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On the Validity of the Regression Discontinuity Design for Estimating Electoral Effects: New Evidence from Over 40,000 Close Races

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Cited by:

  1. Quentin Lippmann, 2023. "Persistence of incumbents and female access to political positions," Post-Print hal-04103626, HAL.
  2. Choy, Stacey & Jiang, Shushu & Liao, Scott & Wang, Emma, 2024. "Public environmental enforcement and private lender monitoring: Evidence from environmental covenants," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2).
  3. Vincent Pons & Clémence Tricaud, 2018. "Expressive Voting and Its Cost: Evidence From Runoffs With Two or Three Candidates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1621-1649, September.
  4. Santosh Anagol & Thomas Fujiwara, 2016. "The Runner-Up Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 927-991.
  5. Sugat Chaturvedi & Sabyasachi Das & Kanika Mahajan, 2021. "The importance of being earnest: What explains the gender quota effect in politics?," Discussion Papers 21-02, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.
  6. Lippmann, Quentin, 2023. "Persistence of incumbents and female access to political positions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 327-349.
  7. Luca Bellodi & Massimo Morelli & Matia Vannoni, 2021. "A Costly Commitment: Populism, Government Performance, and the Quality of Bureaucracy," CESifo Working Paper Series 9470, CESifo.
  8. Makkar, Karan, 2023. "Defector Politicians and Economic Growth: Evidence from India," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  9. Borgschulte, Mark & Vogler, Jacob, 2019. "Run for your life? The effect of close elections on the life expectancy of politicians," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 18-32.
  10. Magdalena Delaporte & Francisco Pino, 2022. "Female Political Representation and Violence Against Women: Evidence from Brazil," Working Papers wp534, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
  11. Leandro De Magalhães & Salomo Hirvonen, 2015. "Multi-Office Incumbency Advantage: Political Careers in Brazil," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 15/662, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  12. Ganslmeier, Michael, 2023. "Are Campaign Promises Effective?," EconStor Preprints 274069, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  13. Labonne, Julien & Parsa, Sahar & Querubin, Pablo, 2021. "Political dynasties, term limits and female political representation: Evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 212-228.
  14. Quinckhardt, Matthias, 2023. "The value of a party: Local politics and the allocation of intergovernmental transfers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  15. Gary Cornwall & Beau Sauley, 2021. "Indirect effects and causal inference: reconsidering regression discontinuity," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-28, December.
  16. Hossain, Marup & Hossain, Md Amzad, 2024. "Political alignment and organized violence: Evidence from Nigeria," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 394-426.
  17. Roberto Bonfatti & Giovanni Facchini & Alexander Tarasov & Gian Luca Tedeschi & Cecilia Testa, 2021. "Pork, infrastructure and growth: Evidence from the Italian railway expansion," Discussion Papers 2021-04, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).
  18. Nicolás Francisco Abbate & Bruno Jimnez, 2022. "Do Minimum Wage Hikes Lead to Employment Destruction? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design in Argentina," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4533, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
  19. Andrew Bertoli & Allan Dafoe & Robert Trager, 2024. "Leader age and international conflict: A regression discontinuity analysis," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 61(4), pages 643-658, July.
  20. Bovay, John, 2021. "Moral hazard under discrete information disclosure: Evidence from food-safety inspections," 2021 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting (Virtual), January 3-5, 2021, San Diego, California 307948, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  21. Felix Arnold, 2015. "Turnout and Closeness: Evidence from 60 Years of Bavarian Mayoral Elections," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1462, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  22. Lehne, Jonathan & Shapiro, Jacob N. & Vanden Eynde, Oliver, 2018. "Building connections: Political corruption and road construction in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 62-78.
  23. Prakash, Nishith & Sahoo, Soham & Saraswat, Deepak & Sindhi, Reetika, 2022. "When Criminality Begets Crime: The Role of Elected Politicians in India," IZA Discussion Papers 15259, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  24. Biswajit Banerjee & Risto Herrala, 2024. "Testing the impact of liquidation speed on leverage using Indian data," Working Papers 113, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
  25. John Bovay, 2025. "Shaming, stringency, and shirking: Evidence from food‐safety inspections," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 107(1), pages 152-180, January.
  26. Ari Hyytinen & Jaakko Meriläinen & Tuukka Saarimaa & Otto Toivanen & Janne Tukiainen, 2018. "When does regression discontinuity design work? Evidence from random election outcomes," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 1019-1051, July.
  27. Stefano Gagliarducci & M Daniele Paserman, 2022. "Gender Differences in Cooperative Environments? Evidence from The U.S. Congress," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(641), pages 218-257.
  28. de Grip, Andries & Fouarge, Didier & Montizaan, Raymond, 2020. "Redistribution of individual pension wealth to survivor pensions: Evidence from a stated preferences analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 402-421.
  29. Andrew C. Eggers & Ronny Freier & Veronica Grembi & Tommaso Nannicini, 2018. "Regression Discontinuity Designs Based on Population Thresholds: Pitfalls and Solutions," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(1), pages 210-229, January.
  30. Emilio Depetris-Chauvin & Ruben Durante & Emilio Gutierrez, 2022. "Political Alignment and Inter-Jurisdictional Cooperation: Evidence from Crime in Mexico," Working Papers 178, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
  31. Schmutz, Benoît & Verdugo, Gregory, 2023. "Do elections affect immigration? Evidence from French municipalities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
  32. Lahoti, Rahul & Sahoo, Soham, 2020. "Are educated leaders good for education? Evidence from India," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 42-62.
  33. Leopoldo Fergusson & Pablo Querubin & Nelson A. Ruiz & Juan F. Vargas, 2021. "The Real Winner's Curse," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 52-68, January.
  34. Jung Sakong, 2021. "Identifying Taste-Based Discrimination: Effect of Black Electoral Victories on Racial Prejudice and Economic Gaps," Working Paper Series WP-2021-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  35. Andersson, Josefine, 2018. "Early counselling of displaced workers - effects of collectively funded job search assistance," Working Paper Series 2018:22, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  36. Aarts, Bas & Künn, Annemarie, 2019. "Employability: the employers’ perspective," ROA Report 006, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
  37. Quoc-Anh Do & Yen-Teik Lee & Bang Dang Nguyen, 2013. "Political Connections and Firm Value: Evidence from the Regression Discontinuity Design of Close Gubernatorial Elections," Working Papers hal-03460972, HAL.
  38. Thushyanthan Baskaran & Sonia Bhalotra & Brian Min & Yogesh Uppal, 2024. "Women legislators and economic performance," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 151-214, June.
  39. Wenchi Wei, 2021. "State fiscal constraint and local overrides: a regression discontinuity design estimation of the fiscal effects," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(3), pages 347-373, December.
  40. Muhammad Haseeb & Kate Vyborny, 2016. "Imposing institutions: Evidence from cash transfer reform in Pakistan," CSAE Working Paper Series 2016-36, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  41. Hyytinen, Ari & Meriläinen, Jaakko & Saarimaa, Tuukka & Toivanen, Otto & Tukiainen, Janne, 2018. "Public Employees as Politicians: Evidence from Close Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 68-81, February.
  42. Kirsten Cornelson & Boriana Miloucheva, 2020. "Political polarization, social fragmentation, and cooperation during a pandemic," Working Papers tecipa-663, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  43. Stephan Schneider & Sven Kunze, 2021. "Disastrous Discretion: Ambiguous Decision Situations Foster Political Favoritism," KOF Working papers 21-491, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  44. Sonia Bhalotra & Irma Clots-Figueras & Lakshmi Iyer, "undated". "Pathbreakers? Women’s Electoral Success and Future Political Participation," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-277, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  45. Christa N. Brunnschweiler & Samuel Kwabena Obeng, 2020. "Rewarding Allegiance: Political Alignment and Fiscal Outcomes in Local Government," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-05, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  46. Fernanda Brollo & Katja Kaufmann & Eliana La Ferrara, 2020. "The Political Economy of Program Enforcement: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 750-791.
  47. Benoît SCHMUTZ & Grégory VERDUGO, 2020. "Do Politicians Shape the Electorate ? Evidence from French Municipalities," Working Papers 2020-18, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics, revised 01 Apr 2021.
  48. Quoc-Anh Do & Yen-Teik Lee & Bang Dang Nguyen, 2016. "Directors as Connectors: The Impact of the External Networks of Directors on Firms," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03393196, HAL.
  49. Stommes, Drew & Aronow, P. M. & Sävje, Fredrik, 2023. "On the Reliability of Published Findings Using the Regression Discontinuity Design in Political Science," I4R Discussion Paper Series 22, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
  50. Araico Cordero, Armando & Bandiera, Antonella & González Luna, Esteban A. & Meriläinen, Jaakko, 2024. "When fortune favors women: Do marginal increases in female representation persist?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
  51. Leandro De Magalhaes & Isabel Spirgel-Sinclair, 2021. "Could Regression Discontinuity estimates of incumbency e ects help monitor parliamentary elections? Evidence from Malawi," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 21/741, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  52. Luca Repetto & Maximiliano Sosa Andrés, 2022. "Divided Government and Polarization: Regression-Discontinuity Evidence from US States," CESifo Working Paper Series 9823, CESifo.
  53. Jain, Chandan & Kashyap, Shagun & Lahoti, Rahul & Sahoo, Soham, 2023. "The impact of educated leaders on economic development: Evidence from India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 1068-1093.
  54. Aaron A. Elrod & Serkan Karadas & Katherine C. Theyson, 2019. "The effect of gubernatorial political parties on monitoring and enforcement of federal environmental regulation: evidence from the Clean Water Act," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 21(2), pages 171-202, April.
  55. Quoc-Anh Do & Yen-Teik Lee & Bang Dang Nguyen, 2013. "Political Connections and Firm Value: Evidence from the Regression Discontinuity Design of Close Gubernatorial Elections," Working Papers hal-03460972, HAL.
  56. Yoon-Jung Choi, 2022. "Property tax interaction among overlapping local jurisdictions: quasi-experimental evidence from school bond referenda," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(3), pages 537-580, June.
  57. Kirsten Cornelson & Boriana Miloucheva, 2022. "Political polarization and cooperation during a pandemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(9), pages 2025-2049, September.
  58. Gregory J. Wawro & Ira Katznelson, 2020. "American political development and new challenges of causal inference," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(3), pages 299-314, December.
  59. Dirk Heider & Herbert Matschinger & Andreas D Meid & Renate Quinzler & Jürgen-Bernhard Adler & Christian Günster & Walter E Haefeli & Hans-Helmut König, 2018. "The impact of potentially inappropriate medication on the development of health care costs and its moderation by the number of prescribed substances. Results of a retrospective matched cohort study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(7), pages 1-12, July.
  60. Meriläinen, Jaakko & Tukiainen, Janne, 2016. "Primary Effect in Open-List Elections," Working Papers 79, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
  61. Bartnicki, Sławomir & Alimowski, Maciej & Górecki, Maciej A., 2022. "The anomalous electoral advantage: Evidence from over 17,000 mayoral candidacies in Poland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  62. Lyytikäinen, Teemu & Tukiainen, Janne, 2019. "Are voters rational?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 230-242.
  63. Morelli, Massimo & Bellodi, Luca & Vannoni, Matia, 2021. "The Costs of Populism for the Bureaucracy and Government Performance:," CEPR Discussion Papers 15929, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  64. Fontana, Nicola & Nannicini, Tommaso & Tabellini, Guido, 2023. "Historical roots of political extremism: The effects of Nazi occupation of Italy," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 723-743.
  65. Nina Drange & Trude Gunnes & Kjetil Telle, 2021. "Workload, staff composition, and sickness absence: findings from employees in child care centers," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3375-3400, December.
  66. Fernando Aragón & Ricardo Pique, 2020. "Better the devil you know? Reelected politicians and policy outcomes under no term limits," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 182(1), pages 1-16, January.
  67. Francisco Pino, 2014. "Is There Gender Bias Among Voters ?Evidence from the Chilean Congressional Elections," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-53, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  68. Adam C. Sales & Ben B. Hansen, 2020. "Limitless Regression Discontinuity," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 45(2), pages 143-174, April.
  69. Christian Dippel, 2022. "Political Parties Do Matter in US Cities . . . for Their Unfunded Pensions," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 33-54, August.
  70. Jerome Archambault & Stanley L. Winer, 2023. "Political Competitiveness, Regression Discontinuity and the Incumbency Effect," CESifo Working Paper Series 10356, CESifo.
  71. Saarimaa, Tuukka & Tukiainen, Janne, 2016. "Local representation and strategic voting: Evidence from electoral boundary reforms," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 31-45.
  72. Prato, Carlo & Wolton, Stephane, 2014. "Electoral Imbalances and their Consequences," MPRA Paper 68650, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Nov 2015.
  73. Wagner, Wolf & Lambert, Thomas & Zhang, Eden Quxian, 2020. "Banks, Political Capital, and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 15612, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  74. Aneja, Abhay & Ritadhi, S.K., 2022. "Can political parties improve minority wellbeing? Evidence from India’s “Silent Revolution”," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  75. Quoc-Anh Do & Yen-Teik Lee & Bang Dang Nguyen, 2016. "Directors as Connectors: The Impact of the External Networks of Directors on Firms," Post-Print hal-03393196, HAL.
  76. Keita, Sekou & Mandon, Pierre, 2018. "Give a fish or teach fishing? Partisan affiliation of U.S. governors and the poverty status of immigrants," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 65-96.
  77. Abou-Chadi, Tarik & Krause, Werner, 2020. "The Causal Effect of Radical Right Success on Mainstream Parties’ Policy Positions: A Regression Discontinuity Approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 50(3), pages 829-847.
  78. Lind, Jo Thori, 2020. "Rainy day politics. An instrumental variables approach to the effect of parties on political outcomes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  79. Ercolani Valerio & Pavoni Nicola, 2019. "The Precautionary Saving Effect of Government Consumption," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-32, January.
  80. Andersson, Josefine, 2018. "Financial incentives to work for disability insurance recipients - Sweden’s special rules for continuous deduction," Working Paper Series 2018:7, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  81. Albert Chiu & Xingchen Lan & Ziyi Liu & Yiqing Xu, 2023. "Causal Panel Analysis under Parallel Trends: Lessons from A Large Reanalysis Study," Papers 2309.15983, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
  82. Repetto, Luca & Andrés, Maximiliano Sosa, 2023. "Divided government, polarization, and policy: Regression-discontinuity evidence from US states," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  83. Christian Dippel, 2019. "Political Parties Do Matter in U.S. Cities ... For Their Unfunded Pensions," NBER Working Papers 25601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  84. Lewis, Blane D. & Nguyen, Hieu T.M. & Hendrawan, Adrianus, 2020. "Political accountability and public service delivery in decentralized Indonesia: Incumbency advantage and the performance of second term mayors," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  85. Jaakko Meriläinen, 2019. "Single‐Party Rule, Public Spending, and Political Rents: Evidence from Finnish Municipalities," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(2), pages 736-762, April.
  86. Riako Granzier & Vincent Pons & Clemence Tricaud, 2023. "Coordination and Bandwagon Effects: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 177-217, October.
  87. Felix Arnold, 2018. "Turnout and Closeness: Evidence from 60 Years of Bavarian Mayoral Elections," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 120(2), pages 624-653, April.
  88. Luca Bellodi & Massimo Morelli & Matia Vannoni, 2021. "The Costs of Populism for the Bureaucracy and Government Performance: Evidence from Italian Municipalities," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21158, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  89. Andrew Bertoli & Allan Dafoe & Robert F. Trager, 2019. "Is There a War Party? Party Change, the Left–Right Divide, and International Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(4), pages 950-975, April.
  90. Jin‐young Choi & Myoung‐jae Lee, 2023. "Score manipulation, density continuity and intent‐to‐treat effect for regression discontinuity," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 552-569, October.
  91. Jain, Chandan & Kashyap, Shagun & Lahoti, Rahul & Sahoo, Soham, 2022. "Do Educated Leaders Affect Economic Development? Evidence from India," IZA Discussion Papers 15278, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  92. Gouvêa, Raphael & Girardi, Daniele, 2021. "Partisanship and local fiscal policy: Evidence from Brazilian cities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  93. Brian Beach & Daniel B. Jones, 2017. "Gridlock: Ethnic Diversity in Government and the Provision of Public Goods," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 112-136, February.
  94. Lucas M. Novaes & Luis E. Schiumerini, 2016. "Exogenous Commodity Shocks And The Electoral Returns To Office: Evidence From Brazil," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 076, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  95. Brown, Craig O., 2020. "Economic leadership and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 298-333.
  96. Jun Ma & Zhengfei Yu, 2020. "Empirical Likelihood Covariate Adjustment for Regression Discontinuity Designs," Papers 2008.09263, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
  97. Zhong, Yuchen, 2023. "Does electing criminally accused politicians affect the constituency level Maoist incidents? Evidence from India," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 65, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
  98. Thomas Lambert & Wolf Wagner & Eden Quxian Zhang, 2023. "Banks, Political Capital, and Growth," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(3), pages 613-655.
  99. Cerqua, Augusto & Pellegrini, Guido, 2022. "Decomposing the employment effects of investment subsidies," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  100. Sam Asher & Paul Novosad, 2017. "Politics and Local Economic Growth: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 229-273, January.
  101. Luca Bellodi & Massimo Morelli & Matia Vannoni, 2021. "The Costs of Populism for the Bureaucracy and Government Performance: Evidence from Italian Municipalities," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21158, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
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