IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/poleco/v72y2022ics0176268021000951.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The anomalous electoral advantage: Evidence from over 17,000 mayoral candidacies in Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Bartnicki, Sławomir
  • Alimowski, Maciej
  • Górecki, Maciej A.

Abstract

Relying on a dataset covering mayoral elections in Poland held over the period 2006–2018, we contribute to the ongoing debate on the anomalous sources of advantage enjoyed by certain candidates contesting close electoral races. While our analysis lends support to earlier conjectures that such anomalies tend to be confined to small jurisdictions, we also point to context-specific clientelistic strategies behind the anomalous advantage. The last is driven largely by an experience of holding a mayoral office in the 1990s, an era when Polish mayors were elected by local councils rather than directly by citizens. When interpreting these findings, we emphasize fundamental characteristics of post-transition Polish local democracy, including feudal legacy, pauperization of the electorate and decentralization of public spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Bartnicki, Sławomir & Alimowski, Maciej & Górecki, Maciej A., 2022. "The anomalous electoral advantage: Evidence from over 17,000 mayoral candidacies in Poland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:72:y:2022:i:c:s0176268021000951
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102109
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268021000951
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102109?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tomasz Zarycki, 2000. "Politics in the Periphery: Political Cleavages in Poland Interpreted in their Historical and International Context," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 851-873.
    2. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Max H. Farrell, 2018. "On the Effect of Bias Estimation on Coverage Accuracy in Nonparametric Inference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(522), pages 767-779, April.
    3. Caughey, Devin & Sekhon, Jasjeet S., 2011. "Elections and the Regression Discontinuity Design: Lessons from Close U.S. House Races, 1942–2008," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 385-408.
    4. Andrew Gelman & Guido Imbens, 2019. "Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 447-456, July.
    5. Vogl, Tom S., 2014. "Race and the politics of close elections," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 101-113.
    6. Stokes, Susan C., 2005. "Perverse Accountability: A Formal Model of Machine Politics with Evidence from Argentina," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 99(3), pages 315-325, August.
    7. Fiva, Jon H. & Smith, Daniel M., 2018. "Political Dynasties and the Incumbency Advantage in Party-Centered Environments," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(3), pages 706-712, August.
    8. Andrew C. Eggers & Anthony Fowler & Jens Hainmueller & Andrew B. Hall & James M. Snyder, 2015. "On the Validity of the Regression Discontinuity Design for Estimating Electoral Effects: New Evidence from Over 40,000 Close Races," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(1), pages 259-274, January.
    9. Lee, David S., 2008. "Randomized experiments from non-random selection in U.S. House elections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 675-697, February.
    10. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    11. Mariana Lopes da Fonseca, 2017. "Identifying the Source of Incumbency Advantage through a Constitutional Reform," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 61(3), pages 657-670, July.
    12. De Magalhaes, Leandro, 2015. "Incumbency Effects in a Comparative Perspective: Evidence from Brazilian Mayoral Elections," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 113-126, January.
    13. Nichter, Simeon, 2008. "Vote Buying or Turnout Buying? Machine Politics and the Secret Ballot," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(1), pages 19-31, February.
    14. Freier, Ronny, 2015. "The mayor's advantage: Causal evidence on incumbency effects in German mayoral elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 16-30.
    15. Yogesh Uppal, 2009. "The disadvantaged incumbents: estimating incumbency effects in Indian state legislatures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 9-27, January.
    16. F. Daniel Hidalgo & Simeon Nichter, 2016. "Voter Buying: Shaping the Electorate through Clientelism," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 60(2), pages 436-455, April.
    17. David S. Lee, 2001. "The Electoral Advantage to Incumbency and Voters' Valuation of Politicians' Experience: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of Elections to the U.S..," NBER Working Papers 8441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Matias D. Cattaneo & Nicolas Idrobo & Rocio Titiunik, 2019. "A Practical Introduction to Regression Discontinuity Designs: Foundations," Papers 1911.09511, arXiv.org.
    19. Erikson, Robert S. & Rader, Kelly, 2017. "Much Ado About Nothing: RDD and the Incumbency Advantage," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 269-275, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ari Hyytinen & Jaakko Meriläinen & Tuukka Saarimaa & Otto Toivanen & Janne Tukiainen, 2018. "When does regression discontinuity design work? Evidence from random election outcomes," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 1019-1051, July.
    2. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    3. Thushyanthan Baskaran & Sonia Bhalotra & Brian Min & Yogesh Uppal, 2024. "Women legislators and economic performance," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 151-214, June.
    4. Lewis, Blane D. & Nguyen, Hieu T.M. & Hendrawan, Adrianus, 2020. "Political accountability and public service delivery in decentralized Indonesia: Incumbency advantage and the performance of second term mayors," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Leopoldo Fergusson & Pablo Querubin & Nelson A. Ruiz & Juan F. Vargas, 2021. "The Real Winner's Curse," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 52-68, January.
    6. Leandro De Magalhaes & Isabel Spirgel-Sinclair, 2021. "Could Regression Discontinuity estimates of incumbency e ects help monitor parliamentary elections? Evidence from Malawi," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 21/741, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    7. Leandro de Magalhaes & Salomo Hirvonen, 2019. "The Incumbent-Challenger Advantage and the Winner-Runner-up Advantage," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 19/710, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    8. Makkar, Karan, 2023. "Defector Politicians and Economic Growth: Evidence from India," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Beland, Louis-Philippe & Boucher, Vincent, 2015. "Polluting politics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 176-181.
    10. Prakash, Nishith & Rockmore, Marc & Uppal, Yogesh, 2019. "Do criminally accused politicians affect economic outcomes? Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    11. Jin‐young Choi & Myoung‐jae Lee, 2023. "Score manipulation, density continuity and intent‐to‐treat effect for regression discontinuity," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 552-569, October.
    12. Baskaran, Thushyanthan & Bhalotra, Sonia R. & Min, Brian & Uppal, Yogesh, 2018. "Women Legislators and Economic Performance," IZA Discussion Papers 11596, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Sonia Bhalotra & Irma Clots-Figueras & Lakshmi Iyer, "undated". "Pathbreakers? Women’s Electoral Success and Future Political Participation," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-277, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    14. Ercio Andres Munoz, 2021. "Incumbency advantage, money, and campaigns: A note on some suggestive evidence from Chile," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1203-1211.
    15. Adam C. Sales & Ben B. Hansen, 2020. "Limitless Regression Discontinuity," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 45(2), pages 143-174, April.
    16. Kaisa Kotakorpi & Panu Poutvaara & Marko Tervio, 2013. "Returns to office in national and local politics," Discussion Papers 86, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    17. Gregory J. Wawro & Ira Katznelson, 2020. "American political development and new challenges of causal inference," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(3), pages 299-314, December.
    18. Luca Bellodi & Massimo Morelli & Matia Vannoni, 2021. "A Costly Commitment: Populism, Government Performance, and the Quality of Bureaucracy," CESifo Working Paper Series 9470, CESifo.
    19. Lehne, Jonathan & Shapiro, Jacob N. & Vanden Eynde, Oliver, 2018. "Building connections: Political corruption and road construction in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 62-78.
    20. Likai Chen & Georg Keilbar & Liangjun Su & Weining Wang, 2023. "Inference on many jumps in nonparametric panel regression models," Papers 2312.01162, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:72:y:2022:i:c:s0176268021000951. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505544 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.