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Long memory in US real output per capita

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  • Guglielmo Caporale
  • Luis Gil-Alana

Abstract

This article analyses the long memory properties of quarterly real output per capita in the US (1948Q1–2008Q3) using non-parametric, semi-parametric and parametric techniques. The results vary substantially depending on the methodology employed. Evidence of mean reversion is obtained in a parametric context if the underlying disturbances are weakly autocorrelated. We also examine the possibility of a structural break in the data and the results indicate that there is a slight reduction in the degree of persistence after the break that is found to occur in the second quarter of 1978. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

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  • Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2013. "Long memory in US real output per capita," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 591-611, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:44:y:2013:i:2:p:591-611
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-012-0559-3
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kitov, Ivan, 2012. "Why price inflation in developed countries is systematically underestimated," MPRA Paper 39059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Michael Funke & Marc Gronwald, 2009. "A Convex Hull Approach to Counterfactual Analysis of Trade Openness and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 2692, CESifo.
    4. Tschernig, Rolf & Weber, Enzo & Weigand, Roland, 2014. "Long- versus medium-run identification in fractionally integrated VAR models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 299-302.
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    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marinko Skare, 2014. "Long Memory in UK Real GDP, 1851-2013: An ARFIMA-FIGARCH Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1395, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Calisse, Frank, 2019. "The impact of long-range dependence in the capital stock on interest rate and wealth distribution," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203591, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil‐Alana, 2022. "Trends and cycles in macro series: The case of US real GDP," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 123-134, January.
    9. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Borja Balprad & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2015. "African Growth, Non-Linearities and Strong Dependence: An Empirical Study," NCID Working Papers 12/2015, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fractional integration; Long memory; Convergence; C22; O40;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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