:1973:i:1:p:83-88.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1238668
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John W. Freebairn, 1975. "Forecasting For Australian Agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 19(3), pages 154-174, December.
    2. J. W. Freebairn, 1976. "The Value and Distribution of the Benefits of Commodity Price Outlook Information," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 52(2), pages 199-212, June.
    3. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R. & Good, Darrel L., 2014. "Evaluation of Selected USDA WAOB and NASS Forecasts and Estimates in Corn and Soybeans," Marketing and Outlook Research Reports 183477, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    4. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2002. "Usda Production Forecasts For Pork, Beef, And Broilers: An Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Boris, Keith, 2008. "Accuracy and efficiency in the U.S. Department of Energy's short-term supply forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1192-1207, May.
    6. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Boris, Keith, 2009. "Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts: The DOE's energy price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 189-196.
    7. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2003. "USDA Livestock Price Forecasts: A Comprehensive Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 1-19, August.
    8. Freebairn, John W., 1978. "An Evaluation of Outlook Information for Australian Agricultural Commodities," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(03), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Tomek, William G. & Robinson, Kenneth L., 1977. "PART V. Agricultural Price Analysis and Outlook," AAEA Monographs, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 337217, january.
    10. Bailey, DeeVon & Brorsen, B. Wade, 1998. "Trends In The Accuracy Of Usda Production Forecasts For Beef And Pork," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Freebairn, John W., 1976. "Welfare Implications Of More Accurate Rational Forecast Prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 20(2), pages 1-11, August.
    12. David J. Smyth, 1974. "The Effect of Forecasting in a Simple Stochastic Macroeconomic Model," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 170-172, April.
    13. Dufresne, Daniel & Vázquez-Abad, Felisa, 2012. "Cobweb theorems with production lags and price forecasting," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-17, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Dufrfesne, Daniel & Vázquez-Abad, Felisa, 2013. "Cobweb theorems with production lags and price forecasting," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-49.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:55:y:1973:i:1:p:83-88.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.