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Scenario Planning and Organizational Response in Changing Business Environment

Author

Listed:
  • Yusuf Danzaria

    (Principal Investigator, National Open University of Nigeria, Gombe, Nigeria)

  • Abdullahi S. Araga

    (Main Supervisor, National Open University of Nigeria Abuja, Nigeria)

  • Nnenna N. Chukwuma

    (Co-Supervisor, National Open University of Nigeria Abuja, Nigeria)

Abstract

The paper is to investigate how can scenario planning help organizations to anticipate and prepare for future changes in the business environment. The paper uses two approaches to looked at the scenario planning from global, Africa and nationally by different authors, and the methodology used were the Developmental Configuration Approach (DCA) and Theoretical Reasoning Approach (TRA), the Developmental Configuration Approach focuses on an organization’s internal dynamics, analyzing its structure, systems, and culture to identify areas for improvement and growth. The Theoretical Reasoning Approach focuses on the theoretical foundations of scenario planning and organizational analysis, analyzing the theoretical frameworks and concepts that underpin these approaches. The two approaches can be combined to provide a comprehensive understanding of scenario planning and organizational analysis in a changing business environment. The paper discusses the effectiveness of scenario planning and organizational analysis in helping organization navigate changing business environments. The study found that, scenario planning is effective in anticipating and preparing for disruptions and uncertainties, but requires significant resources and expertise. Organizational analysis is effective in understanding internal strengths and weaknesses, but is inward-focused and neglects external factors. Both approaches are essential for developing robust strategies, and combining them can help develop a comprehensive understanding of internal and external environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusuf Danzaria & Abdullahi S. Araga & Nnenna N. Chukwuma, 2024. "Scenario Planning and Organizational Response in Changing Business Environment," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(3s), pages 3926-3939, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcp:journl:v:8:y:2024:i:3s:p:3926-3939
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Wilkinson, Angela & Kupers, Roland & Mangalagiu, Diana, 2013. "How plausibility-based scenario practices are grappling with complexity to appreciate and address 21st century challenges," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 699-710.
    4. Harley, Diane & Acord, Sophia Krzys & Earl-Novell, Sarah & Lawrence, Shannon & King, C. Judson, 2010. "Assessing the Future Landscape of Scholarly Communication: An Exploration of Faculty Values and Needs in Seven Disciplines - Executive Summary," University of California at Berkeley, Center for Studies in Higher Education qt0kr8s78v, Center for Studies in Higher Education, UC Berkeley.
    5. Wright, George & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 813-825, October.
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