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U.S. Soybean Yields: Estimation and Forecasting with Non-Symmetric Disturbances

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  • Gallagher, Paul W.

Abstract

National average soybean yields are skewed with a relatively high chance of low yields. Maximum likelihood estimates support this hypothesis Revised forecasts which account for skewed yields are positioned higher than forecasts based on the illusion of a symmetric distribution Also, yield instability has been increasing steadily; the standard deviation of the soybean yield distribution is twenty-five percent higher m the late 1980s than it was in the early 1970s.

Suggested Citation

  • Gallagher, Paul W., 1987. "U.S. Soybean Yields: Estimation and Forecasting with Non-Symmetric Disturbances," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10779, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:10779
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