IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hst/ghsdps/gd12-251.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Restoration of the Gold Standard after the US Civil War: A Volatility Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Max Meulemann
  • Martin Uebele
  • Bernd Wilfling

Abstract

Using a Markov-switching GARCH model this paper analyzes the volatility evolution of the greenback's price in gold from after the Civil War until the return to gold convertibility in 1879. The econometric inference associated with our methodology indicates a switch to a regime of low volatility roughly seven months before the actual resumption. Since this empirical finding is most likely to be reconciled with a change in market expectations, we conclude that expectations affected the exchange rate more than fundamentals. Our analysis also demonstrates that regime switches in the volatility of exchange rates may reflect historical events that remain undiscovered otherwise.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Meulemann & Martin Uebele & Bernd Wilfling, 2012. "The Restoration of the Gold Standard after the US Civil War: A Volatility Analysis," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-251, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hst:ghsdps:gd12-251
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://gcoe.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/research/discussion/2008/pdf/gd12-251.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Smith, Gregor W. & Smith, R. Todd, 1997. "Greenback-Gold Returns and Expectations of Resumption, 1862–1879," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 697-717, September.
    2. Miller, Marcus & Sutherland, Alan, 1994. "Speculative Anticipations of Sterling's Return to Gold: Was Keynes Wrong?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(425), pages 804-812, July.
    3. Officer, Lawrence H., 1981. "The Floating Dollar in the Greenback Period: A Test of Theories of Exchange-Rate Determination," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(3), pages 629-650, September.
    4. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
    5. Bordo,Michael D. & Capie,Forrest, 1993. "Monetary Regimes in Transition," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521419062.
    6. Dueker, Michael J, 1997. "Markov Switching in GARCH Processes and Mean-Reverting Stock-Market Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 26-34, January.
    7. Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "State- and time-contingent switches of exchange rate regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 361-374, May.
    8. De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans & Veestraeten, Dirk, 1999. "Price dynamics under stochastic process switching: some extensions and an application to EMU1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 195-224, February.
    9. Gelman, Sergey & Wilfling, Bernd, 2009. "Markov-switching in target stocks during takeover bids," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 745-758, December.
    10. Smith, Gregor W & Smith, R Todd, 1990. "Stochastic Process Switching and the Return to Gold, 1925," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(399), pages 164-175, March.
    11. Willard, Kristen L & Guinnane, Timothy W & Rosen, Harvey S, 1996. "Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1001-1018, September.
    12. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    13. Bordo,Michael D. & Capie,Forrest, 2006. "Monetary Regimes in Transition," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521030427.
    14. Froot, Kenneth A. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange-rate dynamics under stochastic regime shifts : A unified approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 203-229, November.
    15. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1983. "A Model of Stochastic Process Switching," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 537-551, May.
    16. Charles W. Calomiris, 1992. "Greenback Resumption and Silver Risk: The Economics and Politics of Monetary Regime Change in the United States, 1862-1900," NBER Working Papers 4166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Wilfling, Bernd, 2009. "Volatility regime-switching in European exchange rates prior to monetary unification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 240-270, March.
    18. Calomiris, Charles W, 1994. "Price and Exchange Rate Determination during the Greenback Suspension," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 344-344, April.
    19. Wilfling, Bernd & Maennig, Wolfgang, 2001. "Exchange rate dynamics in anticipation of time-contingent regime switching: modelling the effects of a possible delay," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 91-113, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Piotr Fiszeder & Marta Ma³ecka, 2022. "Forecasting volatility during the outbreak of Russian invasion of Ukraine: application to commodities, stock indices, currencies, and cryptocurrencies," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(4), pages 939-967, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2003. "Comment fixer les cours de change?. Annonces et correspondances maastrichtiennes," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 69(1), pages 39-71.
    2. Wilfling, Bernd, 2009. "Volatility regime-switching in European exchange rates prior to monetary unification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 240-270, March.
    3. Naszodi, Anna, 2011. "Exchange rate dynamics under state-contingent stochastic process switching," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 896-908, September.
    4. Newby, Elisa, 2012. "The suspension of the gold standard as sustainable monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1498-1519.
    5. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1994. "The Specie Standard as a Contingent Rule: Some Evidence for Core and Peripheral Countries, 1880-1990," NBER Working Papers 4860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Smith, Gregor W., 1995. "Exchange-rate discounting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 659-666, October.
    7. Wilfling, Bernd & Maennig, Wolfgang, 2001. "Exchange rate dynamics in anticipation of time-contingent regime switching: modelling the effects of a possible delay," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 91-113, February.
    8. François, Pascal & Morellec, Erwan, 2008. "Closed-form solutions to stochastic process switching problems," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(11), pages 1072-1083, December.
    9. Hans Dewachter & Dirk Veestraeten, 1999. "Measuring Convergence Speed of Asset Prices Toward a Pre-Announced Target," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces9902, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    10. Mark Trede & Bernd Wilfling, 2007. "Estimating exchange rate dynamics with diffusion processes: an application to Greek EMU data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 23-39, July.
    11. Veestraeten, Dirk, 2012. "Transition probabilities in a problem of stochastic process switching," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 201-204.
    12. Anna Naszódi, 2007. "Are the Exchange Rates of EMU Candidate Countries Anchored by their Expected Euro Locking Rates?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 115-134.
    13. Reher, Gerrit & Wilfling, Bernd, 2014. "The valuation of European call options on zero-coupon bonds in the run-up to a fixed exchange-rate regime," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 483-496.
    14. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "Forecasting exchange rates: The multi-state Markov-switching model with smoothing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 342-362, April.
    15. Gelman, Sergey & Wilfling, Bernd, 2009. "Markov-switching in target stocks during takeover bids," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 745-758, December.
    16. Kramer, Bert S. & Milionis, Petros, 2022. "Democratic constraints and adherence to the classical gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    17. Sutherland, A. & Miller, M., 1990. "Britain'S Return To Gold And Impending Entry Into The Ems: Expectations, Joining Conditions And Credibility," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 361, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    18. Bordo, Michael D. & Rockoff, Hugh, 1996. "The Gold Standard as a “Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval”," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 389-428, June.
    19. Colin Weiss, 2020. "Contractionary Devaluation Risk: Evidence from the Free Silver Movement, 1878-1900," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 705-720, October.
    20. Bayoumi, Tamim & Bordo, Michael D, 1998. "Getting Pegged: Comparing the 1879 and 1925 Gold Resumptions," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 122-149, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    US monetary history; 19th century; greenback; Markov-switching GARCH models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hst:ghsdps:gd12-251. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tatsuji Makino (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iehitjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.