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Monte Carlo Modeling of Time‐Dependent Exposures Using a Microexposure Event Approach

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  • Paul S. Price
  • Cynthia L. Curry
  • Philip E. Goodrum
  • Michael N. Gray
  • Jane I. McCrodden
  • Natalie W. Harrington
  • Heather Carlson‐Lynch
  • Russell E. Keenan

Abstract

Over the last 10 years, a number of researchers have used Monte Carlo analysts to investigate the variation in long‐term average dose rates in exposed populations and the uncertainty in estimates of long‐term average dose rates for specific individuals. In general, these researchers have modeled long‐term exposures using simple dose rate equations which assume that individuals are exposed to a single environmental concentration at a constant rate over a specified exposure duration. This paper presents an alternative approach for modeling long‐term average exposures called microexposure event modeling which addresses a number of shortcomings in traditional dose rate equations. The paper discusses the limitations of the traditional dose rate equation, presents a description of the methodology, and illustrates advantages of the approach with a case study.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul S. Price & Cynthia L. Curry & Philip E. Goodrum & Michael N. Gray & Jane I. McCrodden & Natalie W. Harrington & Heather Carlson‐Lynch & Russell E. Keenan, 1996. "Monte Carlo Modeling of Time‐Dependent Exposures Using a Microexposure Event Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(3), pages 339-348, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:16:y:1996:i:3:p:339-348
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1996.tb01468.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. F. Owen Hoffman & Jana S. Hammonds, 1994. "Propagation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessments: The Need to Distinguish Between Uncertainty Due to Lack of Knowledge and Uncertainty Due to Variability," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(5), pages 707-712, October.
    2. Kenneth T. Bogen & Robert C. Spear, 1987. "Integrating Uncertainty and Interindividual Variability in Environmental Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(4), pages 427-436, December.
    3. Brent Finley & Deborah Proctor & Paul Scott & Natalie Harrington & Dennis Paustenbach & Paul Price, 1994. "Recommended Distributions for Exposure Factors Frequently Used in Health Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 533-553, August.
    4. Kimberly M. Thompson & David E. Burmaster & Edmund A.C. Crouch3, 1992. "Monte Carlo Techniques for Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis in Public Health Risk Assessments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 53-63, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Amélie Crepet & Hugo Harari-Kermadec & Jessica Tressou, 2007. "Using Empirical Likelihood to Combine Data : Application to Food Risk Assessment," Working Papers 2007-20, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.

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