IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_11326.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation Expectations and Economic Preferences

Author

Listed:
  • Lena Dräger
  • Maximilian Floto
  • Marina Schröder

Abstract

We provide evidence for an expectation gap, where risk-averse as well as impatient households and experts provide significantly higher prior inflation forecasts. Using a survey randomized control trial (RCT), we can show that information about inflation forecasts closes this expectations gap. The group, whose prior expectations was farthest from the treatment information, tends to adjust posterior expectations more strongly. However, we find no such effect with respect to forecasts for energy prices, which are less informative. Our results suggest that the expectation gap seems to be partially due to differences in information seeking between different types of individuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Lena Dräger & Maximilian Floto & Marina Schröder, 2024. "Inflation Expectations and Economic Preferences," CESifo Working Paper Series 11326, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11326
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11326.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lena Dräger & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke, 2022. "Political Shocks and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine," ifo Working Paper Series 371, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
    3. Olivier Armantier & Scott Nelson & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2016. "The Price Is Right: Updating Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 503-523, July.
    4. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Inflation Expectations And Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act On Their Beliefs?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(2), pages 505-536, May.
    5. Saten Kumar & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2023. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(4), pages 1297-1332, July.
    6. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2023. "Forward Guidance and Household Expectations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 2131-2171.
    7. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde & Jürgen Schupp & Gert G. Wagner, 2011. "Individual Risk Attitudes: Measurement, Determinants, And Behavioral Consequences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 522-550, June.
    8. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    9. Francesco D’Acunto & Evangelos Charalambakis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Geoff Kenny & Justus Meyer & Michael Weber, 2024. "Household Inflation Expectations: An Overview of Recent Insights for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 32488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Dräger, Lena & Dalloul, Ami & Nghiem, Giang, 2024. "Anchoring Household's Inflation Expectations when Inflation is High," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302397, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Armin Falk & Anke Becker & Thomas Dohmen & Benjamin Enke & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2018. "Global Evidence on Economic Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1645-1692.
    12. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Maarten van Rooij, 2023. "How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 109-152, July.
    13. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Inflation Expectations And Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act On Their Beliefs?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 505-536, May.
    14. Lena Dräger & Giang Nghiem, 2021. "Are Consumers' Spending Decisions in Line with A Euler Equation?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 580-596, July.
    15. David Bradford & Charles Courtemanche & Garth Heutel & Patrick McAlvanah & Christopher Ruhm, 2017. "Time preferences and consumer behavior," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 119-145, December.
    16. Bartosz Mackowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2009. "Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 769-803, June.
    17. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.
    18. Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Designing Information Provision Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 3-40, March.
    19. Doepke Joerg & Dovern Jonas & Fritsche Ulrich & Slacalek Jiri, 2008. "The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, March.
    20. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(6), pages 1537-1584.
    21. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Geoff Kenny & Michael Weber, 2024. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(3), pages 645-677, March.
    22. Armin Falk & Anke Becker & Thomas Dohmen & Benjamin Enke & David B. Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2017. "Global Evidence on Economic Preferences," NBER Working Papers 23943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Simon Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2013. "Measuring Inflation Expectations," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 273-301, May.
    24. Moritz Grebe & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "Household Expectations and Dissent Among Policymakers," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202226, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    25. Grebe, Moritz & Tillmann, Peter, 2022. "Household expectations and dissent among policymakers," IMFS Working Paper Series 169, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    26. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2017. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, July.
    27. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202424 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Russell Golman & David Hagmann & George Loewenstein, 2017. "Information Avoidance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(1), pages 96-135, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla, 2024. "Consumers' macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 427-451, April.
    2. Andrade, Philippe & Gautier, Erwan & Mengus, Eric, 2023. "What matters in households’ inflation expectations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 50-68.
    3. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2024. "How to limit the spillover from an inflation surge to inflation expectations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Michael Weber, 2022. "What Do the Data Tell Us About Inflation Expectations?," NBER Working Papers 29825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    6. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Link, Sebastian & Peichl, Andreas & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2023. "Information frictions among firms and households," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 99-115.
    8. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2023. "IQ, Expectations, and Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2292-2325.
    9. Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
    10. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202424 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Cars Hommes & Julien Pinter & Isabelle Salle, 2023. "What People Believe about Monetary Finance and What We Can(‘t) Do about It: Evidence from a Large-Scale, Multi-Country Survey Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 10574, CESifo.
    12. Martha Elena Delgado & Juan Herreño & Marc Hofstetter & Mathieu Pedemonte, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations," Working Papers 24-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    13. Heiner Mikosch & Christopher Roth & Samad Sarferaz & Johannes Wohlfart, 2024. "Uncertainty and Information Acquisition: Evidence from Firms and Households," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 375-405, April.
    14. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Tambalotti, Andrea & Topa, Giorgio, 2022. "Subjective intertemporal substitution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 118-133.
    15. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2022. "Information frictions across various types of inflation expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    16. Boumans, Dorine & Gründler, Klaus & Potrafke, Niklas & Ruthardt, Fabian, 2024. "Political leaders and macroeconomic expectations: Evidence from a global survey experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    17. Dmitri V. Vinogradov & Michael J. Lamla & Yousef Makhlouf, 2024. "Survey-based expectations and uncertainty attitudes," Working Papers 2024_02, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    18. Agarwal, Sumit & Chua, Yeow Hwee & Song, Changcheng, 2022. "Inflation expectations of households and the upgrading channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 124-138.
    19. Weber, Michael & Candia, Bernardo & Ropele, Tiziano & Lluberas, Rodrigo & Frache, Serafin & Meyer, Brent & Kumar, Saten & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Coibion, Olivier & Kenny, Geoff, 2023. "Tell Me Something I don't Already Know: Learning in Low and High-inflation Settings," CEPR Discussion Papers 18299, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Bernardo Candia & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2020. "Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents," NBER Working Papers 27800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Lena Dräger & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke, 2022. "Political Shocks and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine," ifo Working Paper Series 371, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation expectations; patience; risk preference; households; experts; survey experiment; randomized control trial (RCT);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11326. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.