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Inflation’s Reduction of the Real Minimum Wage and Unemployment in the USA: 1987 to 2021

Author

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  • Jonathan E. Leightner

    (Hull College of Business, Augusta University, Augusta, Georgia, USA)

  • Eric Jenkins

    (Hull College of Business, Augusta University, Augusta, Georgia, USA)

Abstract

Hundreds of articles have been written that include empirical estimates of the dis-employment effects of minimum wages; however, many of these articles find statistically insignificant effects, some find significant negative effects, and a few find significant positive effects. Most of these studies use multivariate analyses which can be criticized for omitting key variables. The omitted variables problem ruins all statistics and estimates. This paper uses reiterative truncated projected least squares (RTPLS), a solution to the omitted variables problem, to estimate the percentage increase in unemployment due to a one percent increase in the real minimum wage using monthly data for the 50 states of the USA from 1987 to 2021. RTPLS produces a separate elasticity for every observation where differences in these estimates are due to omitted variables. We argue that RTPLS solves most of the econometric problems that David Neumark identified in his keynote address at a minimum wage conference in Berlin in 2018. We find that the percentage change in the unemployment rate due to a one percent change in the minimum wage ranges between 1.156 and 3.389, that the elasticities for different states tend to move together over time, and that all these elasticities are statistically significant at a 95 percent confidence level.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan E. Leightner & Eric Jenkins, 2024. "Inflation’s Reduction of the Real Minimum Wage and Unemployment in the USA: 1987 to 2021," Journal of Economic Analysis, Anser Press, vol. 3(3), pages 126-137, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bba:j00001:v:3:y:2024:i:3:p:126-137:d:219
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neumark David, 2019. "The Econometrics and Economics of the Employment Effects of Minimum Wages: Getting from Known Unknowns to Known Knowns," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 293-329, August.
    2. William E. Even & David A. Macpherson, 2019. "Where Does the Minimum Wage Bite Hardest in California?," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 1-23, March.
    3. Hristos Doucouliagos & T. D. Stanley, 2009. "Publication Selection Bias in Minimum‐Wage Research? A Meta‐Regression Analysis," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 47(2), pages 406-428, June.
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