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The Impact Of Minimum Wage On Unemployment, Prices, And Growth: A Multivariate Analysis For Turkey

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  • M. Kemal Biçerli
  • Merve Kocaman

Abstract

The aim of this study is to research the impact of minimum wage on unemployment, prices, and growth for the Turkish economy. The data used is monthly and covers the period from January 2005 to March 2017. The producer price index rep-resents prices and the industrial produc-tion index represents growth. The Autore-gressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used to see the effect of the minimum wage on these variables. An error-correction-based Granger causality test is then con-ducted to see short-run and long-run cau-salities. The bounds test yields evidence of a long-run relationship between variables. The obtained ARDL results also show that while the minimum wage has a statistically significant effect on unemployment and prices, it does not have a statistically sig-nificant effect on production. While there is short-run causality from minimum wage to prices only, the obtained significant error correction terms indicate long-run causal-ity for all of the variables. Consequently, the minimum wage plays a significant role in increasing prices and the number of un-employed people in Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Kemal Biçerli & Merve Kocaman, 2019. "The Impact Of Minimum Wage On Unemployment, Prices, And Growth: A Multivariate Analysis For Turkey," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(221), pages 65-84, April – J.
    • Handle: RePEc:beo:journl:v:64:y:2019:i:221:p:65-84
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Marcos Lacasa Cazcarra, 2024. "Machine Learning Analysis of the Impact of Increasing the Minimum Wage on Income Inequality in Spain from 2001 to 2021," Papers 2402.02402, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Minimum wage; unem-ployment; time series analyses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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