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The Effect of ECB Forward Guidance on the Term Structure of Interest Rates

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  • Paul Hubert

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Fabien Labondance

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

This paper investigates the instantaneous and dynamic effects of ECB forward guidance announcements on the term structure of interest rates. We estimate the static and dynamic impacts of forward guidance on overnight indexed swaps (OIS) rates using a high-frequency methodology and an ARCH model, complemented with local projections. We find that ECB forward guidance announcements have lowered the term structure of private short-term interest rates at most maturities, even after controlling for the macroeconomic information published by the ECB. The effect is stronger on longer maturities and persistent.

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  • Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2018. "The Effect of ECB Forward Guidance on the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Post-Print hal-03457846, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03457846
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03457846
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    Cited by:

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    3. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2021. "Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 816-832.
    4. Michael Ehrmann & Sarah Holton & Danielle Kedan & Gillian Phelan, 2024. "Monetary Policy Communication: Perspectives from Former Policymakers at the ECB," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 837-864, June.
    5. Christophe Blot & Fabien Labondance, 2021. "Beyond the Interest Rate Pass-through: Monetary Policy and Banks Interest Rates during the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers hal-04221606, HAL.
    6. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    7. Galati, Gabriele & Moessner, Richhild, 2021. "Effects of Fed policy rate forecasts on real yields and inflation expectations at the zero lower bound," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    8. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Thomas B. King & Anna Orlik & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2020. "Issues Regarding the Use of the Policy Rate Tool," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Celso Brunetti & Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon, 2023. "Reasons Behind Words: OPEC Narratives and the Oil Market," Working Papers 2023-19, CEPII research center.
    10. Bottero, Margherita & Minoiu, Camelia & Peydró, José-Luis & Polo, Andrea & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Sette, Enrico, 2022. "Expansionary yet different: Credit supply and real effects of negative interest rate policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 754-778.
    11. Jung, Alexander & Uhlig, Harald, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and the health of banks," Working Paper Series 2303, European Central Bank.
    12. Goodhead, Robert, 2018. "The Effect of ECB Policy Announcements on Sovereign Yields: A Return to Normal Transmission?," Economic Letters 4/EL/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    13. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.
    14. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Victor Maia, 2023. "The reaction of disagreements in inflation expectations to fiscal sentiment obtained from information in official communiqués," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 828-859, October.
    15. Margherita Bottero & Ms. Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró & Andrea Polo & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Enrico Sette, 2019. "Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence from Credit Register Data," IMF Working Papers 2019/044, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Jiang, Meihua & Huang, Yuzhe, 2023. "Is forward guidance an effective policy: A time-varying analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    17. Pažický Martin, 2021. "Oil price shock in the US and the euro area – evidence from the shadow rate and the term premium," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 21(3), pages 309-346, September.
    18. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Nicolay, Rodolfo & Pereira, Flavio, 2022. "Does fiscal sentiment matter for sovereign risk?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 18-30.
    19. Marc de la Barrera & Juraj Falath & Dorian Henricot & Jean-Alexandre Vaglio, 2017. "The Impact of Forward Guidance on Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the ECB," Working Papers 1010, Barcelona School of Economics.
    20. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    21. Peter Tillmann, 2020. "Financial Markets and Dissent in the ECB’s Governing Council," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202048, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    22. Christopher S. Sutherland, 2023. "Forward guidance and expectation formation: A narrative approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 222-241, March.
    23. Ralf Fendel & Jan Heins & Oliver Mohr, 2020. "The Effect of the ECB’s Forward Guidance on Interest Rate Forecasts," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(8), pages 1-52, August.
    24. Parra-Polanía, Julián & Sánchez-Jabba, Andrés & Sarmiento, Miguel, 2024. "Are FX communications effective? Evidence from emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    25. Jung, Alexander, 2023. "Are monetary policy shocks causal to bank health? Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European central bank; Guidance; Interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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