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Can monetary policy stabilise food inflation? Evidence from advanced and emerging economies

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  • Bhattacharya, Rudrani
  • Jain, Richa

Abstract

This paper addresses a long-standing political debate as how effective is monetary policy to stabilise food inflation. While a wealth of theoretical literature suggests a stabilising role of monetary policy via aggregate demand channel, there exists hardly any empirical consensus on this issue. Very recently, a limited strand of empirical literature has attempted to shed light in this arena. The present study contributes to this literature by analysing the effectiveness of aggregate demand channel in presence of production cost channel of monetary policy transmission, affecting prices positively via supply side, in a panel of developed and emerging economies for the period 2006 Q1 to 2016 Q2. We find that an unexpected monetary tightening has a positive and significant effect on food inflation in both advanced and emerging economies. Our findings suggest that in the backdrop of inflationary pressure stemming from the food sector, a monetary tightening may turn out to be destabilising for the food as well as overall inflation in the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Jain, Richa, 2020. "Can monetary policy stabilise food inflation? Evidence from advanced and emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 122-141.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:89:y:2020:i:c:p:122-141
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.10.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2022. "The contribution of food subsidy policy to monetary policy in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
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    3. Asharani Samal & Mallesh Ummalla & Phanindra Goyari, 2022. "The impact of macroeconomic factors on food price inflation: an evidence from India," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Simranjeet Kaur, 2023. "A Decade of Impact of Monetary Policy on Food Inflation: An Overview and Future Direction," Vision, , vol. 27(4), pages 498-509, August.
    5. Kumar, Ankit & Dash, Pradyumna, 2020. "Changing transmission of monetary policy on disaggregate inflation in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 109-125.
    6. Fertő, Imre & Bareith, Tibor, 2024. "Does Monetary Policy Stabilise Food Inflation in Hungary?," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 16(4), December.
    7. Bhattacharya, Rudrani, 2023. "Does Monetary Policy in India Anchor Inflation Expectation?," Working Papers 23/395, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    8. Muñoz-Villamizar, Andrés & Piatti, Matias & Mejía-Argueta, Christopher & Pirabe, Luis Felipe & Namdar, Jafar & Gomez, Juan Felipe, 2024. "Navigating retail inflation in Brazil: A machine learning and web scraping approach to the basic food basket," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Gupta, Sargam, 2024. "Inefficient shocks and optimal monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    10. Goyal, Ashima & Parab, Prashant, 2021. "What influences aggregate inflation expectations of households in India?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    11. Priya, Pragati & Sharma, Chandan, 2024. "On transmission channels of energy prices and monetary policy shocks to household consumption: Evidence from India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    12. Asharani Samal & Phanindra Goyari, 2022. "Does Monetary Policy Stabilise Food Inflation in India? Evidence From Quantile Regression Analysis," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(3), pages 361-372, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food inflation; Monetary policy; Emerging economies; Panel vector auto-regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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