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Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?

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  1. Inflation expectations and rational behavior
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-11-30 22:00:00

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2022. "Households’ inflation perceptions and expectations: survey evidence from New Zealand," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 185-217, February.
  2. Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Kaufmann, Katja Maria & Rauh, Christopher, 2022. "Beliefs about Maternal Labor Supply," IZA Discussion Papers 15788, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  3. Oya Celasun & Mr. Lev Ratnovski & Miss Roxana Mihet, 2012. "Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2012/089, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Carstensen, Kai & Bachmann, Rüdiger & Schneider, Martin & Lautenbacher, Stefan, 2018. "Uncertainty is Change," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181572, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  5. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2024. "How to limit the spillover from an inflation surge to inflation expectations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
  6. Kuchler, Theresa & Piazzesi, Monika & Ströbel, Johannes, 2022. "Housing Market Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 17158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Francesco D'Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2016. "Unconventional Fiscal Policy, Inflation Expectations, and Consumption Expenditure," CESifo Working Paper Series 5793, CESifo.
  8. Hoong, Ruru, 2021. "Self control and smartphone use: An experimental study of soft commitment devices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  9. Mary A. Burke & Michael Manz, 2014. "Economic Literacy and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1421-1456, October.
  10. Andreas Fuster & Ricardo Perez-Truglia & Mirko Wiederholt & Basit Zafar, 2022. "Expectations with Endogenous Information Acquisition: An Experimental Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1059-1078, December.
  11. Paul Hubert, 2015. "The Influence and Policy Signalling Role of FOMC Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(5), pages 655-680, October.
  12. Jonas Dovern & Alexander Glas & Geoff Kenny, 2023. "Testing for Differences in Survey-Based Density Expectations: A Compositional Data Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 10256, CESifo.
  13. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2020. "The Hidden Heterogeneity of Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations: The Role of Preferences," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-666, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, revised Feb 2023.
  14. Dräger, L. & Lamla, M.J. & Pfajfar, D., 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," Other publications TiSEM 4d696071-8776-4191-a84f-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  15. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Tambalotti, Andrea & Topa, Giorgio, 2022. "Subjective intertemporal substitution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 118-133.
  16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2t6uivimtr9438i2qqu6kgfded is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2023. "IQ, Expectations, and Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2292-2325.
  18. Fiori, Giuseppe & Scoccianti, Filippo, 2023. "The economic effects of firm-level uncertainty: Evidence using subjective expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 92-105.
  19. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  20. Carola Binder, 2021. "Presidential antagonism and central bank credibility," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 244-263, July.
  21. Diana Gabrielyan & Lenno Uusküla, 2022. "Inflation Expectations And Consumption With Machine Learning," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 142, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
  22. Misha Galashin & Martin Kanz & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2020. "Macroeconomic Expectations and Credit Card Spending," NBER Working Papers 28281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Dmitri V. Vinogradov & Michael J. Lamla & Yousef Makhlouf, 2024. "Survey-based expectations and uncertainty attitudes," Working Papers 2024_02, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  24. Stefan Nagel & Zhen Yan, 2022. "Inflation Hedging on Main Street? Evidence from Retail TIPS Fund Flows," CESifo Working Paper Series 10118, CESifo.
  25. Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh & Luba Petersen, 2021. "Coordinating expectations through central bank projections," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(3), pages 883-918, September.
  26. Ellison, Martin & Macaulay, Alistair, 2021. "A rational inattention unemployment trap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  27. Suarez-Fernandez, Sara & Perez-Villadoniga, Maria J. & Prieto-Rodriguez, Juan, 2022. "Price salience in opinion polls and observed behavior: The case of Spanish cinema," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  28. Mirko Wiederholt, 2014. "Empirical Properties of Inflation Expectations and the Zero Lower Bound," 2014 Meeting Papers 1407, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  29. Philip Schnorpfeil & Michael Weber & Andreas Hackethal, 2024. "Inflation and Trading," NBER Working Papers 32470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Andrade, Philippe & Gautier, Erwan & Mengus, Eric, 2023. "What matters in households’ inflation expectations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 50-68.
  31. Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla, 2024. "Consumers' macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 427-451, April.
  32. Armantier, Olivier & Sbordone, Argia & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Williams, John C., 2022. "A new approach to assess inflation expectations anchoring using strategic surveys," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 82-101.
  33. Alistair Macaulay & James Moberly, 2022. "Heterogeneity in imperfect inflation expectations:theory and evidence from a novel survey," Economics Series Working Papers 970, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  34. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Ștefan Virgil IACOB, 2022. "Romania's economy on the threshold of recession," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(630), S), pages 27-38, Spring.
  35. Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2021. "Consumer inflation expectations, income changes and economic downturns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 784-807, September.
  36. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2014. "Inflation Expectations, Learning and Supermarket Prices," NBER Working Papers 20576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Reid, Monique & Siklos, Pierre & Plessis, Stan Du, 2021. "What drives household inflation expectations in South Africa? Demographics and anchoring under inflation targeting," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
  38. Weber, Michael & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2021. "Fiscal Policy And Households’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence From A Randomized Control Trial," CEPR Discussion Papers 15821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  39. Armantier, Olivier & Filippin, Antonio & Neubauer, Michael & Nunziata, Luca, 2022. "The expected price of keeping up with the Joneses," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1203-1220.
  40. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2016. "Are survey expectations theory-consistent? The role of central bank communication and news," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 84-111.
  41. Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations and Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 867-896, August.
  42. Han, Xun & Ma, Sichao & Peng, Yuchao & Xie, Xinyan, 2022. "Central bank communication, corporate maturity mismatch and innovation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  43. Martin Geiger & Johann Scharler, 2021. "How Do People Interpret Macroeconomic Shocks? Evidence from U.S. Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 813-843, June.
  44. Olivier Armantier & Scott Nelson & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2016. "The Price Is Right: Updating Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 503-523, July.
  45. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2021. "Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents," Working Papers halshs-03351632, HAL.
  46. Vasilii Chsherbakov & Ilia Karpov, 2024. "Regional inflation analysis using social network data," Papers 2403.00774, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
  47. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Stefan Virgil IACOB & Cristian Marius RĂDUT & Denis-Arthur STRIJEK, 2022. "Inflation seriously affects the standard of living of the population," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(632), A), pages 223-232, Autumn.
  48. Hoffmann, Mathias & Moench, Emanuel & Pavlova, Lora & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2022. "Would households understand average inflation targeting?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 52-66.
  49. Carvalho, Carlos & Nechio, Fernanda, 2014. "Do people understand monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 108-123.
  50. Dräger, Lena, 2023. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-713, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  51. Agarwal, Sumit & Chua, Yeow Hwee & Song, Changcheng, 2022. "Inflation expectations of households and the upgrading channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 124-138.
  52. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-02894262, HAL.
  53. William Grant, 2022. "TIPS for Teaching: Bridging Macro and Micro Concepts with Inflation-Protected Securities," Journal of Economics Teaching, Journal of Economics Teaching, vol. 7(2), pages 103-120, May.
  54. de Bresser, Jochem & van Soest, Arthur, 2017. "The Predictive Power of Subjective Probability Questions," Discussion Paper 2017-046, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  55. Elmar Mertens, 2016. "Measuring the Level and Uncertainty of Trend Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 950-967, December.
  56. Alberto Prati, 2024. "The Well‐Being Cost of Inflation Inequalities," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 70(1), pages 213-238, March.
  57. Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Pomerantz, Rachel & Skandalis, Daphné & Smith, Kyle & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2021. "How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 443-469.
  58. Sonan Memon, 2023. "Expectation Shocks and Business Cycles," PIDE-Working Papers 2023:2, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  59. Giacomo De Giorgi & Luca Gambetti, 2017. "Business Cycle Fluctuations and the Distribution of Consumption," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 19-41, January.
  60. Carola Binder & Wesley Janson & Randal Verbrugge, 2023. "Out of Bounds: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2-3), pages 559-576, March.
  61. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Michael Weber, 2022. "What Do the Data Tell Us About Inflation Expectations?," NBER Working Papers 29825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  62. Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2023. "How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence from the Pandemic Era in Europe," NBER Working Papers 31790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  63. Rodriguez, Harold & Colombo, Jefferson, 2024. "Is bitcoin an inflation hedge?," MPRA Paper 120477, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  64. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2t6uivimtr9438i2qqu6kgfded is not listed on IDEAS
  65. Lena Dräger & Ulrich Fritsche, 2013. "Don't Worry, Be Right! Survey Wording Effects on In flation Perceptions and Expectations," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201308, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
  66. Hayo, Bernd & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2023. "Measuring Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: The Effect of Guided vs Non-Guided Inflation Questions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  67. Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Topa, Giorgio & Downs, Julie S. & Fischhoff, Baruch & Armantier, Olivier, 2012. "The effect of question wording on consumers’ reported inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 749-757.
  68. Madalina-Gabriela Anghel & Maria Mirea & Alexandru Badiu, 2018. "Analysis of the Main Aspects Regarding the Price Indices Applied in the Determination of Inflation," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 8(2), pages 28-36, April.
  69. Paul Hubert, 2014. "Disentangling qualitative and quantitative central bank influence," Working Papers hal-01098464, HAL.
  70. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2017. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, July.
  71. Duca, Ioana A. & Kenny, Geoff & Reuter, Andreas, 2018. "Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound: micro evidence from a large euro area survey," Working Paper Series 2196, European Central Bank.
  72. Sara Suarez-Fernandez & Maria Jose Perez-Villadoniga & Juan Prieto-Rodriguez, 2018. "Are We (Un)Consciously Driven by First Impressions? Price Declarations vs. Observed Cinema Demand when VAT Increases," ACEI Working Paper Series AWP-02-2018, Association for Cultural Economics International, revised Jul 2018.
  73. Maite D. Laméris & Richard Jong-A-Pin & Rasmus Wiese, 2018. "An Experimental Test of the Validity of Survey-Measured Political Ideology," CESifo Working Paper Series 7139, CESifo.
  74. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Ștefan Virgil IACOB, 2021. "The evolution of consumer prices – the main brake on economic growth," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(629), W), pages 179-190, Winter.
  75. Ernesto Reuben & Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2017. "Preferences and Biases in Educational Choices and Labour Market Expectations: Shrinking the Black Box of Gender," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 2153-2186, September.
  76. Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Rauh, Christopher, 2022. "Can perceived returns explain enrollment gaps in postgraduate education?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  77. Pooja Kapoor & Sujata Kar, 2022. "A Critical Evaluation of the Consumer Confidence Survey from India," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 172-198.
  78. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2021. "Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents," Working Papers hal-03468918, HAL.
  79. Claudio Michelacci & Luigi Paciello, 2020. "Aggregate Risk or Aggregate Uncertainty? Evidence from UK Households," EIEF Working Papers Series 2006, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Apr 2020.
  80. Lange, Kai-Robin & Reccius, Matthias & Schmidt, Tobias & Müller, Henrik & Roos, Michael W. M. & Jentsch, Carsten, 2022. "Towards extracting collective economic narratives from texts," Ruhr Economic Papers 963, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  81. Eva Arnold & Lena Dräger & Ulrich Fritsche, 2014. "Evaluating the Link between Consumers' Savings Portfolio Decisions, their Inflation Expectations and Economic News," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201402, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
  82. Binder, Carola Conces, 2022. "Time-of-day and day-of-week variations in Amazon Mechanical Turk survey responses," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  83. Pooja Kapoor & Sujata Kar, 2023. "A review of inflation expectations and perceptions research in the past four decades: a bibliometric analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 279-302, May.
  84. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2016. "Break-Even-Inflation's Decomposition in Mexico," Working Papers 2016-22, Banco de México.
  85. Paul Hubert, 2015. "The Influence and Policy Signalling Role of FOMC Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(5), pages 655-680, October.
  86. Lena Dräger & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke, 2022. "Political Shocks and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine," ifo Working Paper Series 371, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  87. Damjan Pfajfar & Fabian Winkler, 2024. "Households' Preferences Over Inflation and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  88. Libertad González Luna & Luis Guirola & Blanca Zapater, 2023. "Partisan Abortions," Economics Working Papers 1859, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  89. Lena Dräger & Maximilian Floto & Marina Schröder, 2024. "Inflation Expectations and Economic Preferences," CESifo Working Paper Series 11326, CESifo.
  90. Carola Binder & Alex Rodrigue, 2018. "Household Informedness and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations: Experimental Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(2), pages 580-598, October.
  91. Carin van der Cruijsen & Anna Samarina, 2021. "Trust in the ECB in turbulent times," Working Papers 722, DNB.
  92. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2022. "Information frictions across various types of inflation expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  93. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2016. "Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina," NBER Working Papers 22103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  94. Gbaguidi, David, 2012. "La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 87-119, mars.
  95. Lena Dr䧥r & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2014. "Perceived inflation under loss aversion," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 282-293, January.
  96. Bańnkowska, Katarzyna & Borlescu, Ana Maria & Charalambakis, Evangelos & Da Silva, António Dias & Di Laurea, Davide & Dossche, Maarten & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Honkkila, Juha & Kennedy, Neale & Kenny, 2021. "ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: an overview and first evaluation," Occasional Paper Series 287, European Central Bank.
  97. Carola Binder & Tucker S. Mcelroy & Xuguang S. Sheng, 2022. "The Term Structure of Uncertainty: New Evidence from Survey Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(1), pages 39-71, February.
  98. Murillo Garza José Antonio & Sánchez-Romeu Paula, 2012. "Testing the Predictive Power of Mexican Consumers' Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2012-13, Banco de México.
  99. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2021. "Anchoring of consumers’ long-term euro area inflation expectations during the pandemic," Working Papers 715, DNB.
  100. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2018. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Working Papers halshs-01890770, HAL.
  101. Aleksey A. Korikov & Konstantin P. Yurchenko, 2023. "Inflation expectations and consumer sentiments of the Urals population," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 24(4), pages 125-147, January.
  102. Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2012. "Heterogeneus Inflation Expectations Learning and Market Outcomes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 667, Central Bank of Chile.
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