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Has ECB communication been helpful in predicting interest rate decisions? An evaluation of the early years of the Economic and Monetary Union

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2009. "The communication policy of the European Central Bank: An overview of the first decade," DNB Working Papers 212, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  2. Jonne Lehtimäki & Marianne Palmu, 2022. "Who Should You Listen to in a Crisis? Differences in Communication of Central Bank Policymakers," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(3), pages 33-57.
  3. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2018. "The Effect of ECB Forward Guidance on the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 193-222, December.
  4. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2015. "Central bank communication in the financial crisis: Evidence from a survey of financial market participants," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 166-181.
  5. Schmidt, Sandra & Nautz, Dieter, 2010. "Why do financial market experts misperceive future monetary policy decisions?," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-045, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/64veevce0i99oav223j3pkv1hf is not listed on IDEAS
  7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/64veevce0i99oav223j3pkv1hf is not listed on IDEAS
  8. repec:fce:doctra:13-04 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Paul Hubert, 2015. "ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 574-587, November.
  10. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2018. "Central Banks' Predictability: An Assessment by Financial Market Participants," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 163-185, September.
  11. Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2021. "The signaling effects of central bank tone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  12. Pongsak Luangaram & Yuthana Sethapramote, 2016. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Effectiveness: Evidence from Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 20, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
  13. Alexander Jung, 2018. "Have money and credit data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(1), pages 39-67, February.
  14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7v8fvu0bf08jcoi4epn8cutjm8 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Bennani, Hamza & Fanta, Nicolas & Gertler, Pavel & Horvath, Roman, 2020. "Does central bank communication signal future monetary policy in a (post)-crisis era? The case of the ECB," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
  16. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "Central Bank Sentiment and Policy Expectations," Working Papers hal-03459227, HAL.
  17. Paul Hubert, 2015. "ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 574-587, November.
  18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3mgbd73vkp9f9oje7utooe7vpg is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "The effect of ECB forward guidance on policy expectations," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-30, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  20. Alexander Jung & Patrick Kuehl, 2021. "Can central bank communication help to stabilise inflation expectations?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 298-321, July.
  21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7v8fvu0bf08jcoi4epn8cutjm8 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2g6qj1trtu8q2r79ee4jp49krd is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Bulíř Aleš & Čihák Martin & Šmídkova Kateřina Š, 2013. "Writing Clearly: The ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 50-72, February.
  24. Fender, Ingo & Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2012. "Daily pricing of emerging market sovereign CDS before and during the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2786-2794.
  25. Menno Middeldorp, 2011. "Central bank transparency, the accuracy of professional forecasts, and interest rate volatility," Staff Reports 496, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  26. Aleksandra Halka, 2015. "Lessons from the crisis.Did central banks do their homework?," NBP Working Papers 224, Narodowy Bank Polski.
  27. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4evh7bju58uep3gd1frcn5nr9 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2019. "Central bank tone and the dispersion of views within monetary policy committees," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403256, HAL.
  29. Picault, Matthieu & Renault, Thomas, 2017. "Words are not all created equal: A new measure of ECB communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 136-156.
  30. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2011. "Canadian Interest Rate Setting: The Information Content of Canadian and U.S. Central Bank Communication," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(1), pages 131-148, July.
  31. Carlo Rosa, 2009. "Forecasting the Direction of Policy Rate Changes: The Importance of ECB Words," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 38(1‐2), pages 39-66, February.
  32. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/61ma1iq1299m89uud61kkjcjot is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have monetary data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?," Working Paper Series 1926, European Central Bank.
  34. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/52p48pif5099i9i8uilpqhgnt4 is not listed on IDEAS
  35. Paweł Baranowski & Hamza Bennani & Wirginia Doryń, 2020. "Do ECB introductory statements help to predict monetary policy: evidence from tone analysis," NBP Working Papers 323, Narodowy Bank Polski.
  36. Sandra Schmidt & Dieter Nautz, 2012. "Central Bank Communication and the Perception of Monetary Policy by Financial Market Experts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 323-340, March.
  37. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/61ma1iq1299m89uud61kkjcjot is not listed on IDEAS
  38. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/52p48pif5099i9i8uilpqhgnt4 is not listed on IDEAS
  39. Hamza Bennani & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "The (home) bias of European central bankers: new evidence based on speeches," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(11), pages 1114-1131, March.
  40. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7mota32nad8aopst8f7d5aebpo is not listed on IDEAS
  41. Aleksandra Halka, 2016. "How the central bank’s reaction function in small open economies evolved during the crisis," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(4), pages 301-318.
  42. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2t6uivimtr9438i2qqu6kgfded is not listed on IDEAS
  43. Mikael Apel & Marianna Blix Grimaldi & Isaiah Hull, 2022. "How Much Information Do Monetary Policy Committees Disclose? Evidence from the FOMC's Minutes and Transcripts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1459-1490, August.
  44. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4evh7bju58uep3gd1frcn5nr9 is not listed on IDEAS
  45. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert, 2018. "Central bank communication during normal and crisis time," Working Papers hal-03404315, HAL.
  46. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7mota32nad8aopst8f7d5aebpo is not listed on IDEAS
  47. Menno Middeldorp, 2011. "FOMC communication policy and the accuracy of Fed Funds futures," Staff Reports 491, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  48. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier & Matthias Uhl, 2014. "Topics in Fiscal Policy: Evidence from a Representative Survey of the German Population," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201412, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  49. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2010. "Do Federal Reserve communications help predict federal funds target rate decisions?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1014-1024, December.
  50. Ales Bulir & Martin Cihak & David-Jan Jansen, 2018. "Does the Clarity of Monetary Policy Reports Reduce Volatility in Financial Markets?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(1), pages 2-17, February.
  51. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2t6uivimtr9438i2qqu6kgfded is not listed on IDEAS
  52. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3mgbd73vkp9f9oje7utooe7vpg is not listed on IDEAS
  53. Paul Hubert, 2014. "Disentangling qualitative and quantitative central bank influence," Working Papers hal-01098464, HAL.
  54. Pongsak Luangaram & Yuthana Sethapramote, 2016. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Effectiveness: Evidence from Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 20., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Feb 2016.
  55. Guillermo Peña, 2020. "Monetary Policy after the Great Moderation," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(3), pages 5-26.
  56. Domenico Lombardi & Pierre L. Siklos & Samantha St. Amand, 2019. "Government Bond Yields At The Effective Lower Bound: International Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 102-120, January.
  57. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "Central Bank Sentiment and Policy Expectations," Working Papers hal-03471878, HAL.
  58. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2g6qj1trtu8q2r79ee4jp49krd is not listed on IDEAS
  59. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2015. "Self-monitoring or reliance on media reporting: How do financial market participants process central bank news?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 27-37.
  60. Luis Alberto Delgado-de-la-Garza & Gonzalo Adolfo Garza-Rodríguez & Daniel Alejandro Jacques-Osuna & Alejandro Múgica-Lara & Carlos Alberto Carrasco, 2021. "Does the use of a big data variable improve monetary policy estimates? Evidence from Mexico," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 383-393.
  61. Jonne O. Lehtimäki & Marianne Palmu, 2019. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Predictability under Uncertain Economic Conditions," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 8(2), pages 5-32.
  62. Jef Boeckx, 2011. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions : A discrete choice approach," Working Paper Research 210, National Bank of Belgium.
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