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Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns?

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Cited by:

  1. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2018. "Dissecting the 2007–2009 Real Estate Market Bust: Systematic Pricing Correction or Just a Housing Fad?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 34-62.
  2. Christos Argyropoulos & Bertrand Candelon & Jean‐Baptiste Hasse & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2024. "Towards a macroprudential regulatory framework for mutual funds?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3063-3082, July.
  3. Hooper, Vincent J. & Ng, Kevin & Reeves, Jonathan J., 2008. "Quarterly beta forecasting: An evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 480-489.
  4. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Hautsch, Nikolaus & Pigorsch, Uta, 2008. "Measuring and modeling risk using high-frequency data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-045, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  5. Morana, Claudio, 2014. "Insights on the global macro-finance interface: Structural sources of risk factor fluctuations and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 64-79.
  6. Lim, G.C., 2005. "Currency risk in excess equity returns: a multi time-varying beta approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 189-207, July.
  7. Hwang, Soosung & Salmon, Mark, 2004. "Market stress and herding," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 585-616, September.
  8. Arısoy, Yakup Eser & Altay-Salih, Aslıhan & Akdeniz, Levent, 2015. "Aggregate volatility expectations and threshold CAPM," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 231-253.
  9. J.L. Ford & Wee Ching Pok & S. Poshakwale, 2012. "The Return Predictability and Market Efficiency of the KLSE CI Stock Index Futures Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 11(1), pages 37-60, April.
  10. Allaudeen Hameed, 1997. "Time-Varying Factors And Cross-Autocorrelations In Short-Horizon Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 435-458, December.
  11. Martin Scheicher, 2000. "Time-varying risk in the German stock market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 70-91.
  12. Ferson, Wayne E. & Sarkissian, Sergei & Simin, Timothy, 2008. "Asset Pricing Models with Conditional Betas and Alphas: The Effects of Data Snooping and Spurious Regression," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 331-353, June.
  13. Garcia, Rene & Bonomo, Marco, 2001. "Tests of conditional asset pricing models in the Brazilian stock market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 71-90, February.
  14. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, August.
  15. Leonid Kogan & Raman Uppal, "undated". "Risk Aversion and Optimal Portfolio Policies in Partial and General Equilibrium Economies," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 13-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  16. Jonas Gusset & Heinz Zimmermann, 2014. "Why not use SDF rather than beta models in performance measurement?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 28(4), pages 307-336, November.
  17. Chadwick, Meltem, 2010. "Performance of Bayesian Latent Factor Models in Measuring Pricing Errors," MPRA Paper 79060, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Fletcher, Jonathan, 2001. "An examination of predictable risk and return in UK stock returns," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 527-546.
  19. Shuxing Yin & Khelifa Mazouz & Abdelhafid Benamraoui & Brahim Saadouni, 2018. "Stock price reaction to profit warnings: the role of time-varying betas," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 67-93, January.
  20. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2003. "Are Fama-French and momentum factors really priced?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 359-384, December.
  21. Harry Mamaysky & Matthew Spiegel & Hong Zhang, 2008. "Estimating the Dynamics of Mutual Fund Alphas and Betas," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 233-264, January.
  22. Simin, Timothy, 2008. "The Poor Predictive Performance of Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 355-380, June.
  23. Ouysse, Rachida & Kohn, Robert, 2010. "Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in the arbitrage pricing theory model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 3249-3268, December.
  24. Andrew Ang & Jun Liu, 2003. "How to Discount Cashflows with Time-Varying Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 10042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. "The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
  26. John H. Boyd & Jian Hu & Ravi Jagannathan, 2005. "The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 649-672, April.
  27. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Gregory Vainberg, 2007. "Forward-Looking Betas," CREATES Research Papers 2007-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  28. Chunsheng Zhou, "undated". "Stock Market Fluctuations and the Term Structure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Dec 2019.
  29. Chen, Kim Heng & Jandhyala, Venkata K. & Fotopoulos, Stergios B., 2005. "Nonlinear Properties of Multifactor Financial Models," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 1(2), pages 1-27.
  30. Garcia, Rene & Ghysels, Eric, 1998. "Structural change and asset pricing in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 455-473, June.
  31. Majumder, Debasish, 2012. "When the market becomes inefficient: Comparing BRIC markets with markets in the USA," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 84-92.
  32. Christopherson, Jon A & Ferson, Wayne E & Glassman, Debra A, 1998. "Conditioning Manager Alphas on Economic Information: Another Look at the Persistence of Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 111-142.
  33. Claudio Morana, 2009. "Realized betas and the cross-section of expected returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(17), pages 1371-1381.
  34. Eckbo, B. Espen & Norli, Oyvind, 2005. "Liquidity risk, leverage and long-run IPO returns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 1-35, March.
  35. Florinda Silva & Maria do Céu Cortez & Manuel Rocha Armada, 2003. "Conditioning Information and European Bond Fund Performance," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(2), pages 201-230, June.
  36. George A. Christodoulakis, 2008. "Asymmetric rotation of risk factors in a global portfolio," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 9(4), pages 391-403, August.
  37. Lieven Baele & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2005. "Structural versus Temporary Drivers of Country and Industry Risk," International Finance 0511005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  38. Sean Campbell & Canlin Li, 2003. "Per Capita Consumption, Luxury Consumption and the Presidential Puzzle: A Partial Resolution," Working Papers 2003-18, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  39. Benjamin Mudiangombe Mudiangombe & John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba, 2022. "Dynamic Asymmetric Effect of Currency Risk Pricing of Exchange Rate on Equity Markets: A Regime-Switching Based C-Vine Copulas Method," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-30, August.
  40. Reschreiter, Andreas, 2004. "Conditional funding costs of inflation-indexed and conventional government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1299-1318, June.
  41. Olivier De Jonghe, 2008. "The impact of revenue diversity on banking system stability," EIEF Working Papers Series 0815, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Jul 2008.
  42. Eckbo, B. Espen & Masulis, Ronald W. & Norli, Oyvind, 2000. "Seasoned public offerings: resolution of the 'new issues puzzle'," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 251-291, May.
  43. Junttila, Juha & Kinnunen, Heli, 2004. "The performance of economic tracking portfolios in an IT-intensive stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 601-623, September.
  44. Iqbal, Javed & Brooks, Robert & Galagedera, Don U.A., 2010. "Testing conditional asset pricing models: An emerging market perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 897-918, September.
  45. Pawel Bilinski & Danielle Lyssimachou, 2014. "Risk Interpretation of the CAPM's Beta: Evidence from a New Research Method," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 50(2), pages 203-226, June.
  46. Bayless, M. & Jay, N., 2008. "A multiperiod evaluation of returns following seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 291-311.
  47. Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Andrea Donato Tortora, 2011. "Myths and Facts about the Alleged Over-Pricing of U.S. Real Estate. Evidence from Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Models of REIT Returns," Working Papers 416, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  48. Nick Durack & Robert B. Durand & Ross A. Maller, 2004. "A best choice among asset pricing models? The Conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model in Australia," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 44(2), pages 139-162, July.
  49. Javid, Attiya Yasmin, 2008. "Time Varying Risk Return Relationship: Evidence from Listed Pakistani Firms," MPRA Paper 37561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  50. Frans de Roon & Marta Szymanowska, 2012. "Asset Pricing Restrictions on Predictability: Frictions Matter," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(10), pages 1916-1932, October.
  51. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2000. "Time-varying market, interest rate, and exchange rate risk premia in the US commercial bank stock returns," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 397-420, December.
  52. Shu-Yi Liao & Sheng-Tung Chen & Mao-Lung Huang, 2016. "Will the oil price change damage the stock market in a bull market? A re-examination of their conditional relationships," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 1135-1169, May.
  53. Yan Li & Liangjun Su & Yuewu Xu, 2015. "A Combined Approach to the Inference of Conditional Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 203-220, April.
  54. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2005. "Portfolio performance measurement using APM-free kernel models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 623-659, March.
  55. Ravi Jagannathan & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1995. "The CAPM debate," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 19(Fall), pages 2-17.
  56. Harry Mamaysky & Matthew Spiegel & Hong Zhang, 2007. "Improved Forecasting of Mutual Fund Alphas and Betas," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(3), pages 359-400.
  57. Mika Vaihekoski, 1998. "Short-term returns and the predictability of Finnish stock returns," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 19-36, Spring.
  58. Doron Avramov, "undated". "Stock-Return Predictability and Model Uncertainty," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 12-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  59. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2008. "The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1577-1605, July.
  60. Chen, Jian & Jiang, Fuwei & Li, Hongyi & Xu, Weidong, 2016. "Chinese stock market volatility and the role of U.S. economic variables," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 70-83.
  61. Wolfgang Bessler & Dominik Wolff, 2024. "Portfolio Optimization with Sector Return Prediction Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-34, June.
  62. Chunsheng Zhou, "undated". "Forecasting Long- and Short-Horizon Stock Returns in a Unified Framework," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Dec 2019.
  63. Ghysels, E., 1995. "On Stable Factor Structurs in the Pricing of Risk," Cahiers de recherche 9525, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  64. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
  65. René Garcia & Eric Renault, 1999. "Latent Variable Models for Stochastic Discount Factors," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-47, CIRANO.
  66. Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2004. "The Performance of International Equity Portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 817, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  67. Philip Shively, 2004. "Time-varying risk components in the single-factor market model: an exact most powerful invariant test," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(13), pages 945-952.
  68. Matthew Spiegel & Harry Mamaysky & Hong Zhang, 2005. "Estimating the Dynamics of Mutual Fund Alphas and Betas," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm353, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2005.
  69. Mariangela Bonasia & Oreste Napolitano, 2007. "Do Fundamentals and Credibility Matter in a Funded Pension System ?A Markov Switching Analysis for Australia and Iceland," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 50(2), pages 221-248.
  70. Lo, Andrew W. & Mackinlay, A. Craig, 1997. "Maximizing Predictability In The Stock And Bond Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 102-134, January.
  71. Claudio Morana, 2007. "Estimating, Filtering and Forecasting Realized Betas," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 6-2007, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  72. Karl Ludwig Keiber & Helene Samyschew, 2015. "The role of sentiment in global risk premia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(20), pages 2073-2091, April.
  73. M. Reza Bradrania & Maurice Peat & Stephen Satchell, 2022. "Liquidity Costs, Idiosyncratic Volatility and Expected Stock Returns," Papers 2211.04695, arXiv.org.
  74. Evangelos Karanikas & George Leledakis & Elias Tzavalis, 2006. "Structural Changes in Expected Stock Returns Relationships: Evidence from ASE," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1610-1628, November.
  75. Cesare Robotti, 2003. "Dynamic strategies, asset pricing models, and the out-of-sample performance of the tangency portfolio," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  76. Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Andrea Tortora, 2014. "Myths and Facts about the Alleged Over-Pricing of U.S. Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 477-523, November.
  77. Debasish Majumder, 2011. "Asset Pricing when Market Sentiments Regulate Asset-Returns: Evidences from Emerging Markets," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 89-117.
  78. Robert J. Bianchi & Michael E. Drew & Timothy Whittaker, 2016. "The Predictive Performance of Asset Pricing Models: Evidence from the Australian Securities Exchange," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(04), pages 1-18, December.
  79. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2018. "Dissecting the 2007–2009 Real Estate Market Bust: Systematic Pricing Correction or Just a Housing Fad?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 16(1), pages 34-62.
  80. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2008. "Asymmetric currency exposure and currency risk pricing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 647-663, September.
  81. Asparouhova, Elena & Bessembinder, Hendrik & Kalcheva, Ivalina, 2010. "Liquidity biases in asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 215-237, May.
  82. Matthew Spiegel & Harry Mamaysky & Hong Zhang, 2005. "Improved Forecasting of Mutual Fund Alphas and Betas," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2361, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2006.
  83. Niccolò Comerio & Fausto Pacicco & Massimiliano Serati, 2024. "“Fly down”: the impact of new accounting standards on the airline industry risk assessment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(5), pages 2109-2133, November.
  84. Joelle Miffre, 2008. "Conditional Risk Premia in International Government Bond Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(3-4), pages 185-204, September.
  85. Fletcher, Jonathan & Hillier, Joe, 2002. "On the usefulness of linear factor models in predicting expected returns in mean-variance analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 449-466.
  86. Erdinc Altay, 2003. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Asset Returns: A Comparative Analysis of the German and the Turkish Stock Markets in an APT Framework," Finance 0307006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  87. Huang, Ho-Chuan (River), 2003. "Tests of regime-switching CAPM under price limits," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 305-326.
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  90. Caporale, Tony, 2012. "Time varying CAPM betas and banking sector risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 293-295.
  91. Mateus, Tiago, 2004. "The risk and predictability of equity returns of the EU accession countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 241-266, June.
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  95. Reza Bradrania, M. & Peat, Maurice & Satchell, Stephen, 2015. "Liquidity costs, idiosyncratic volatility and expected stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 394-406.
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  98. Yiannis Karavias & Stella Spilioti & Elias Tzavalis, 2021. "Investor sentiment effects on share price deviations from their intrinsic values based on accounting fundamentals," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1593-1621, May.
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