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Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market

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Cited by:

  1. Bruno S. Frey & Daniel Waldenstrom, 2007. "Using Financial Markets to Analyze History: The Case of the Second World War," CREMA Working Paper Series 2007-19, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
  2. Vesco, P. & Baliki, G. & Brück, T. & Döring, S. & Eriksson, A. & Fjelde, H. & Guha-Sapir, D. & Hall, J. & Knutsen, C. H. & Leis, M. R. & Mueller, H. & Rauh, C. & Rudolfsen, I. & Swain, A. & Timlick,, 2024. "The Impacts of Armed Conflict on Human Development: A Review of the Literature," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2462, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Frey, Bruno S. & Kucher, Marcel, 2000. "World War II as reflected on capital markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 187-191, November.
  4. Tobias A. Jopp, 2014. "How did the capital market evaluate Germany’s prospects for winning World War I? Evidence from the Amsterdam market for government bonds," Working Papers 0052, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
  5. Marc Flandreau & Kim Oosterlinck, 2011. "Was the Emergence of the International Gold Standard Expected? Melodramatic Evidence from Indian Government Securities," Working Papers 0005, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
  6. Lacroix, Jean & Mitchener, Kris & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2023. "Domino Secessions: Evidence from the U.S," CEPR Discussion Papers 18377, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Kim Oosterlinck & John Landon-Lane, 2006. "Hope springs eternal - French bondholders and the Soviet repudiation (1915-1919)," Post-Print CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 10(4), pages 507-535, December.
  8. Marina Diakonova & Luis Molina & Hannes Mueller & Javier J. Pérez & Cristopher Rauh, 2022. "The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting," Working Papers 2232, Banco de España.
  9. Timothy W. Guinnane, 2004. "Financial Vergangenheitsbewältigung: The 1953 London Debt Agreement," Working Papers 880, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  10. Hall, George J., 2004. "Exchange rates and casualties during the first world war," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1711-1742, November.
  11. Eric Monnet, 2024. "Interest Rates," Springer Books, in: Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert (ed.), Handbook of Cliometrics, edition 3, pages 1531-1549, Springer.
  12. William A. Bomberger & Gail E. Makinen, 2010. "Seigniorage, Legal Tender, And The Demand Notes Of 1861," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 916-932, October.
  13. Schioppa, Claudio A. & Papadia, Andrea, 2015. "Foreign Debt and Secondary Markets: The Case of Interwar Germany," MPRA Paper 102863, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
  14. Asaf Zussman & Noam Zussman & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2008. "Asset Market Perspectives on the Israeli–Palestinian Conflict," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 84-115, February.
  15. Timothy Besley & Hannes Mueller, 2012. "Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 810-833, April.
  16. Daniel Waldenstrom & Bruno S. Frey, 2006. "Using Markets to Measure Pre-War Threat Assessments: The Nordic Countries facing World War II," CREMA Working Paper Series 2006-27, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
  17. Meulemann, Max & Uebele, Martin & Wilfling, Bernd, 2014. "The restoration of the gold standard after the US Civil War: A volatility analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 37-46.
  18. Tapsoba, Augustin, 2023. "The cost of fear: Impact of violence risk on child health during conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
  19. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2003. "Comment fixer les cours de change?. Annonces et correspondances maastrichtiennes," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 69(1), pages 39-71.
  20. Mark Dincecco, 2010. "The Political Economy Of Fiscal Prudence In Historical Perspective," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 1-36, March.
  21. David, Geraldine, 2016. "Art as an investment in a historical perspective," Other publications TiSEM 2361da4b-d827-4cae-91ce-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  22. Stephanie Collet & Kim Oosterlinck, 2019. "Denouncing Odious Debts," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 205-223, November.
  23. Alexander Opitz, 2018. "“Comrades, Let's March!”.† The Revolution of 1905 and its impact on financial markets," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 22(1), pages 28-52.
  24. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2004. "The effects of transition and political instability on foreign direct investment inflows: Central Europe and the Balkans," ZEI Working Papers B 33-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  25. Nathan Foley-Fisher & Eoin McLaughlin, 2014. "State dissolution, sovereign debt and default:Lessons from the UK and Ireland, 1920-1938," Working Papers 0061, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
  26. Gary Pecquet & George Davis & Bryce Kanago, 2004. "The Emancipation Proclamation, Confederate Expectations, and the Price of Southern Bank Notes," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(3), pages 616-630, January.
  27. John Landon-Lane & Kim Oosterlinck, 2005. "Hope springs eternal… French bondholders and the Soviet Repudiation (1915-1919)," Departmental Working Papers 200513, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  28. Xavier De Scheemaekere & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2014. "Issues in Identifying Economic Crises: Insights from History," Working Papers CEB 14-014, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  29. Bai, Jushan, 1999. "Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 299-323, August.
  30. repec:wvu:wpaper:09-07 is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Daniel Waldenstr�m & Bruno S. Frey, "undated". "How Government Bond Prices Reflect Wartime Events - The Case of the Stockholm Market," IEW - Working Papers 102, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  32. McLaughlin, Eoin & Foley-Fisher, Nathan, 2013. "Irish Land Bonds: 1891-1938," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-109, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  33. Frey, Bruno S. & Kucher, Marcel, 2000. "History as Reflected in Capital Markets: The Case of World War II," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 468-496, June.
  34. Lusine Ivanov-Davtyan, 2024. "Education Under Attack? The Impact of a Localized War on Schooling Achievements," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp784, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  35. Hudson, Robert & Urquhart, Andrew, 2015. "War and stock markets: The effect of World War Two on the British stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 166-177.
  36. Gary M. Pecquet & Clifford F. Thies, 2006. "Texas Treasury Warrants, 1861-1865: A Test Of The Tax-Backing Of Money," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 191-203, Spring.
  37. Pecquet, Gary M. & Thies, Clifford F., 2007. "Texas treasury notes and market manipulation, 1837-1842," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 81-99, January.
  38. Oosterlinck, Kim, 2003. "The bond market and the legitimacy of Vichy France," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 326-344, July.
  39. Foley-Fisher, Nathan & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2016. "Sovereign debt guarantees and default: Lessons from the UK and Ireland, 1920–1938," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 272-286.
  40. Gerlach, Jeffrey R. & Yook, Youngsuk, 2016. "Political conflict and foreign portfolio investment: Evidence from North Korean attacks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 178-196.
  41. Nadav Ben Itzhak, 2018. "The Effect of Terrorism on Housing Rental Prices: Evidence from Jerusalem," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2018.08, Bank of Israel.
  42. Vesco, P. & Baliki, G. & Brück, T. & Döring, S. & Eriksson, A. & Fjelde, H. & Guha-Sapir, D. & Hall, J. & Knutsen, C. H. & Leis, M. R. & Mueller, H. & Rauh, C. & Rudolfsen, I. & Swain, A. & Timlick,, 2024. "The Impacts of Armed Conflict on Human Development: A Review of the Literature," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2426, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  43. Tobias A. Jopp, 2016. "Contemporaries' opinions of the Allied and Central Powers' performance during the First World War: measuring turning points in perception with sovereign debt prices," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 20(2), pages 242-273.
  44. Antipa, P., 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability and the Value of Money: Lessons from the British Paper Pound, 1797-1821," Working papers 466, Banque de France.
  45. Jianping Mei, 1999. "Political Risk, Financial Crisis, and Market Volatility," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-049, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  46. Kim Oosterlinck & Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Jacques-Marie Vaslin, 2013. "Waterloo: a Godsend for French Public Finances?," Working Papers 0041, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
  47. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Lukas A. Schmid, 2021. "Public perceptions and bond markets during the Great War: the case of a neutral country," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 537-561, March.
  48. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  49. Chin-Tsai Lin & Yi-Hsien Wang, 2005. "An Analysis of Political Changes on Nikkei 225 Stock Returns and Volatilities," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 6(1), pages 169-183, May.
  50. Flandreau, Marc & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2012. "Was the emergence of the international gold standard expected? Evidence from Indian Government securities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 649-669.
  51. Kim Oosterlinck, 2004. "La bourse de Paris sous l'occupation 1940-1944," Working Papers CEB 04-002.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  52. Chaney, Eric, 2008. "Assessing pacification policy in Iraq: Evidence from Iraqi financial markets," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-16, March.
  53. Jianping Mei & Limin Guo, 2004. "Political Uncertainty, Financial Crisis and Market Volatility," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(4), pages 639-657, December.
  54. Sara Fisher Ellison & Wallace P. Mullin, 1997. "Gradual Incorporation of Information into Stock Prices: Empirical Strategies," NBER Working Papers 6218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. William N. Goetzmann & Andrey D. Ukhov & Ning Zhu, 2007. "China and the world financial markets 1870–1939: Modern lessons from historical globalization1," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 60(2), pages 267-312, May.
  56. Elster, Yael & Zussman, Asaf & Zussman, Noam, 2017. "Rockets: The housing market effects of a credible terrorist threat," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 136-147.
  57. William Quinn, 2019. "Squeezing the bears: cornering risk and limits on arbitrage during the ‘British bicycle mania’, 1896–8," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1286-1311, November.
  58. Stephen Ciccone & Fred R. Kaen & Huimin Li, 2018. "The Fortunes of War and Aircraft Manufacturer Stock Returns: The Case of the Korean War," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(2), pages 211-241, April.
  59. Natalie D. Hegwood & David H. Papell, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity under the Gold Standard," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(1), pages 72-91, July.
  60. Grossman, Richard S. & Imai, Masami, 2009. "Japan's return to gold: Turning points in the value of the yen during the 1920s," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 314-323, July.
  61. Waldenström, Daniel & Frey, Bruno S., 2008. "Did nordic countries recognize the gathering storm of World War II? Evidence from the bond markets," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 107-126, April.
  62. Morys, Matthias, 2003. "Was the Bundesbank’s credibility undermined during the process of German reunification?," Economic History Working Papers 22355, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
  63. Kim, Harold Y. & Mei, Jianping P., 2001. "What makes the stock market jump? An analysis of political risk on Hong Kong stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 1003-1016, December.
  64. Weidenmier, Marc D., 2000. "The Market for Confederate Cotton Bonds," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 76-97, January.
  65. Gregory M. Dempster & Justin P. Isaacs, 2011. "Conflict, Credibility and Asset Prices," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 24, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  66. Avni Önder Hanedar & Hatice Gaye Gencer & Sercan Demiralay & Ismail Altay, 2017. "Between war and peace: The Ottoman economy and foreign exchange trading at the Istanbul bourse," Working Papers 0108, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
  67. Yi-Hsien Wang & Chin-Tsai Lin, 2009. "The political uncertainty and stock market behavior in emerging democracy: the case of Taiwan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 237-248, March.
  68. Chun-Yu Ho & Dan Li, 2014. "A mirror of history: China's bond market, 1921–42," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(2), pages 409-434, May.
  69. Niall Ferguson, 2006. "Political risk and the international bond market between the 1848 revolution and the outbreak of the First World War," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 59(1), pages 70-112, February.
  70. Coyne, Christopher J. & Dempster, Gregory M. & Isaacs, Justin P., 2010. "Asset values and the sustainability of peace prospects," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 146-156, May.
  71. Stephanie Collette, 2012. "Sovereign bonds: odious debts and state succession," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/209718, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  72. Marc D. Weidenmier & Kim Oosterlinck, 2007. "Victory or Repudiation? The Probability of the Southern Confederacy Winning the Civil War," NBER Working Papers 13567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  73. Mueller,Hannes Felix & Techasunthornwat,Chanon, 2020. "Conflict and Poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9455, The World Bank.
  74. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2010. "World War II events and the Dow Jones industrial index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1022-1031, May.
  75. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Ronn, Ehud I., 2019. "The global equity premium revisited: What human rights imply for assets' purchasing power," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 175-187.
  76. Cutsinger, Bryan P. & Rouanet, Louis & Ingber, Joshua S., 2023. "Assignats or death: The politics and dynamics of hyperinflation in revolutionary France," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
  77. Jopp, Tobias A., 2017. "How does the public perceive alliances? The Central and Allied Powers in World War I," IBF Paper Series 12-17, IBF – Institut für Bank- und Finanzgeschichte / Institute for Banking and Financial History, Frankfurt am Main.
  78. Vincent Medina & Cyr-Denis Nidier, 2003. "Pricing war within a real option framework," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 425-435.
  79. Kim Oosterlinck & Jeremy Simon, 2015. "Financial Repression and Bond Market Efficiency: the Case of Italy during World War II," Working Papers CEB 15-001, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  80. Dempster, Gregory & Isaacs, Justin & Smith, Narin, 2008. "Price discovery in restructured electricity markets," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 250-259, May.
  81. Olga Christodoulaki & Haeran Cho & Piotr Fryzlewicz, 2011. "A Reflection of History: Fluctuations in Greek Sovereign Risk between 1914 and 1929," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 50, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  82. Christodoulaki, Olga & Cho, Haeran & Fryzlewicz, Piotr, 2011. "A reflection of history: fluctuations in Greek sovereign risk between 1914 and 1929," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 38378, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  83. Quinn, William, 2016. "Squeezing the bears: Cornering risk and limits on arbitrage during the 'British Bicycle Mania', 1896-1898," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2016-05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
  84. Jędrzej Białkowski & Ehud I. Ronn, 2017. "The Global Equity Premium Revisited: What Human Rights Imply for Assets’ Purchasing Power," Working Papers in Economics 17/19, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  85. P.Antipa, 2014. "How Fiscal Policy Affects the Price Level: Britain’s First Experience with Paper Money," Working papers 525, Banque de France.
  86. Bruno Frey & Marcel Kucher, 1999. "Asset Prices and History: The Case of Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 11-20, March.
  87. Richard C. K. Burdekin & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2001. "Inflation Is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon: Richmond vs. Houston in 1864," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1621-1630, December.
  88. Bruno S. Frey & Marcel Kucher, 1999. "Wars and Markets: How Bond Values Reflect World War II," CESifo Working Paper Series 221, CESifo.
  89. William N. Goetzmann & Andrey Ukhov, 2001. "China and the World Financial Markets 1870-1930: Modern Lessons From Historical Globalization," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-30, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  90. Driffield, Nigel & Ioannidis, Christos, 2000. "Effectiveness and effects of attempts to regulate the UK petrol industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 369-381, June.
  91. Jędrzej Białkowski & Ehud I. Ronn, 2016. "Financial Markets in the Face of the Apocalypse," Working Papers in Economics 16/14, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  92. Jeffrey R. Gerlach & Youngsuk Yook, 2016. "Political Conflict and Foreign Portfolio Investment : Evidence from North Korean Attacks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-037, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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