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Uncertainty and Variation in Indirect Exposure Assessments: An Analysis of Exposure to Tetrachlorodibenzo‐p‐Dioxin from a Beef Consumption Pathway

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  • Paul S. Price
  • Steave H. Su
  • Jeff R. Harrington
  • Russell E. Keenan

Abstract

Indirect exposures to 2,3,7,8‐tetrachlorodibenzo‐p‐dioxin (TCDD) and other toxic materials released in incinerator emissions have been identified as a significant concern for human health. As a result, regulatory agencies and researchers have developed specific approaches for evaluating exposures from indirect pathways. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of the effect of uncertainty and variation in exposure parameters on the resulting estimates of TCDD dose rates received by individuals indirectly exposed to incinerator emissions through the consumption of home‐grown beef. The assessment uses a nested Monte Carlo model that separately characterizes uncertainty and variation in dose rate estimates. Uncertainty resulting from limited data on the fate and transport of TCDD are evaluated, and variations in estimated dose rates in the exposed population that result from location‐specific parameters and individuals’behaviors are characterized. The analysis indicates that lifetime average daily dose rates for individuals living within 10 km of a hypothetical incinerator range over three orders of magnitude. In contrast, the uncertainty in the dose rate distribution appears to vary by less than one order of magnitude, based on the sources of uncertainty included in this analysis. Current guidance for predicting exposures from indirect exposure pathways was found to overestimate the intakes for typical and high‐end individuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul S. Price & Steave H. Su & Jeff R. Harrington & Russell E. Keenan, 1996. "Uncertainty and Variation in Indirect Exposure Assessments: An Analysis of Exposure to Tetrachlorodibenzo‐p‐Dioxin from a Beef Consumption Pathway," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(2), pages 263-277, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:16:y:1996:i:2:p:263-277
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1996.tb01456.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. F. Owen Hoffman & Jana S. Hammonds, 1994. "Propagation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessments: The Need to Distinguish Between Uncertainty Due to Lack of Knowledge and Uncertainty Due to Variability," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(5), pages 707-712, October.
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    4. Thomas E. McKone, 1994. "Uncertainty and Variability in Human Exposures to Soil Contaminants Through Home‐Grown Food: A Monte Carlo Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 449-463, August.
    5. Alison C. Cullen, 1994. "Measures of Compounding Conservatism in Probabilistic Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 389-393, August.
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    2. Martí Nadal & Vikas Kumar & Marta Schuhmacher & José L. Domingo, 2008. "Applicability of a Neuroprobabilistic Integral Risk Index for the Environmental Management of Polluted Areas: A Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 271-286, April.

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