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Solar Energy Production in Azerbaijan: Forecast Analysis Using ARIMA Model

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  • Ramil Hasanov

Abstract

The urgent need to address global climate change and promote sustainable development highlights the growing demand for renewable energy sources. Solar energy, in particular, holds significant importance due to its widespread availability and environmentally friendly characteristics. For Azerbaijan, a country dedicated to sustainable development and actively contributing to environmental conservation efforts, renewable energy assumes a central role in its strategic agenda. The objective of this study is to evaluate the historical trajectory of solar energy production in Azerbaijan over the past decade and forecast its future trends until 2030. Utilizing the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, this study utilizes time series analysis to examine the overall development trends within the solar energy sector. By analyzing past data and using forecasting model, this research endeavors to offer valuable insights to guide policy decisions and strategic planning initiatives concerning renewable energy development in Azerbaijan.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramil Hasanov, 2024. "Solar Energy Production in Azerbaijan: Forecast Analysis Using ARIMA Model," Journal of Sustainable Development Issues (JOSDI), SDIjournals, vol. 2(1), pages 11-20, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:arv:journl:v:2:y:2024:i:1:p:11-20
    DOI: 10.62433/josdi.v2i1.18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ewa Chodakowska & Joanicjusz Nazarko & Łukasz Nazarko & Hesham S. Rabayah & Raed M. Abendeh & Rami Alawneh, 2023. "ARIMA Models in Solar Radiation Forecasting in Different Geographic Locations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-24, June.
    2. Mayis G. Gulaliyev & Elchin R. Mustafayev & Gulsura Y. Mehdiyeva, 2020. "Assessment of Solar Energy Potential and Its Ecological-Economic Efficiency: Azerbaijan Case," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-11, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Renewable energy; solar energy production; ARIMA model; forecast; green economics; sustainability.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F64 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Environment
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q20 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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