IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/rpbfmp/v19y2016i04ns0219091516500235.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Predictive Performance of Asset Pricing Models: Evidence from the Australian Securities Exchange

Author

Listed:
  • Robert J. Bianchi

    (Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia)

  • Michael E. Drew

    (Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia)

  • Timothy Whittaker

    (EDHEC Infrastructure Institute, Singapore)

Abstract

This paper considers the accuracy (or otherwise) of cost of equity estimates provided by a range of Australian asset pricing models on industry returns. The results suggest that a simple, constant-benchmark approach (fixed excess return of five percent per annum) provides the best forecast for the cost of equity capital for the various industry segments of the Australian Securities Exchange examined across the observation window. Our results from Australia corroborate U.S. findings regarding the disconnect between asset pricing models that provide the best ex-post explanation of asset returns and models that produce superior ex-ante predictions of the cost of capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Bianchi & Michael E. Drew & Timothy Whittaker, 2016. "The Predictive Performance of Asset Pricing Models: Evidence from the Australian Securities Exchange," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(04), pages 1-18, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:rpbfmp:v:19:y:2016:i:04:n:s0219091516500235
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219091516500235
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219091516500235
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0219091516500235?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    2. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
    3. Stan Hurn & Vlad Pavlov, 2003. "Momentum in Australian Stock Returns," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 28(2), pages 141-155, September.
    4. Nick Durack & Robert B. Durand & Ross A. Maller, 2004. "A best choice among asset pricing models? The Conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model in Australia," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 44(2), pages 139-162, July.
    5. Alan Gregory & Maria Michou, 2009. "Industry Cost of Equity Capital: UK Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5-6), pages 679-704.
    6. Nicolaas Groenewald & Patricia Fraser, 2000. "Forecasting Beta: How Well Does the 'Five-Year Rule of Thumb' Do?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(7&8), pages 953-982.
    7. Ferson, Wayne E & Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1987. "Tests of Asset Pricing with Time-Varying Expected Risk Premiums and Market Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 201-220, June.
    8. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
    9. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    10. Edward McLaney & John Pointon & Melanie Thomas & Jon Tucker, 2004. "Practitioners' perspectives on the UK cost of capital," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 123-138.
    11. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    12. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. "Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
    13. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    14. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    15. Nusret Cakici & Kudret Topyan & Chia-Jane Wang, 2014. "Cross-Sectional Return Predictability in Taiwan Stock Exchange: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(02), pages 1-44.
    16. Ferson, Wayne E & Schadt, Rudi W, 1996. "Measuring Fund Strategy and Performance in Changing Economic Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 425-461, June.
    17. Linda H. Chen, 2013. "Income Smoothing, Information Uncertainty, Stock Returns, and Cost of Equity," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(03), pages 1-34.
    18. Tim Brailsford & John C. Handley & Krishnan Maheswaran, 2008. "Re‐examination of the historical equity risk premium in Australia," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 48(1), pages 73-97, March.
    19. Simin, Timothy, 2008. "The Poor Predictive Performance of Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 355-380, June.
    20. Ferson, Wayne E & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1995. "Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 309-349, July.
    21. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    22. Jacob Poke & Graeme Wells, 2009. "The Term Spread and GDP Growth in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(269), pages 121-131, June.
    23. Robert Faff, 2001. "An Examination of the Fama and French Three-Factor Model Using Commercially Available Factors," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 26(1), pages 1-17, June.
    24. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    25. Kevin Q. Wang, 2003. "Asset Pricing with Conditioning Information: A New Test," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 161-196, February.
    26. Giang Truong & Graham Partington & Maurice Peat, 2008. "Cost-of-Capital Estimation and Capital-Budgeting Practice in Australia," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 33(1), pages 95-121, June.
    27. Vanitha Ragunathan & Robert Faff & Robert Brooks, 2000. "Australian industry beta risk, the choice of market index and business cycles," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 49-58.
    28. Robert Faff, 2004. "A simple test of the Fama and French model using daily data: Australian evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 83-92.
    29. Ozgur S. Ince & R. Burt Porter, 2006. "Individual Equity Return Data From Thomson Datastream: Handle With Care!," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 463-479, December.
    30. Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Riza Emekter & Peter Went, 2006. "Fundamental Value Hypothesis and Return Behavior: Evidence from Emerging Equity Markets," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 97-127.
    31. Alan Gregory & Maria Michou, 2009. "Industry Cost of Equity Capital: UK Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5‐6), pages 679-704, June.
    32. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-566.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Gramespacher & Armin Bänziger, 2019. "The Bias in Two-Pass Regression Tests of Asset-Pricing Models in Presence of Idiosyncratic Errors with Cross-Sectional Dependence," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(02), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Shafiqur Rahman & Matthew J. Schneider, 2019. "Tests of Alternative Asset Pricing Models Using Individual Security Returns and a New Multivariate F-Test," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(01), pages 1-34, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefano Gubellini, 2014. "Conditioning information and cross-sectional anomalies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 529-569, October.
    2. Ahmed, Shamim & Tsvetanov, Daniel, 2016. "The predictive performance of commodity futures risk factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 20-36.
    3. Fletcher, Jonathan & Kihanda, Joseph, 2005. "An examination of alternative CAPM-based models in UK stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2995-3014, December.
    4. Fletcher, Jonathan & Hillier, Joe, 2002. "On the usefulness of linear factor models in predicting expected returns in mean-variance analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 449-466.
    5. repec:wyi:journl:002108 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    7. Simin, Timothy, 2008. "The Poor Predictive Performance of Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 355-380, June.
    8. Andrew Ang & Jun Liu, 2003. "How to Discount Cashflows with Time-Varying Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 10042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Massa, Massimo & O'Donovan, James & Zhang, Hong, 2022. "International asset pricing with strategic business groups1," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 339-361.
    10. Bessler, Wolfgang & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2007. "Conditional Performance Evaluation for German Mutual Equity Funds," Working papers 2007/22, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    11. Long, Huaigang & Chiah, Mardy & Zaremba, Adam & Umar, Zaghum, 2024. "Changes in shares outstanding and country stock returns around the world," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    12. Chiang, I-Hsuan Ethan & Liao, Yin & Zhou, Qing, 2021. "Modeling the cross-section of stock returns using sensible models in a model pool," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 56-73.
    13. Boguth, Oliver & Carlson, Murray & Fisher, Adlai & Simutin, Mikhail, 2011. "Conditional risk and performance evaluation: Volatility timing, overconditioning, and new estimates of momentum alphas," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 363-389.
    14. Zongwu Cai & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Some Recent Developments in Nonparametric Finance," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    15. Christopherson, Jon A & Ferson, Wayne E & Glassman, Debra A, 1998. "Conditioning Manager Alphas on Economic Information: Another Look at the Persistence of Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 111-142.
    16. Bai, Jennie & Bali, Turan G. & Wen, Quan, 2021. "Is there a risk-return tradeoff in the corporate bond market? Time-series and cross-sectional evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1017-1037.
    17. Fabian Hollstein & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2023. "Managing the Market Portfolio," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3675-3696, June.
    18. Haixiang Yao & Shenghao Xia & Hao Liu, 2024. "Return predictability via an long short‐term memory‐based cross‐section factor model: Evidence from Chinese stock market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1770-1794, September.
    19. Arısoy, Yakup Eser & Altay-Salih, Aslıhan & Akdeniz, Levent, 2015. "Aggregate volatility expectations and threshold CAPM," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 231-253.
    20. Ang, Andrew & Kristensen, Dennis, 2012. "Testing conditional factor models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 132-156.
    21. Ahmed, Shamim & Liu, Xiaoquan & Valente, Giorgio, 2016. "Can currency-based risk factors help forecast exchange rates?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 75-97.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:rpbfmp:v:19:y:2016:i:04:n:s0219091516500235. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/rpbfmp/rpbfmp.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.