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The importance of global economic policy uncertainty in predicting gold futures market volatility: A GARCH‐MIDAS approach

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  1. Wen, Jun & Khalid, Samia & Mahmood, Hamid & Zakaria, Muhammad, 2021. "Symmetric and asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on food prices in China: A new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  2. Segnon, Mawuli & Gupta, Rangan & Wilfling, Bernd, 2024. "Forecasting stock market volatility with regime-switching GARCH-MIDAS: The role of geopolitical risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 29-43.
  3. Li, Dongxin & Zhang, Li & Li, Lihong, 2023. "Forecasting stock volatility with economic policy uncertainty: A smooth transition GARCH-MIDAS model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  4. Yun-Shi Dai & Peng-Fei Dai & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2024. "The impact of geopolitical risk on the international agricultural market: Empirical analysis based on the GJR-GARCH-MIDAS model," Papers 2404.01641, arXiv.org.
  5. Xinyu Wu & Xuebao Yin & Xueting Mei, 2022. "Forecasting the Volatility of European Union Allowance Futures with Climate Policy Uncertainty Using the EGARCH-MIDAS Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, April.
  6. Mei, Dexiang & Zeng, Qing & Zhang, Yaojie & Hou, Wenjing, 2018. "Does US Economic Policy Uncertainty matter for European stock markets volatility?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 215-221.
  7. Youtao Xiang & Sumuya Borjigin, 2024. "High–low volatility spillover network between economic policy uncertainty and commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(8), pages 1295-1319, August.
  8. Dai, Peng-Fei & Xiong, Xiong & Duc Huynh, Toan Luu & Wang, Jiqiang, 2022. "The impact of economic policy uncertainties on the volatility of European carbon market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
  9. Ngo, Vu Minh & Nguyen, Phuc Van & Hoang, Yen Hai, 2024. "The impacts of geopolitical risks on gold, oil and financial reserve management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  10. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
  11. Zhuo Huang & Fang Liang & Chen Tong, 2021. "The predictive power of macroeconomic uncertainty for commodity futures volatility," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 989-1012, September.
  12. Shirui Wang & Tianyang Zhang, 2024. "Predictability of commodity futures returns with machine learning models," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 302-322, February.
  13. Zhou, Yuqin & Liu, Zhenhua & Wu, Shan, 2022. "The global economic policy uncertainty spillover analysis: In the background of COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  14. O-Chia Chuang & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Buliao Shu, 2024. "Financial Uncertainty and Gold Market Volatility: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS Approach with Variable Selection," Working Papers 202441, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  15. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Liu, Jing & Yang, Lin, 2020. "Forecasting stock price volatility: New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 684-694.
  16. Ayinde, Taofeek O. & Olaniran, Abeeb O. & Abolade, Onomeabure C. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula Ephraim, 2023. "Technology shocks - Gold market connection: Is the effect episodic to business cycle behaviour?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  17. Duc Khuong Nguyen & Thomas Walther, 2020. "Modeling and forecasting commodity market volatility with long‐term economic and financial variables," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 126-142, March.
  18. Karanasos, M. & Yfanti, S., 2021. "On the Economic fundamentals behind the Dynamic Equicorrelations among Asset classes: Global evidence from Equities, Real estate, and Commodities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  19. Ye, Wuyi & Guo, Ranran & Deschamps, Bruno & Jiang, Ying & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2021. "Macroeconomic forecasts and commodity futures volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 981-994.
  20. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2024. "Macro‐financial linkages in the high‐frequency domain: Economic fundamentals and the Covid‐induced uncertainty channel in US and UK financial markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1581-1608, April.
  21. Wei, Yu & Liang, Chao & Li, Yan & Zhang, Xunhui & Wei, Guiwu, 2020. "Can CBOE gold and silver implied volatility help to forecast gold futures volatility in China? Evidence based on HAR and Ridge regression models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
  22. Yu, Miao & Song, Jinguo, 2018. "Volatility forecasting: Global economic policy uncertainty and regime switching," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 511(C), pages 316-323.
  23. Chao Liang & Feng Ma & Lu Wang & Qing Zeng, 2021. "The information content of uncertainty indices for natural gas futures volatility forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1310-1324, November.
  24. Luu Duc Huynh, Toan, 2020. "The effect of uncertainty on the precious metals market: New insights from Transfer Entropy and Neural Network VAR," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  25. Liu, Jing & Chen, Zhonglu, 2023. "How do stock prices respond to the leading economic indicators? Analysis of large and small shocks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  26. Lang, Qiaoqi & Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng & Huang, Dengshi, 2022. "Oil futures volatility predictability: Evidence based on Twitter-based uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
  27. Dinh, Theu & Goutte, Stéphane & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Walther, Thomas, 2022. "Economic drivers of volatility and correlation in precious metal markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
  28. Bakhsh, Satar & Zhang, Wei, 2023. "How does natural resource price volatility affect economic performance? A threshold effect of economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  29. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Omer Faruk Derindag & Nuri Hacievliyagil & Mehmet Canakci, 2022. "Exchange rate response to economic policy uncertainty: evidence beyond asymmetry," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, December.
  30. Xu Gong & Mingchao Wang & Liuguo Shao, 2022. "The impact of macro economy on the oil price volatility from the perspective of mixing frequency," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4487-4514, October.
  31. Wu, Xinyu & Xie, Haibin, 2021. "A realized EGARCH-MIDAS model with higher moments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
  32. Lyu, Yongjian & Qin, Fanshu & Ke, Rui & Wei, Yu & Kong, Mengzhen, 2024. "Does mixed frequency variables help to forecast value at risk in the crude oil market?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  33. Zeng, Qing & Ma, Feng & Lu, Xinjie & Xu, Weiju, 2022. "Policy uncertainty and carbon neutrality: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
  34. Feng Ma & Xinjie Lu & Lu Wang & Julien Chevallier, 2021. "Global economic policy uncertainty and gold futures market volatility: Evidence from Markov regime‐switching GARCH‐MIDAS models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1070-1085, September.
  35. M. Karanasos & S. Yfanti & J. Hunter, 2022. "Emerging stock market volatility and economic fundamentals: the importance of US uncertainty spillovers, financial and health crises," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1077-1116, June.
  36. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Is factionalism a push for gold price?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  37. Jun Wen & Samia Khalid & Hamid Mahmood & Xiuyun Yang, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and growth nexus in Pakistan: a new evidence using NARDL model," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1701-1715, August.
  38. Xu Gong & Yujing Jin & Chuanwang Sun, 2022. "Time‐varying pure contagion effect between energy and nonenergy commodity markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(10), pages 1960-1986, October.
  39. Adediran, Idris A. & Yinusa, Olalekan D. & Lakhani, Kanwal Hammad, 2021. "Where lies the silver lining when uncertainty hang dark clouds over the global financial markets?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  40. Li, Tao & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Xuehua & Zhang, Yaojie, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the Chinese stock market volatility: Novel evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 24-33.
  41. Ren, Yinghua & Tan, Anqi & Zhu, Huiming & Zhao, Wanru, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive nonlinear risk spillover in the commodity futures market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  42. Li, Xiafei & Guo, Qiang & Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Forecasting gold volatility with geopolitical risk indices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  43. Xunfa Lu & Zhitao Ye & Kin Keung Lai & Hairong Cui & Xiao Lin, 2022. "Time-Varying Causalities in Prices and Volatilities between the Cross-Listed Stocks in Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong Stock Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-19, February.
  44. Christian Conrad & Anessa Custovic & Eric Ghysels, 2018. "Long- and Short-Term Cryptocurrency Volatility Components: A GARCH-MIDAS Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-12, May.
  45. Yu, Xiaoling & Huang, Yirong, 2021. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock volatility: Evidence from GARCH–MIDAS approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 570(C).
  46. Xiafei Li & Dongxin Li & Xuhui Zhang & Guiwu Wei & Lan Bai & Yu Wei, 2021. "Forecasting regular and extreme gold price volatility: The roles of asymmetry, extreme event, and jump," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1501-1523, December.
  47. Jian Liu & Ziting Zhang & Lizhao Yan & Fenghua Wen, 2021. "Forecasting the volatility of EUA futures with economic policy uncertainty using the GARCH-MIDAS model," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
  48. Simona Bigerna & Maria Chiara D’Errico & Paolo Polinori & Paul Simshauser, 2023. "Net-Zero Policy vs Energy Security: The Impact on GCC Countries," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(1_suppl), pages 1-32, November.
  49. Ghani, Maria & Guo, Qiang & Ma, Feng & Li, Tao, 2022. "Forecasting Pakistan stock market volatility: Evidence from economic variables and the uncertainty index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1180-1189.
  50. Xu Gong & Boqiang Lin, 2021. "Effects of structural changes on the prediction of downside volatility in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1124-1153, July.
  51. Shao, Liuguo & Zhang, Hua & Chen, Jinyu & Zhu, Xuehong, 2021. "Effect of oil price uncertainty on clean energy metal stocks in China: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 407-419.
  52. Yu Wei & Lan Bai & Kun Yang & Guiwu Wei, 2021. "Are industry‐level indicators more helpful to forecast industrial stock volatility? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers index," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 17-39, January.
  53. Dai, Peng-Fei & Xiong, Xiong & Zhang, Jin & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "The role of global economic policy uncertainty in predicting crude oil futures volatility: Evidence from a two-factor GARCH-MIDAS model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  54. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri & Qiang Ji, 2022. "Mixed‐frequency forecasting of crude oil volatility based on the information content of global economic conditions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 134-157, January.
  55. Damien Kunjal & Faeezah Peerbhai & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2022. "Political, economic, and financial country risks and the volatility of the South African Exchange Traded Fund market: A GARCH-MIDAS approach," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 236-258, September.
  56. Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad & Ma, Feng & Huynh, Toan L.D., 2022. "Climate policy uncertainty and world renewable energy index volatility forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
  57. Libo Yin & Jing Nie & Liyan Han, 2020. "Intermediary asset pricing in commodity futures returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(11), pages 1711-1730, November.
  58. Su, Chi-Wei & Pang, Lidong & Umar, Muhammad & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia, 2022. "Does gold's hedging uncertainty aura fade away?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  59. Brahmana, Rayenda Khresna, 2022. "Do Machine Learning Approaches Have the Same Accuracy in Forecasting Cryptocurrencies Volatilities?," MPRA Paper 119598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  60. Xie, Xiaoyu & Zhu, Heliang, 2021. "The role of gold futures in mitigating the impact of economic uncertainty on spot prices: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
  61. Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Lasisi, Lukman & Olaniran, Abeeb, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and stock market volatility in emerging markets: A GARCH – MIDAS approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  62. Zhang, Pengcheng & Kong, Deli & Xu, Kunpeng & Qi, Jiayin, 2024. "Global economic policy uncertainty and the stability of cryptocurrency returns: The role of liquidity volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
  63. Dou, Yue & Li, Yiying & Dong, Kangyin & Ren, Xiaohang, 2022. "Dynamic linkages between economic policy uncertainty and the carbon futures market: Does Covid-19 pandemic matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  64. Wang, Lu & Wu, Jiangbin & Cao, Yang & Hong, Yanran, 2022. "Forecasting renewable energy stock volatility using short and long-term Markov switching GARCH-MIDAS models: Either, neither or both?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  65. Guo, Yaoqi & Shi, Fengyuan & Lin, Boqiang & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "The impact of oil shocks from different sources on China's clean energy metal stocks: An analysis of spillover effects based on a time-varying perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  66. Gong, Yuting & Li, Xiao & Xue, Wenjun, 2023. "The impact of EPU spillovers on the bond market volatility: Global evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
  67. Aswini Kumar Mishra & Anand Theertha Nakhate & Yash Bagra & Abinash Singh & Bibhu Prasad Kar, 2024. "The Impact of Directional Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on Indian Stock Market Volatility: New Evidence," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(3), pages 423-452, September.
  68. Chen, Juan & Xiao, Zuoping & Bai, Jiancheng & Guo, Hongling, 2023. "Predicting volatility in natural gas under a cloud of uncertainties," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  69. Guo, Xiaozhu & Huang, Yisu & Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Forecasting volatility of EUA futures: New evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  70. Oğuz Tümtürk, 2022. "Global Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(37), pages 69-84, December.
  71. Dai, Peng-Fei & Xiong, Xiong & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2021. "A global economic policy uncertainty index from principal component analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
  72. Maria Ghani & Usman Ghani, 2024. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Emerging Stock Market Volatility," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(1), pages 165-181, March.
  73. Chi-Wei Su & Lidong Pang & Muhammad Umar & Oana-Ramona Lobonţ, 2022. "Will Gold Always Shine amid World Uncertainty?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(12), pages 3425-3438, September.
  74. Wang, Lu & Wu, Rui & Ma, WeiChun & Xu, Weiju, 2023. "Examining the volatility of soybean market in the MIDAS framework: The importance of bagging-based weather information," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
  75. Chen, Liming & Du, Ziqing & Hu, Zhihao, 2020. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on exchange rate volatility of China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
  76. Yu, Fanchao, 2023. "Macroeconomic information, global economic policy uncertainty and gold futures return predictability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
  77. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.
  78. Botshekan , Mohammad Hashem & Takaloo , Amir & H. soureh , Reza & Abdollahi Poor , Mohammad Sadegh, 2021. "Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) and Non-Performing Loans (NPL) in Iran's Banking System: Dynamic Correlation using the DCC-GARCH Approach," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 16(2), pages 187-212, June.
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