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Projected Sugarcane Yield in Different Climate Change Scenarios in Indian States: A State-Wise Panel Data Exploration

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  • Jyoti, Bhim
  • Singh, Ajay Kumar

Abstract

This study investigatesthe impact of climatic factors on sugarcane yield in 19 Indian states. Cobb-Douglas production function model was used to estimate the regression coefficients of explanatory variables with sugarcane yield using state-wise panel data during 1970-2017. There upon, it estimates the marginal change in sugarcane yield as 1 unit increase in climatic factors using marginal impact analysis technique. It was also projected sugarcane yield across Indian states for different years (i.e. 2040s, 2060s, 2080s and 2100s). Empirical results shows that area sown and value of production per hectare land have a positive implication on sugarcane yield. Climatic factors such as annual average maximum temperature, annual actual rainfall and precipitation show a negative impact on sugarcane yield. Sugarcane yield, therefore, decreases as increase in annual average maximum temperature, and annual actual rainfall and precipitation. Results based on marginal impact analysis technique imply that sugarcane yield is expected to be declined by 1.51% due to one-unit change in climatic factors in India. Estimates demonstrate that marginal impact of climatic factors on sugarcane yield was significantly varied across Indian states due to extreme diversity in climatic factors, geographical location, irrigation facilities, natural resources, farm management practices, use of advance technologies and fertilizer in sugarcane farming, agricultural development policies and agricultural R&D. Results imply that sugarcane yield is likely to be declined by 3.84%, 4.69%, 5.55% and 6.62% in different climate change scenarios in India. Thus, it would create extensive problems for sugarcane farmers, agricultural labours, sugar industries, consumers and government in India

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  • Jyoti, Bhim & Singh, Ajay Kumar, 2020. "Projected Sugarcane Yield in Different Climate Change Scenarios in Indian States: A State-Wise Panel Data Exploration," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 8(4), October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ijfaec:307654
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.307654
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ajay Kumar & Pritee Sharma & Sunil Kumar Ambrammal, 2015. "Climatic effects on sugarcane productivity in India: a stochastic production function application," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(2), pages 179-203.
    2. Xu, Qin & Sarker, Rakhal & Fox, Glenn & McKenney, Daniel, 2019. "Effects Of Climatic And Economic Factors On Corn And Soybean Yields In Ontario: A County Level Analysis," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 7(1), January.
    3. Ajay Kumar Singh & Jofri Issac, 2018. "Impact of Climatic and Non-climatic Factors on Sustainable Livelihood Security in Gujarat State of India: A Statistical Exploration," Agriculture and Food Sciences Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 5(1), pages 30-46.
    4. Ajay Kumar Singh & Bhim Jyoti, 2019. "Measuring the Climate Variability Impact on Cash Crops Farming in India: An Empirical Investigation," Agriculture and Food Sciences Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(2), pages 155-165.
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    10. Ajay Kumar, 2014. "Climate Change and Sugarcane Productivity in India: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 5(2), pages 111-122.
    11. Ajay Kumar Singh & K.G.S. Narayanan & Pritee Sharma, 2017. "Effect of climatic factors on cash crop farming in India: an application of Cobb-Douglas production function model," International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 13(2), pages 175-210.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thiago Vizine Da Cruz & Ricardo Luiz Machado, 2023. "Increasing Sugarcane Production Eco-Efficiency: A DEA Analysis with Different Sugarcane Varieties," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-22, July.
    2. Ashraf, Shah Nawaz & Singh, Ajay K, 2022. "Implications of appropriate technology and farm inputs in the agricultural sector of Gujarat: empirical analysis based on primary data," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 35(2), December.
    3. Ajay, Kumar Singh & Kumar, Sanjeev & Ashraf, Shah Nawaz & Jyoti, Bhim, 2022. "Implications of Farmer’s Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Agricultural Sector of Gujarat: Experience from Farm Level Data," Research on World Agricultural Economy, Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte Ltd (NASS), vol. 3(1), March.
    4. Sanjeev Kumar & Ajay K. Singh, 2023. "Modeling the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity: evidence from Himachal Pradesh, India," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 521-548, June.

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