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Propagation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessments: The Need to Distinguish Between Uncertainty Due to Lack of Knowledge and Uncertainty Due to Variability

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  1. Sarazin, Gabriel & Morio, Jérôme & Lagnoux, Agnès & Balesdent, Mathieu & Brevault, Loïc, 2021. "Reliability-oriented sensitivity analysis in presence of data-driven epistemic uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
  2. J. C. Helton & D. R. Anderson & H.‐N. Jow & M. G. Marietta & G. Basabilvazo, 1999. "Performance Assessment in Support of the 1996 Compliance Certification Application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(5), pages 959-986, October.
  3. Zhou, Yuekuan & Zheng, Siqian, 2020. "Uncertainty study on thermal and energy performances of a deterministic parameters based optimal aerogel glazing system using machine-learning method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
  4. Steinmann, Patrick & Auping, Willem L. & Kwakkel, Jan H., 2020. "Behavior-based scenario discovery using time series clustering," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  5. H. Christopher Frey & David E. Burmaster, 1999. "Methods for Characterizing Variability and Uncertainty: Comparison of Bootstrap Simulation and Likelihood‐Based Approaches," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 109-130, February.
  6. Junyu Zheng & H. Christopher Frey, 2004. "Quantification of Variability and Uncertainty Using Mixture Distributions: Evaluation of Sample Size, Mixing Weights, and Separation Between Components," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(3), pages 553-571, June.
  7. Amirhossein Mokhtari & H. Christopher Frey, 2005. "Sensitivity Analysis of a Two‐Dimensional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model Using Analysis of Variance," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1511-1529, December.
  8. Adam T Biggs & Kyle A Pettijohn, 2021. "Prospect theory and its implications for adversarial decision-making," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 18(2), pages 125-134, April.
  9. T. Chatzivasileiadis & F. Estrada & M. W. Hofkes & R. S. J. Tol, 2019. "Systematic Sensitivity Analysis of the Full Economic Impacts of Sea Level Rise," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 1183-1217, March.
  10. Paul S. Price & Cynthia L. Curry & Philip E. Goodrum & Michael N. Gray & Jane I. McCrodden & Natalie W. Harrington & Heather Carlson‐Lynch & Russell E. Keenan, 1996. "Monte Carlo Modeling of Time‐Dependent Exposures Using a Microexposure Event Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(3), pages 339-348, June.
  11. J. C. Helton & F. J. Davis, 2002. "Illustration of Sampling‐Based Methods for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 591-622, June.
  12. A. E. Ades & G. Lu & J. P. T. Higgins, 2005. "The Interpretation of Random-Effects Meta-Analysis in Decision Models," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 25(6), pages 646-654, November.
  13. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2002. "Variability and Uncertainty Meet Risk Management and Risk Communication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 647-654, June.
  14. G Montibeller & L A Franco, 2011. "Raising the bar: strategic multi-criteria decision analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(5), pages 855-867, May.
  15. Robert D. Water & Frank L. Parker, 1999. "Reliability Analysis for Hazardous Waste Treatment Processes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 249-259, April.
  16. S. N. Rai & D. Krewski, 1998. "Uncertainty and Variability Analysis in Multiplicative Risk Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 37-45, February.
  17. Zhou, Yuekuan & Zheng, Siqian & Zhang, Guoqiang, 2020. "Machine-learning based study on the on-site renewable electrical performance of an optimal hybrid PCMs integrated renewable system with high-level parameters’ uncertainties," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 403-418.
  18. Junyu Zheng & H. Christopher Frey, 2005. "Quantitative Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty with Known Measurement Error: Methodology and Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 663-675, June.
  19. Jon C. Helton & William L. Oberkampf & Jay D. Johnson, 2005. "Competing Failure Risk Analysis Using Evidence Theory," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(4), pages 973-995, August.
  20. Nicola Pedroni & Enrico Zio & Alberto Pasanisi & Mathieu Couplet, 2017. "A critical discussion and practical recommendations on some issues relevant to the non-probabilistic treatment of uncertainty in engineering risk assessment," Post-Print hal-01652230, HAL.
  21. Jingwen Song & Zhenzhou Lu & Pengfei Wei & Yanping Wang, 2015. "Global sensitivity analysis for model with random inputs characterized by probability-box," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(3), pages 237-253, June.
  22. Emanuele Borgonovo, 2008. "Epistemic Uncertainty in the Ranking and Categorization of Probabilistic Safety Assessment Model Elements: Issues and Findings," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 983-1001, August.
  23. Helton, Jon C. & Brooks, Dusty M. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2020. "Property values associated with the failure of individual links in a system with multiple weak and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
  24. Liu, Yushan & Li, Luyi & Zhao, Sihan & Song, Shufang, 2021. "A global surrogate model technique based on principal component analysis and Kriging for uncertainty propagation of dynamic systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
  25. Victor R. Vasquez & Wallace B. Whiting, 2005. "Accounting for Both Random Errors and Systematic Errors in Uncertainty Propagation Analysis of Computer Models Involving Experimental Measurements with Monte Carlo Methods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1669-1681, December.
  26. Natalie Commeau & Marie Cornu & Isabelle Albert & Jean‐Baptiste Denis & Eric Parent, 2012. "Hierarchical Bayesian Models to Assess Between‐ and Within‐Batch Variability of Pathogen Contamination in Food," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 395-415, March.
  27. Bas Groot Koerkamp & Theo Stijnen & Milton C. Weinstein & M. G. Myriam Hunink, 2011. "The Combined Analysis of Uncertainty and Patient Heterogeneity in Medical Decision Models," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 31(4), pages 650-661, July.
  28. Pieter Busschaert & Annemie H. Geeraerd & Mieke Uyttendaele & Jan F. Van Impe, 2011. "Sensitivity Analysis of a Two‐Dimensional Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment: Keeping Variability and Uncertainty Separated," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(8), pages 1295-1307, August.
  29. Paul S. Price & Steave H. Su & Jeff R. Harrington & Russell E. Keenan, 1996. "Uncertainty and Variation in Indirect Exposure Assessments: An Analysis of Exposure to Tetrachlorodibenzo‐p‐Dioxin from a Beef Consumption Pathway," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(2), pages 263-277, April.
  30. Helton, Jon C. & Brooks, Dusty M. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2020. "Margins associated with loss of assured safety for systems with multiple weak links and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
  31. Thomas Ying‐Jeh Chen & Valerie Nicole Washington & Terje Aven & Seth David Guikema, 2020. "Review and Evaluation of the J100‐10 Risk and Resilience Management Standard for Water and Wastewater Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 608-623, March.
  32. Nicola Pedroni & Enrico Zio & Alberto Pasanisi & Mathieu Couplet, 2017. "A Critical Discussion and Practical Recommendations on Some Issues Relevant to the Nonprobabilistic Treatment of Uncertainty in Engineering Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1315-1340, July.
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