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Chance And Choice West Of The Darling

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  • Emilio M. Francisco
  • Jock R. Anderson

Abstract

Twenty-one pastoralists in the West Darling region of New South Wales were interviewed to gain an understanding of the attitudes of managers in this high-risk pastoral area to uncertain prospects. It was found that pastoralists had no difficulty in specifying subjective probabilities but in modifying probabilistic information they were conservative relative to the 'correct' revision implied by Bayes' Theorem. All the surveyed pastoralists were non-indifferent to risk, as evidenced by their non-linear utility functions for gains and losses.
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  • Emilio M. Francisco & Jock R. Anderson, 1972. "Chance And Choice West Of The Darling," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(2), pages 82-93, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:16:y:1972:i:2:p:82-93
    DOI: j.1467-8489.1972.tb00092.x
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    1. R.R. Officer & A.N. Halter & John L. Dillon, 1967. "Risk, Utility And The Palatabilty Of Extension Advice To Farmer Groups," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 11(2), pages 171-183, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Easter, Christopher D. & Paris, Quirino, 1983. "Supply Response With Stochastic Technology And Prices In Australia'S Rural Export Industries," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 27(1), pages 1-19, April.
    2. Mill, Stephen J. & Longworth, John W., 1975. "Stochastic-Computerized-Activity-Budgeting For Sheep Enterprises," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 19(2), pages 1-11, August.
    3. Wall, Charles A. & Fisher, Brian S., 1988. "Supply Response and the Theory of Production and Profit Functions," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(03), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Norris, Patricia E. & Kramer, Randall A., 1990. "The Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities with Applications in Agricultural Economics," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(02-03), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Walker, Odell L. & Nelson, A. Gene, 1980. "Dealing With Risks In The Management Agricultural Firms: An Extension/Teaching Viewpoint," Risk Analysis in Agriculture: Research and Educational Developments, January 16-18, 1980, Tucson, Arizona 271561, Regional Research Projects > W-149: An Economic Evaluation of Managing Market Risks in Agriculture.
    6. Throsby, C.D., 1973. "New Methodologies in Agricultural Production Economics: a Review," 1973 Conference, August 19-30, 1973, São Paulo, Brazil 181385, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Nauges, Celine & Wheeler, Sarah Ann & Zuo, Alec, 2016. "Elicitation of irrigators’ risk preferences from observed behaviour," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 60(3), July.
    8. Clop-Gallart, M. Merce & Juarez-Rubio, Francisco, 2008. "Shape Persistence in Elicited Subjective Crop Yield Probability Density Functions," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44128, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Freebairn, John W., 1973. "Some Estimates of Supply and Inventory Response Functions for the Cattle and Sheep Sector of New South Wales," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(02-3), pages 1-38, June.
    10. Nelson, A. Gene, 1980. "The Case For And Components Of A Probabilistic Agricultural Outlook Program," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Fleisher, Beverly, 1986. "Agricultural Policy And Risk: Current Programs And Future Considerations," Regional Research Projects > 1986: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 23-26, 1986, Tampa, Florida 272006, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
    12. Chudleigh, Peter D. & Filan, S.J., 1972. "A Simulation Model Of An Arid Zone Sheep Property," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(3), pages 1-12, December.
    13. Stent, W.R., 1976. "Critique Of The Methodology Of Australian Agricultural Economics," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 20(1), pages 1-18, April.
    14. Anderson, Jock R., 1979. "Impacts of Climatic Variability in Australian Agriculture: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(03), pages 1-31, December.
    15. Young, Douglas & Lin, William & Pope, Rulon & Robison, Lindon & Selley, Roger, 1979. "Risk Preferences Of Agricultual Producers:Their Measurement And Use," Risk Management in Agriculture: Behavioral, Managerial, and Policy Issues, January 25-26, 1979, San Francisco, California 271459, Regional Research Projects > W-149: An Economic Evaluation of Managing Market Risks in Agriculture.
    16. Hardaker, J. B., 1982. "Fundamental Aspects Of Risk And Uncertainty In Agriculture," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 21(2), October.
    17. Anderson, Jock R. & Hardaker, J. Brian, 1972. "An Appreciation of Decision Analysis in Management," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 40(04), pages 1-15, December.
    18. Vieth, Gary R. & Suppapanya, Pramote, 1996. "An Evaluation Of Selected Decision Models: A Case Of Crop Choice In Northern Thailand," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 1-11, December.
    19. Bond, Gary E. & Wonder, Bernard, 1980. "Risk Attitudes Amongst Australian Farmers," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, April.
    20. Bartholomaeus, M.K. & Hardaker, J. Brian, 1981. "Farm Syndication And Risk Sharing: A Case Study," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 25(3), pages 1-15, December.
    21. Gomez-Limon, Jose Antonio & Riesgo, Laura & Arriaza Balmón, Manuel, 2002. "Agricultural Risk Aversion Revisited: A Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24827, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    22. Gomez-Limon, Jose A. & Arriaza, Manuel & Riesgo, Laura, 2003. "An MCDM analysis of agricultural risk aversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(3), pages 569-585, December.
    23. Tisdell, Clement A., 1973. "Certainty Equivalence and Bias in the Management of Production," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(04), pages 1-13, December.

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