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Forecasting Inflation in Sudan

Author

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  • Mr. Kenji Moriyama
  • Abdul Naseer

Abstract

This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices are the leading indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for 2009 and 2010 will be modest and that inflation will remain in single-digits, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Kenji Moriyama & Abdul Naseer, 2009. "Forecasting Inflation in Sudan," IMF Working Papers 2009/132, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/132
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Portugal: Staff Report for the 2008 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2008/323, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Introduction to Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework," Introductory Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework, Princeton University Press.
    3. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    4. Bera, Anil K. & Jarque, Carlos M., 1981. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals : Monte Carlo Evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 313-318.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Barros & Luis Gil-Alana, 2013. "Inflation Forecasting in Angola: A Fractional Approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 91-104.
    2. Hector Carcel & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2018. "Inflation analysis in the Central American Monetary Council," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 547-565, March.
    3. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Carlos Barros & Joao Ricardo Faria, 2014. "Inflation in Mozambique: empirical facts based on persistence, seasonality and breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(21), pages 2545-2555, July.
    4. Carlos P. Barros & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2014. "Long Memory in Angolan Macroeconomic Series: Mean Reversion versus Explosive Behaviour," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 59-73, March.

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    Keywords

    WP; price; forecasting inflation;
    All these keywords.

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