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Why Have College Completion Rates Increased?

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  • Jeffrey T. Denning
  • Eric R. Eide
  • Kevin J. Mumford
  • Richard W. Patterson
  • Merrill Warnick

Abstract

We document that college completion rates have increased since the 1990s, after declining in the 1970s and 1980s. We find that most of the increase in graduation rates can be explained by grade inflation and that other factors, such as changing student characteristics and institutional resources, play little or no role. This is because GPA strongly predicts graduation, and GPAs have been rising since the 1990s. This finding holds in national survey data and in records from nine large public universities. We also find that at a public liberal arts college grades increased, holding performance on identical exams fixed.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey T. Denning & Eric R. Eide & Kevin J. Mumford & Richard W. Patterson & Merrill Warnick, 2022. "Why Have College Completion Rates Increased?," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 1-29, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:1-29
    DOI: 10.1257/app.20200525
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    Cited by:

    1. Seth Gershenson & Stephen B. Holt & Adam Tyner, 2024. "Making the grade: The effect of teacher grading standards on student outcomes," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 305-318, April.
    2. Valerie Bostwick & Stefanie Fischer & Matthew Lang, 2022. "Semesters or Quarters? The Effect of the Academic Calendar on Postsecondary Student Outcomes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 40-80, February.
    3. Phipps, Aaron & Amaya, Alexander, 2023. "Are students time constrained? Course load, GPA, and failing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    4. Kristin Butcher & Patrick J. McEwan & Akila Weerapana, 2024. "Making the (Letter) Grade: The Incentive Effects of Mandatory Pass/Fail Courses," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 19(3), pages 385-408, Summer.
    5. Chesney, Alexander J., 2022. "Should I get a master’s degree?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Benjamin Artz & David M. Welsch, 2021. "Overeducation and wages revisited: A two‐cohort comparison and random coefficients approach," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(3), pages 909-936, January.
    7. Denning, Jeffrey T. & Eide, Eric R. & Mumford, Kevin J. & Sabey, Daniel J., 2022. "Decreasing time to baccalaureate degree in the United States," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Contini, Dalit & Salza, Guido, 2020. "Too few university graduates. Inclusiveness and effectiveness of the Italian higher education system," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    9. Novik, Vitaliy, 2022. "The role of learning in returns to college major: evidence from 2.8 million reviews of 150,000 professors," MPRA Paper 115431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mueller, Clemens, 2023. "Reacting to Early Failure in University: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277620, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Makoto Shimoji, 2023. "Setting an exam as an information design problem," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 19(3), pages 559-579, September.
    12. Batistich, Mary Kate & Bond, Timothy N. & Linde, Sebastian & Mumford, Kevin J., 2024. "Statistical Discrimination and Optimal Mismatch in College Major Selection," IZA Discussion Papers 17237, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions

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