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Use Of Errors Of Prediction In Improving Forecast Accuracy: An Application To Wool In Australia

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  • Lee, B.M.S.
  • Bui-Lan, Anh

Abstract

Over the past 20 years, the RAE has produced commodity forecasts in BAE Trends in Australian Agricultural Commodities, Farm Costs and Farm Incomes and other commodity outlook publications. There have been several studies on the accuracy of the forecasts, either comparing RAE forecasts with naive forecasts or making simple calculations of biases and standard deviations. Such approaches are not sufficiently informative in that they do not give any indication of what has caused the inaccuracies, nor of the timing of significant changes in prediction accuracy. In this analysis, an attempt is made to improve upon this situation using some tools of time series analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, B.M.S. & Bui-Lan, Anh, 1982. "Use Of Errors Of Prediction In Improving Forecast Accuracy: An Application To Wool In Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 26(1), pages 1-14, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ajaeau:23049
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.23049
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. P. J. Harrison & O. L. Davies, 1964. "The Use of Cumulative Sum (Cusum) Techniques for the Control of Routine Forecasts of Product Demand," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 12(2), pages 325-333, April.
    2. John W. Freebairn, 1975. "Forecasting For Australian Agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 19(3), pages 154-174, December.
    3. B. P. M. McCabe & M. J. Harrison, 1980. "Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships Over Time Using Least Squares Residuals," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 29(2), pages 142-148, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. McCarl, Bruce A., 1984. "Model Validation: An Overview with some Emphasis on Risk Models," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(03), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Jolly, L.O. & Wong, Gordon, 1987. "Composite Forecasting: some empirical results using BAE short-term forecasts," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(01), pages 1-23, April.

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