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Comparative Forecast Accuracy In The New South Wales Prime Lamb Market

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  • Vere, David T.
  • Griffith, Garry R.

Abstract

The market for Australian prime lamb is characterised by high production seasonality and a highly competitive retail demand. Because these factors often translate into substantial market variability, regular forecasts of supply and demand are important requirements of lamb market participants. There has been some forecasting activity in the state and national lamb markets but it has been a somewhat controversial activity. This paper assesses the comparative forecast accuracy of a range of methods in the New South Wales lamb market. The results indicate that no single method is clearly superior in all situations and the greatest scope for improving forecast accuracy in the New South Wales lamb market is through the use of combined econometric and naive approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Vere, David T. & Griffith, Garry R., 1990. "Comparative Forecast Accuracy In The New South Wales Prime Lamb Market," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 34(2), pages 1-15, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ajaeau:22439
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.22439
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jolly, L.O. & Wong, Gordon, 1987. "Composite Forecasting: some empirical results using BAE short-term forecasts," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(01), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Vere, David T. & Griffith, Garry R., 1988. "Supply and Demand Interactions in the New South Wales Prime Lamb Market," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(03), pages 1-19, December.
    3. John W. Freebairn, 1975. "Forecasting For Australian Agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 19(3), pages 154-174, December.
    4. Jon A. Brandt & David A. Bessler, 1981. "Composite Forecasting: An Application with U.S. Hog Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(1), pages 135-140.
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    1. Vere, David T. & Griffith, Garry R., 1995. "Forecasting in the Australian Lamb Industry: the Influence of Alternate Price Determination Processes," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(03), pages 1-11, December.

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    Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing;

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