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Farmers' Subjective Probabilities in Northern Thailand: An Elicitation Analysis

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  • William Grisley
  • Earl D. Kellogg

Abstract

The ability of agricultural decision makers to formulate logical expectations about the outcome of risky events in crop production and marketing is investigated. Measures of Northern Thailand farmers' perceptions of yield, price, and net income are attempted using an elicitation approach which includes a significant monetary reward. This approach is found to be feasible. The expectations derived are logical and consistent when compared to harvest results and farmers' actual production practices. Farmers' expectations about sources of risk and the correlation of socioeconomic characteristics with expectation accuracy are analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • William Grisley & Earl D. Kellogg, 1983. "Farmers' Subjective Probabilities in Northern Thailand: An Elicitation Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(1), pages 74-82.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:65:y:1983:i:1:p:74-82.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1240339
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Delavande, Adeline & Giné, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2011. "Measuring subjective expectations in developing countries: A critical review and new evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 151-163, March.
    2. Agarwal, Sandip Kumar, 2017. "Subjective beliefs and decision making under uncertainty in the field," ISU General Staff Papers 201701010800006248, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Agarwal, Sandip & Jacobs, Keri L. & Weninger, Quinn, 2016. "Elicitation of Subjective Beliefs: A Pilot study of farmers' nitrogen management decision-making in Central Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 201601010800001005, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Musser, Wesley N., 1983. "Discussion--Model Validation: An Overview With Some Emphasis On Risk Models," 1983: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 28-30, 1983, San Antonio, Texas 271713, Regional Research Projects > S-180: Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms: Perspectives and Research Issues.
    5. Dismukes, Robert & Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J., 1989. "Participation In Multiple-Peril Crop Insurance: Risk Assessments And Risk Preferences Of Cranberry Growers," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 18(2), pages 1-9, October.
    6. Tsakas, Elias, 2020. "Robust scoring rules," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(3), July.
    7. Sudha Narayanan, 2012. "Safe gambles? Farmer perceptions of transactional certainty and risk-return tradeoffs in contract farming schemes in Southern India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-021, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    8. Jason R.V. Franken & Joost M.E. Pennings & Philip Garcia, 2014. "Measuring the effect of risk attitude on marketing behavior," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(5), pages 525-535, September.
    9. Norris, Patricia E. & Kramer, Randall A., 1990. "The Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities with Applications in Agricultural Economics," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(02-03), pages 1-21, December.
    10. Tsakas, Elias, 2018. "Robust scoring rules," Research Memorandum 023, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    11. Clop-Gallart, M. Merce & Juarez-Rubio, Francisco, 2005. "Elicitation of Subjective Crop Yield PDF for DSS Implementation," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24561, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Simone Cerroni, 2020. "Eliciting farmers’ subjective probabilities, risk, and uncertainty preferences using contextualized field experiments," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(5), pages 707-724, September.

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