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The Structure of Scenarios

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  • Guido Fioretti

Abstract

Scenarios elicit possibilities that may be ignored otherwise, as well as causal relations between them. Even when too little information is available to assess reliable probabilities, the structure of linkages between evoked alternatives and perceived consequences can be analyzed by highlighting shared consequences of different alternatives or, conversely, diverging consequences of apparently similar alternatives. While according to current practice this structure is analyzed by exploring four possibilities obtained by crossing two macro-features, I illustrate the wider possibilities enabled by hypergraph analysis. An application is discussed.

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  • Guido Fioretti, 2025. "The Structure of Scenarios," Papers 2501.09773, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2501.09773
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guido Fioretti, 1999. "A Subjective Measure of Complexity," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(04), pages 349-370.
    2. Paul Goodwin & George Wright, 2001. "Enhancing Strategy Evaluation in Scenario Planning: a Role for Decision Analysis," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 1-16, January.
    3. Alipour, M. & Hafezi, R. & Amer, M. & Akhavan, A.N., 2017. "A new hybrid fuzzy cognitive map-based scenario planning approach for Iran's oil production pathways in the post–sanction period," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 851-864.
    4. Wright, George & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 813-825, October.
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