IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/remaae/12253.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities with Applications in Agricultural Economics

Author

Listed:
  • Norris, Patricia E.
  • Kramer, Randall A.

Abstract

Probability judgements are important components of decision making under uncertainty. In particular, economic decisions can be aided by assuring more accurate assessment of probabilities and more realistic modelling of economic problems through the inclusion of subjective probabilities. The purpose of this paper is to describe the techniques which can be used to elicit subjective probabilities and the ways in which these techniques can be incorporated into agricultural economics research. The review draws from the statistics, psychology, management, operations research, meteorology and economics literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Norris, Patricia E. & Kramer, Randall A., 1990. "The Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities with Applications in Agricultural Economics," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(02-03), pages 1-21, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:remaae:12253
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.12253
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/12253/files/58020127.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.12253?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Griffiths, William E. & Anderson, Jock R. & Hamal, K.B., 1987. "Subjective Distributions As Econometric Response Data," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 31(2), pages 1-15, August.
    2. Anderson, Jock R. & Dillon, John L. & Hardaker, Brian, 1977. "Agricultural Decision Analysis," Monographs: Applied Economics, AgEcon Search, number 288652, November.
    3. Gerald A. Carlson, 1970. "A Decision Theoretic Approach to Crop Disease Prediction and Control," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 52(2), pages 216-223.
    4. John Lee & Deborah J. Brown & Stephen Lovejoy, 1985. "Stochastic Efficiency versus Mean-Variance Criteria as Predictors of Adoption of Reduced Tillage," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(4), pages 839-845.
    5. William Grisley & Earl D. Kellogg, 1985. "Farmers' Subjective Probabilities in Northern Thailand: Reply," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(1), pages 149-152.
    6. Anderson, Jock R. & Feder, Gershon, 2007. "Agricultural Extension," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: Robert Evenson & Prabhu Pingali (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 44, pages 2343-2378, Elsevier.
    7. Joseph J. Moder & E. G. Rodgers, 1968. "Judgment Estimates of the Moments of Pert Type Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 76-83, October.
    8. Emilio M. Francisco & Jock R. Anderson, 1972. "Chance And Choice West Of The Darling," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(2), pages 82-93, August.
    9. David A. Bessler, 1980. "Aggregated Personalistic Beliefs on Yields of Selected Crops Estimated Using ARIMA Processes," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 62(4), pages 666-674.
    10. William Grisley & Earl D. Kellogg, 1983. "Farmers' Subjective Probabilities in Northern Thailand: An Elicitation Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(1), pages 74-82.
    11. Chesley, Gr, 1978. "Subjective-Probability Elicitation Techniques - Performance Comparison," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 225-241.
    12. Tom Knight & S. R. Johnson & Robert M. Finley, 1985. "Farmers' Subjective Probabilities in Northern Thailand: Comment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(1), pages 147-148.
    13. Jock R. Anderson, 1973. "Sparse Data, Climatic Variability, and Yield Uncertainty in Response Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 55(1), pages 77-82.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Terrance Hurley & Jason Shogren, 2005. "An Experimental Comparison of Induced and Elicited Beliefs," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 169-188, January.
    2. Caroline Roussy & Aude Ridier & Karim Chaïb, 2014. "A methodological proposal to approach farmers’ adoption behavior: stated preferences and perceptions of the innovation," Post-Print hal-01123260, HAL.
    3. Delavande, Adeline & Giné, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2011. "Measuring subjective expectations in developing countries: A critical review and new evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 151-163, March.
    4. Shaik, Saleem & Coble, Keith H. & Knight, Thomas O. & Baquet, Alan E. & Patrick, George F., 2008. "Crop Revenue and Yield Insurance Demand: A Subjective Probability Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Crosthwaite, Jim & McMahon, Ian, 1992. "Economic Issues and the Protection of Endangered Species," 1992 Conference (36th), February 10-13, 1992, Canberra, Australia 146435, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    6. Agarwal, Sandip Kumar, 2017. "Subjective beliefs and decision making under uncertainty in the field," ISU General Staff Papers 201701010800006248, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Milne, Mary & Godden, David P. & Kennedy, John O.S. & Kambuou, Rosa N., 1999. "Evaluating the Benefits of Conserved Crop Germplasm in PNG," 1999 Conference (43th), January 20-22, 1999, Christchurch, New Zealand 124091, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    8. Caroline Roussy & Aude Ridier & Karim Chaïb, 2014. "Adoption d’innovations par les agriculteurs : rôle des perceptions et des préférences," Post-Print hal-01123427, HAL.
    9. Fackler, Paul L. & King, Robert P., 1987. "The Evaluation of Probability Distributions with Special Emphasis on Price Distributions Derived from Option Premiums," Regional Research Projects > 1987: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 22-25, 1987, San Antonio, Texas 272343, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
    10. Agarwal, Sandip & Jacobs, Keri L. & Weninger, Quinn, 2016. "Elicitation of Subjective Beliefs: A Pilot study of farmers' nitrogen management decision-making in Central Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 201601010800001005, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Hardaker, J. Brian & Lien, Gudbrand, 2010. "Probabilities for decision analysis in agriculture and rural resource economics: The need for a paradigm change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(6), pages 345-350, July.
    12. Torkamani, Javad, 2006. "Measuring and Incorporating Farmers’ Personal Beliefs and Preferences about Uncertain Events in Decision Analysis: A Stochastic Programming Experiment," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 1-15.
    13. Emileva, Begaiym & Kuhn, Lena & Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Glauben, Thomas, 2023. "The role of smartphone-based weather information acquisition on climate change perception accuracy: Cross-country evidence from Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Uzbekistan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 41, pages 1-1.
    14. Clop-Gallart, M. Merce & Juarez-Rubio, Francisco, 2005. "Elicitation of Subjective Crop Yield PDF for DSS Implementation," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24561, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Simone Cerroni, 2020. "Eliciting farmers’ subjective probabilities, risk, and uncertainty preferences using contextualized field experiments," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(5), pages 707-724, September.
    16. Olabisi, Laura Schmitt & Liverpool-Tasie, Saweda & Olajide, Adeola, 2016. "Towards A Systemic Analysis Of The Impacts Of Climate Change On Agricultural Production In Nigeria," Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy Research Papers 259066, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security (FSP).
    17. Langrock, Ines & Hurley, Terrance M., 2006. "Risk Preferences, Perceptions and Systematic Biases," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21343, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Sudha Narayanan, 2012. "Safe gambles? Farmer perceptions of transactional certainty and risk-return tradeoffs in contract farming schemes in Southern India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-021, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    19. Cerroni, Simone & Shaw, W. Douglass, 2012. "Does climate change information affect stated risks of pine beetle impacts on forests? An application of the exchangeability method," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 72-84.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boggess, William G. & Anaman, Kwabena A. & Hanson, Gregory D., 1985. "Importance, Causes, And Management Responses To Farm Risks: Evidence From Florida And Alabama," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Antle, John M. & Goodger, William A., 1983. "Measuring Stochastic Technology: The Case Of Tulare Milk Production," Working Papers 225708, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    3. Scott Johnson, C. & Foster, Kenneth A., 1994. "Risk Preferences and Contracting In the U.S. Hog Industry," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 393-405, December.
    4. Gomez-Limon, Jose A. & Arriaza, Manuel & Riesgo, Laura, 2003. "An MCDM analysis of agricultural risk aversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(3), pages 569-585, December.
    5. Anderson, Jock R., 1979. "Impacts of Climatic Variability in Australian Agriculture: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(03), pages 1-31, December.
    6. Vieth, Gary R. & Suppapanya, Pramote, 1996. "An Evaluation Of Selected Decision Models: A Case Of Crop Choice In Northern Thailand," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Agarwal, Sandip Kumar, 2017. "Subjective beliefs and decision making under uncertainty in the field," ISU General Staff Papers 201701010800006248, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Agarwal, Sandip & Jacobs, Keri L. & Weninger, Quinn, 2016. "Elicitation of Subjective Beliefs: A Pilot study of farmers' nitrogen management decision-making in Central Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 201601010800001005, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Hardaker, J. B., 1982. "Fundamental Aspects Of Risk And Uncertainty In Agriculture," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 21(2), October.
    10. Bond, Gary E. & Wonder, Bernard, 1980. "Risk Attitudes Amongst Australian Farmers," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, April.
    11. Bartholomaeus, M.K. & Hardaker, J. Brian, 1981. "Farm Syndication And Risk Sharing: A Case Study," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 25(3), pages 1-15, December.
    12. Buccola, Steven T., 1982. "Portfolio Selection Under Exponential And Quadratic Utility," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, July.
    13. Boggess, William G. & Cardelli, Dino J. & Barfield, C.S., 1985. "A Bioeconomic Simulation Approach To Multi-Species Insect Management," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 1-13, December.
    14. Watson, W.D. & Anderson, Jock R., 1977. "SPATIAL v. TIME-SERIES DATA FOR ASSESSING RESPONSE RISK," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 45(03), pages 1-5, September.
    15. Anderson, Kim B. & Mapp, Harry P., Jr., 1996. "Risk Management Programs In Extension," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-8, July.
    16. Young, Douglas & Lin, William & Pope, Rulon & Robison, Lindon & Selley, Roger, 1979. "Risk Preferences Of Agricultual Producers:Their Measurement And Use," Risk Management in Agriculture: Behavioral, Managerial, and Policy Issues, January 25-26, 1979, San Francisco, California 271459, Regional Research Projects > W-149: An Economic Evaluation of Managing Market Risks in Agriculture.
    17. Serrao, Amilcar & Coelho, Luis, 2004. "Cumulative Prospect Theory: A Study Of The Farmers' Decision Behavior In The Alentejo Dryland Region Of Portugal," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20245, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. David J. Pannell, 1991. "Pests and pesticides, risk and risk aversion," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 5(4), pages 361-383, August.
    19. Gomez-Limon, Jose Antonio & Riesgo, Laura & Arriaza Balmón, Manuel, 2003. "Multi-Criteria Analysis Of Factors Use Level: The Case Of Water For Irrigation," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25836, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Parton, Kevin A., 2009. "Agricultural Decision Analysis: The Causal Challenge," 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia 48150, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:remaae:12253. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.