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Systemic risk in U.S. crop reinsurance programs

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  • Mason, Chuck
  • Hayes, Dermot J.
  • Lence, Sergio H

Abstract

This study develops a method to estimate the probability density function of the Federal Risk Management Agency’s (RMA’s) net income from reinsuring crop insurance for corn, wheat, and soybeans. When calibrated using 1997 data, results from the advocated method show that in 1997 there was a 5% probability RMA would have had to reimburse at least $1 billion to insurance companies, and the fair value of RMA’s insurance services to insurance firms in 1997 was $78.7 million.

Suggested Citation

  • Mason, Chuck & Hayes, Dermot J. & Lence, Sergio H, 2003. "Systemic risk in U.S. crop reinsurance programs," ISU General Staff Papers 200304010800001293, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:200304010800001293
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Gallagher, 1987. "U.S. Soybean Yields: Estimation and Forecasting with Nonsymmetric Disturbances," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(4), pages 796-803.
    2. Richard E. Just & Quinn Weninger, 1999. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 287-304.
    3. Gallagher, Paul W., 1987. "U.S. Soybean Yields: Estimation and Forecasting with Non-Symmetric Disturbances," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10779, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Bruce A. Babcock & David A. Hennessy, 1996. "Input Demand under Yield and Revenue Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 416-427.
    5. Octavio A. Ramírez, 1997. "Estimation and Use of a Multivariate Parametric Model for Simulating Heteroskedastic, Correlated, Nonnormal Random Variables: The Case of Corn Belt Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 191-205.
    6. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-170, March.
    7. Mario J. Miranda & Joseph W. Glauber, 1997. "Systemic Risk, Reinsurance, and the Failure of Crop Insurance Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 206-215.
    8. Carl H. Nelson & Paul V. Preckel, 1989. "The Conditional Beta Distribution as a Stochastic Production Function," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 370-378.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Xiaohong, 2016. "New models to estimate costs of US farm programs," ISU General Staff Papers 201601010800006209, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Phelippe-Guinvarc'h, Martial V. & Cordier, Jean E., 2006. "A private management strategy for the crop yield insurer: A theoretical approach and tests," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 35-46, August.
    3. Joshua D. Woodard & Philip Garcia, 2008. "Basis risk and weather hedging effectiveness," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 68(1), pages 99-117, May.
    4. Coble, Keith H. & Barnett, Barry J., 2008. "Implications of Integrated Commodity Programs and Crop Insurance," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 431-442, August.
    5. Zhu, Xiaohong, 2016. "New models to estimate costs of US farm programs," ISU General Staff Papers 3547, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Woodard, Joshua D. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "Weather Derivatives, Spatial Aggregation, and Systemic Risk: Implications for Reinsurance Hedging," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-18, April.
    7. Keith H. Coble & Robert Dismukes & Joseph W. Glauber, 2007. "Private Crop Insurers and the Reinsurance Fund Allocation Decision," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 582-595.

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