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Performance Assessment in Support of the 1996 Compliance Certification Application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

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  • J. C. Helton
  • D. R. Anderson
  • H.‐N. Jow
  • M. G. Marietta
  • G. Basabilvazo

Abstract

The conceptual and computational structure of a performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is described. Important parts of this structure are (1) maintenance of a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the many possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000‐year regulatory period that applies to the WIPP, and subjective uncertainty arising from the imprecision with which many of the quantities required in the analysis are known, (2) use of Latin hypercube sampling to incorporate the effects of subjective uncertainty, (3) use of Monte Carlo (i.e., random) sampling to incorporate the effects of stochastic uncertainty, and (4) efficient use of the necessarily limited number of mechanistic calculations that can be performed to support the analysis. The WIPP is under development by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (i.e., deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste, with the indicated PA supporting a Compliance Certification Application (CCA) by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in October 1996 for the necessary certifications for the WIPP to begin operation. The EPA certified the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste in May 1998, with the result that the WIPP will be the first operational facility in the United States for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste.

Suggested Citation

  • J. C. Helton & D. R. Anderson & H.‐N. Jow & M. G. Marietta & G. Basabilvazo, 1999. "Performance Assessment in Support of the 1996 Compliance Certification Application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(5), pages 959-986, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:19:y:1999:i:5:p:959-986
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00453.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. C. Helton & A. W. Shiver, 1996. "A Monte Carlo Procedure for the Construction of Complementary Cumulative Distribution Functions for Comparison with the EPA Release Limits for Radioactive Waste Disposal," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(1), pages 43-55, February.
    2. J. C. Helton & D. R. Anderson & M. G. Marietta & R. P. Rechard, 1997. "Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: From Regulation to Calculation for 40 CFR 191.13," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 45(2), pages 157-177, April.
    3. F. Owen Hoffman & Jana S. Hammonds, 1994. "Propagation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessments: The Need to Distinguish Between Uncertainty Due to Lack of Knowledge and Uncertainty Due to Variability," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(5), pages 707-712, October.
    4. Ronald L. Iman & Jon C. Helton, 1988. "An Investigation of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Techniques for Computer Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), pages 71-90, March.
    5. Ronald L. Iman & Jon C. Helton, 1991. "The Repeatability of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses for Complex Probabilistic Risk Assessments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), pages 591-606, December.
    6. Jon C. Helton, 1994. "Treatment of Uncertainty in Performance Assessments for Complex Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 483-511, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell, 2002. "Risk and Uncertainty Analysis in Government Safety Decisions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 633-646, June.

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