IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/jlaare/30838.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing The Financial Risks Of Diversified Coffee Production Systems: An Alternative Nonnormal Cdf Estimation Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Ramirez, Octavio A.
  • Sosa, Romeo

Abstract

Recently developed techniques are adapted and combined for the modeling and simulation of crop yields and prices that can be mutually correlated, exhibit heteroskedasticity or autocorrelation, and follow nonnormal probability density functions. The techniques are applied to the modeling and simulation of probability distribution functions for the returns of three tropical agroforestry systems for coffee production. The importance of using distribution functions that can more closely reflect the statistical behavior of yields and prices for risk analysis is discussed and illustrated.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramirez, Octavio A. & Sosa, Romeo, 2000. "Assessing The Financial Risks Of Diversified Coffee Production Systems: An Alternative Nonnormal Cdf Estimation Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(1), pages 1-19, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:30838
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.30838
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/30838/files/25010267.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.30838?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohamed N. Jouini & Robert T. Clemen, 1996. "Copula Models for Aggregating Expert Opinions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 44(3), pages 444-457, June.
    2. Hans P. Binswanger, 1980. "Attitudes Toward Risk: Experimental Measurement in Rural India," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 62(3), pages 395-407.
    3. Gallagher, Paul W., 1987. "U.S. Soybean Yields: Estimation and Forecasting with Non-Symmetric Disturbances," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10779, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Bruce A. Babcock & David A. Hennessy, 1996. "Input Demand under Yield and Revenue Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 416-427.
    5. McDonald, James B., 1989. "Partially adaptive estimation of ARMA time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 217-230.
    6. C. Robert Taylor, 1990. "Two Practical Procedures for Estimating Multivariate Nonnormal Probability Density Functions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(1), pages 210-217.
    7. Octavio A. Ramírez, 1997. "Estimation and Use of a Multivariate Parametric Model for Simulating Heteroskedastic, Correlated, Nonnormal Random Variables: The Case of Corn Belt Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 191-205.
    8. Anderson, Jock R., 1974. "Simulation: Methodology and Application in Agricultural Economics," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 42(01), pages 1-53, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Atallah, Shady S. & Gómez, Miguel I. & Jaramillo, Juliana, 2018. "A Bioeconomic Model of Ecosystem Services Provision: Coffee Berry Borer and Shade-grown Coffee in Colombia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 129-138.
    2. Fleming, Euan & Milne, Mary, 2003. "Bioeconomic modelling of the production and export of cocoa for price policy analysis in Papua New Guinea," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 483-505, May.
    3. Ramirez, Octavio A. & Somarriba, Eduardo, 2000. "Risk And Returns Of Diversified Cropping Systems Under Nonnormal, Cross-, And Autocorrelated Commodity Price Structures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Javier Alejandro López Aguilar, 2016. "Efectos potenciales de los certificados ambientales sobre la cobertura forestal de los cafetales en México," Graduate theses (Spanish) TESG 012, CIDE, División de Economía.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramirez, Octavio A. & Sosa, Romeo, 2000. "Risk Analysis Under Correlated, Non-Normal Price And Yield Probability Distributions," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21888, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Arora, Gaurav & Agarwal, Sandip K., 2020. "Agricultural input use and index insurance adoption: Concept and evidence," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304508, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Ramirez, Octavio A. & Somarriba, Eduardo, 2000. "Risk And Returns Of Diversified Cropping Systems Under Nonnormal, Cross-, And Autocorrelated Commodity Price Structures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Ramirez, Octavio A. & Somarriba, Eduardo, 1999. "Joint Modeling And Simulation Of Autocorrelated Non-Normal Time Series: An Application To Risk And Return Analysis," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21564, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Chuck Mason & Dermot J. Hayes & Sergio H. Lence, 2002. "Systemic risk in U.S. crop reinsurance programs," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 63(1), pages 23-39, December.
    6. Ramirez, Octavio & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2016. "Some Comparative Statics for Evaluating the Performance of the US Crop Insurance Program," SCC-76 Meeting, 2016, March 17-19, Pensacola, Florida 233761, SCC-76: Economics and Management of Risk in Agriculture and Natural Resources.
    7. Ramirez, Octavio A. & McDonald, Tanya U., 2006. "The Expanded Johnson System: A Highly Flexible Crop Yield Distribution Model," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21455, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. María Bielza & Alberto Garrido & José M. Sumpsi, 2004. "Revenue insurance as an income stabilization policy: an application to the Spanish olive oil sector," Post-Print hal-01201063, HAL.
    9. Park, Eunchun & Brorsen, B. Wade & Harri, Ardian, 2016. "Using Bayesian Spatial Smoothing and Extreme Value Theory to Develop Area-Yield Crop Insurance Rating," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235754, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Ardian Harri & Cumhur Erdem & Keith H. Coble & Thomas O. Knight, 2009. "Crop Yield Distributions: A Reconciliation of Previous Research and Statistical Tests for Normality," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 163-182.
    11. Ramirez, Octavio A. & Carpio, Carlos E. & Rejesus, Roderick M., 2011. "Can Crop Insurance Premiums Be Reliably Estimated?," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-14, April.
    12. Lu, Yue & Ramirez, Octavio A. & Rejesus, Roderick M. & Knight, Thomas O. & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2008. "Empirically Evaluating the Flexibility of the Johnson Family of Distributions: A Crop Insurance Application," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 1-13, April.
    13. Clop-Gallart, M. Merce & Juarez-Rubio, Francisco, 2008. "Shape Persistence in Elicited Subjective Crop Yield Probability Density Functions," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44128, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Gomez-Limon, Jose A. & Arriaza, Manuel & Riesgo, Laura, 2003. "An MCDM analysis of agricultural risk aversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(3), pages 569-585, December.
    15. Mason, Charles Edwin, IV, 2000. "Estimation and attenuation of reinsurance risk in the crop insurance market," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000013703, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Zheng, Qiujie & Wang, H. Holly & Shi, Qinghua, 2008. "Estimating Farm Level Multivariate Yield Distribution Using Nonparametric Methods," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6509, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Gomez-Limon, Jose Antonio & Riesgo, Laura & Arriaza Balmón, Manuel, 2002. "Agricultural Risk Aversion Revisited: A Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24827, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Bielza, María & Garrido, Alberto & Sumpsi, José M., 2004. "Revenue insurance as an income stabilization policy: an application to the Spanish olive oil sector," Cahiers d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales (CESR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 70.
    19. Ramirez, Octavio A. & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2017. "A Probabilistic Model of Crop Insurance Purchase Decision," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 42(1), pages 1-17, January.
    20. Christopher N. Boyer & B. Wade Brorsen & Emmanuel Tumusiime, 2015. "Modeling skewness with the linear stochastic plateau model to determine optimal nitrogen rates," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(1), pages 1-10, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk and Uncertainty;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:30838. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/waeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.