IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/adx/journl/v5y2023i2p146-154.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short and Long Run Effects of Monetary Policy on Food Inflation: A Study of Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Choudary Ihtasham Ali
  • Sami Ullah
  • Umar Ijaz Ahmed
  • Abd Ur Rehman
  • Hafiz Zahid Mehmood
  • Mudassar Yasin
  • Mohsin Raza

Abstract

Food plays a major role in the consumption basket of developing countries such as Pakistan, with a significant portion of the insufficient income of poor individuals spending on food. Therefore, higher food inflation severely affects the purchasing power of poor people. This study is designed to estimate the short and long-run impacts of monetary policy on food inflation in Pakistan. For this purpose, time series data from September 2005 to October 2020 was used through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The findings indicate that food inflation can become stable by restrictive monetary policy in both the short and long run. The results show that the short-run shocks can be adjusted at the speed of 13.9% per month. To tackle food inflation, a balanced monetary policy is suggested. On the other hand, a fiscal policy providing subsidized food items to people can also be implemented to tackle food inflation in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Choudary Ihtasham Ali & Sami Ullah & Umar Ijaz Ahmed & Abd Ur Rehman & Hafiz Zahid Mehmood & Mudassar Yasin & Mohsin Raza, 2023. "Short and Long Run Effects of Monetary Policy on Food Inflation: A Study of Pakistan," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 146-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:adx:journl:v:5:y:2023:i:2:p:146-154
    DOI: 10.52223/j.econimpact.2023.5203
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.52223/j.econimpact.2023.5203
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.52223/j.econimpact.2023.5203?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Péter Gábriel, 2010. "Household inflation expectations and inflation dynamics," MNB Working Papers 2010/12, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    2. Pourroy, Marc & Carton, Benjamin & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2016. "Food prices and inflation targeting in emerging economies," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 108-140.
    3. Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2019. "Optimal monetary policy in the presence of food price subsidies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 551-575.
    4. Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2003. "The Exchange Rate and Inflation in the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 585-608, November.
    5. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "US monetary policy and sectoral commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 61-85.
    6. Khan, Rana Ejaz Ali & Gill, Abid Rashid, 2007. "Impact of Supply of Money on Food and General Price Indices: A Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Catão, Luis A.V. & Chang, Roberto, 2015. "World food prices and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 69-88.
    8. Anand, Rahul & Prasad, Eswar S. & Zhang, Boyang, 2015. "What measure of inflation should a developing country central bank target?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 102-116.
    9. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2016. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 1-3.
    10. Choudary Ihtasham Ali & Sami Ullah & Umar Ijaz Ahmed & Irfan Ahmad Baig & Muhammad Arqam Iqbal & Amjad Masood, 2022. "Can Food Inflation Be Stabilized By Monetary Policy? A Quantile Regression Approach," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(3), pages 205-212.
    11. Rudrani Bhattacharya & Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2018. "Drivers and impact of food inflation in India," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 146-168, May.
    12. Hanif, Muhammad Nadim, 2014. "Monetary Policy Experience of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 60855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2008. "Exchange Rate Stability, Inflation, and Growth in (South) Eastern and Central Europe," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 530-549, August.
    14. Schotman, Peter & van Dijk, Herman K., 1991. "A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 195-238.
    15. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
    16. Bleaney, Michael & Fielding, David, 2002. "Exchange rate regimes, inflation and output volatility in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 233-245, June.
    17. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    18. Jailani, Mohamad Zaky & Masih, Mansur, 2015. "Determining the relationship between financial development and economic growth: An application of ARDL technique to Singapore," MPRA Paper 65847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Thorsten Thadewald & Herbert Buning, 2007. "Jarque-Bera Test and its Competitors for Testing Normality - A Power Comparison," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 87-105.
    20. Hamid Salman & Faisal Aftab & Rab Nawaz Lodhi, 2014. "Macroeconomic Variables And Rising Food Prices: Empirical Evidence From Pakistan," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 10(1), pages 66-81.
    21. Ashfaque H. Khan & Mohammad Ali Qasim, 1996. "Inflation in Pakistan Revisited," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 747-759.
    22. Carlos Capistr¡N & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 113-134, February.
    23. Hamid Salman & Faisal Aftab & Rab Nawaz Lodhi, 2014. "Macroeconomic Variables And Rising Food Prices: Empirical Evidence From Pakistan," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 10(1), pages 10-15.
    24. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos‐Francia, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 113-134, February.
    25. Iddrisu, Abdul-Aziz & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul, 2020. "Monetary policy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantile regression analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    26. Angeliki N. Menegaki, 2019. "The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-16, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Choudary Ihtasham Ali & Sami Ullah & Umar Ijaz Ahmed & Irfan Ahmad Baig & Muhammad Arqam Iqbal & Amjad Masood, 2022. "Can Food Inflation Be Stabilized By Monetary Policy? A Quantile Regression Approach," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(3), pages 205-212.
    2. Abdul-Aziz Iddrisu & Imhotep Paul Alagidede, 2021. "Asymmetry in food price responses to monetary policy: a quantile regression approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 1-25, March.
    3. Iddrisu, Abdul-Aziz & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul, 2020. "Monetary policy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantile regression analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Jain, Richa, 2020. "Can monetary policy stabilise food inflation? Evidence from advanced and emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 122-141.
    5. Asharani Samal & Phanindra Goyari, 2022. "Does Monetary Policy Stabilise Food Inflation in India? Evidence From Quantile Regression Analysis," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(3), pages 361-372, September.
    6. Bhattacharya. Rudrani, 2017. "Effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilising food inflation: Evidence from advanced and emerging economies," Working Papers 17/209, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    7. Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2022. "The contribution of food subsidy policy to monetary policy in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. Simranjeet Kaur, 2023. "A Decade of Impact of Monetary Policy on Food Inflation: An Overview and Future Direction," Vision, , vol. 27(4), pages 498-509, August.
    9. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," AMSE Working Papers 2308, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    10. Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2020. "Should a central bank react to food inflation? Evidence from an estimated model for Chile," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 221-234.
    11. William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2022. "The Contribution of Food Subsidy Policy to Monetary Policy in India," Working Papers hal-02944209, HAL.
    12. Armenia Androniceanu & Irina Georgescu & Ionuț Nica & Nora Chiriță, 2023. "A Comprehensive Analysis of Renewable Energy Based on Integrating Economic Cybernetics and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model—The Case of Romania," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-28, August.
    13. Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2019. "Optimal monetary policy in the presence of food price subsidies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 551-575.
    14. Marques, António Cardoso & Junqueira, Thibaut Manuel, 2022. "European energy transition: Decomposing the performance of nuclear power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    15. Górajski, Mariusz & Kuchta, Zbigniew & Leszczyńska-Paczesna, Agnieszka, 2023. "Price-setting heterogeneity and robust monetary policy in a two-sector DSGE model of a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    16. CHINEZELUM Ezebilo & AKANEGBU Benedict & MUHAMMAD Maimuna Yakubu, 2023. "Effect of Monetary Policy on Food Inflation in Nigeria: A Nardl Structural Approach," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 13(5), pages 1-6.
    17. Izunna Chima Anyikwa & Lehlohonolo Domela, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in BRICS economies," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 224-247, July.
    18. Ben Salem, Leila & Nouira, Ridha & Jeguirim, Khaled & Rault, Christophe, 2022. "The determinants of crude oil prices: Evidence from ARDL and nonlinear ARDL approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Muhammad AJMAIR & Khadim HUSSAIN & Sabahat AKRAM & Ambreen ZEB, 2017. "What determines the growth of services sector in Pakistan? A comparison of ARDL bound testing and time varying parametric estimation with general to specific approach," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 308-319, September.
    20. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2022. "Exploring the transmission mechanism of speculative and inventory arbitrage activity to commodity price volatility. Novel evidence for the US economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:adx:journl:v:5:y:2023:i:2:p:146-154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Iqbal Javed (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.scienceimpactpub.com/journals/index.php .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.