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Towards a Systemic Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Nigeria

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  • Olabisi, Laura Schmitt
  • Liverpool-Tasie, Saweda
  • Olajide, Adeola

Abstract

Climate change and the negative consequences it has on agriculture is already evident in Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan African countries. Mean annual rainfall in the Sahel region is declining and becoming more erratic while the growing season s. The impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in Nigeria going forward are expected to be severe, but so far there is a dearth of systemic analysis of how these impacts would develop over time, or how they would interact with other drivers impacting Nigerian agriculture. Such a systemic analysis could contribute to adaptation efforts by identifying policy mechanisms that serve as system ‘levers’ to effect change given the considerable uncertainty associated with both the socio-economic and ecological aspects of climate change. This study begins to provide a systematic analysis of the impact of climate change on agricultural production in Nigeria using a participatory research method. We convened a workshop of key stakeholders with diverse and in-depth knowledge of Nigerian agriculture in Ibadan, Nigeria, in June, 2016. Using a causal loop diagramming (CLD) technique, we grouped these stakeholders by region and led them through an exercise in which they drew diagrams depicting the barriers to, and opportunities for, Nigerian agricultural development. CLD is a method used in system dynamics modeling, and it is effective for identifying causal relationships between variables as well as feedback mechanisms.

Suggested Citation

  • Olabisi, Laura Schmitt & Liverpool-Tasie, Saweda & Olajide, Adeola, 2017. "Towards a Systemic Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Nigeria," Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy Research Briefs 260421, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security (FSP).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:miffpb:260421
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.260421
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    1. Rachel James & Richard Washington, 2013. "Changes in African temperature and precipitation associated with degrees of global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 859-872, April.
    2. Norris, Patricia E. & Kramer, Randall A., 1990. "The Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities with Applications in Agricultural Economics," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(02-03), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Boubacar, Inoussa, 2010. "The Effects of Drought on Crop Yields and Yield Variability in Sahel," 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida 56322, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Security and Poverty; International Development;
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