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Sovereign Spread in Emerging Markets: A Principal Component Analysis

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  • Mónica Fuentes
  • Sergio Godoy

Abstract

We investigates the behavior of daily bond stripped spreads on sovereign bonds for 18 emerging market economies located in Asia, East Europe and Latin America from September 1997 to November 2002. In the emerging market world, financial crises are seen more often than not. An obvious question is whether these events, each associated with a particular country, spread to other countries, regardless of economic fundamentals at that specific point in time. That is, if the ‘simultaneous’ movements that we observe in spreads across emerging market economies are linked to economic fundamentals. We find that the correlation across countries is regionally dominated. Spreads from sovereigns with high savings rates, low indebtedness and good credit ratings are less likely to co-move with spreads where financial crises are being originated.

Suggested Citation

  • Mónica Fuentes & Sergio Godoy, 2005. "Sovereign Spread in Emerging Markets: A Principal Component Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 333, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:333
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    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_333.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Álvaro García & Valentina Paredes, 2006. "Sovereign Spreads and Contagion Effect," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 385, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Philipp Maier & Garima Vasishtha, 2008. "Good Policies or Good Fortune: What Drives the Compression in Emerging Market Spreads?," Staff Working Papers 08-25, Bank of Canada.
    3. Luis Ángel Meneses Cerón & Carlos Alirio Pismag Ramírez & Jhon Hayder Bolaños Garcés, 2022. "Diseno de un modelo de alerta temprana para inferir la ocurrencia de crisis financieras con aplicación a mercados emergentes. El caso del mercado bursátil Colombiano," Revista Estrategia Organizacional, Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia, vol. 11(1), pages 7-29, March.

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