IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v61y2019icp175-187.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The global equity premium revisited: What human rights imply for assets' purchasing power

Author

Listed:
  • Białkowski, Jędrzej
  • Ronn, Ehud I.

Abstract

In this paper, we argue that past computations of the equity risk premium did not properly account for the financial implications of political collapse on property, civil and human rights. Accordingly, we argue past calculations overstated the equity risk premium. In their stead, we argue a conservative lower bound is to set the value of equity to zero when confronted with the total absence of human, civil and property rights which negate the purchasing power of financial investments. In doing so, we provide a valid lower-bound estimate of the equity risk premium that is corrected for lack of such basic rights, demonstrating the important changes in this estimate over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Białkowski, Jędrzej & Ronn, Ehud I., 2019. "The global equity premium revisited: What human rights imply for assets' purchasing power," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 175-187.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:61:y:2019:i:c:p:175-187
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2018.09.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521918306690
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2018.09.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    2. YiLi Chien & Harold Cole & Hanno Lustig, 2012. "Is the Volatility of the Market Price of Risk Due to Intermittent Portfolio Rebalancing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2859-2896, October.
    3. Frey, Bruno S. & Waldenstr M, Daniel, 2004. "Markets work in war: World War II reflected in the Zurich and Stockholm bond markets," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 51-67, April.
    4. Rieger, Marc Oliver & Wang, Mei, 2012. "Can ambiguity aversion solve the equity premium puzzle? Survey evidence from international data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 63-72.
    5. Green, Richard C & Hollifield, Burton, 1992. "When Will Mean-Variance Efficient Portfolios Be Well Diversified?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1785-1809, December.
    6. Best, Michael J & Grauer, Robert R, 1991. "On the Sensitivity of Mean-Variance-Efficient Portfolios to Changes in Asset Means: Some Analytical and Computational Results," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 315-342.
    7. Jeremy J. Siegel & Richard H. Thaler, 1997. "Anomalies: The Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 191-200, Winter.
    8. Simon Johnson & John McMillan & Christopher Woodruff, 2002. "Property Rights and Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1335-1356, December.
    9. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-227, May.
    10. Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1-N Portfolio Strategy?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 1915-1953, May.
    11. Florian Schulz, 2016. "On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3185-3223, October.
    12. Bruno Frey & Marcel Kucher, 2001. "Wars and Markets: How Bond Values Reflect the Second World War," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(271), pages 317-333, August.
    13. Ledoit, Oliver & Wolf, Michael, 2008. "Robust performance hypothesis testing with the Sharpe ratio," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 850-859, December.
    14. Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1999. "Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 953-980, June.
    15. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    16. J. Bradford DeLong & Konstantin Magin, 2009. "The U.S. Equity Return Premium: Past, Present, and Future," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-208, Winter.
    17. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross‐Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
    18. Pok-sang Lam & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark, 2000. "Asset Pricing with Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good to Be True?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 787-805, September.
    19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Michele Boldrin & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2001. "Habit Persistence, Asset Returns, and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 149-166, March.
    20. Marc Oliver Rieger & Mei Wang & Thorsten Hens, 2015. "Risk Preferences Around the World," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(3), pages 637-648, March.
    21. Robert J. Barro & Jose F. Ursua, 2008. "Macroeconomic Crises since 1870," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 255-350.
    22. Friend, Irwin & Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "The Demand for Risky Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 900-922, December.
    23. Yong Tu & Helen X.H. Bao, 2009. "Property Rights and Housing Value: The Impacts of Political Instability," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 235-257, June.
    24. Willard, Kristen L & Guinnane, Timothy W & Rosen, Harvey S, 1996. "Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1001-1018, September.
    25. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2010. "World War II events and the Dow Jones industrial index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1022-1031, May.
    26. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    27. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
    28. Berkman, Henk & Jacobsen, Ben & Lee, John B., 2011. "Time-varying rare disaster risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 313-332, August.
    29. Robert J. Barro, 2005. "Rare Events and the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 11310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Boubakri, Narjess & El Ghoul, Sadok & Saffar, Walid, 2014. "Political rights and equity pricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 326-344.
    31. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2020. "Mapping the oil price-stock market nexus researches: A scientometric review," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 133-147.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jędrzej Białkowski & Ehud I. Ronn, 2017. "The Global Equity Premium Revisited: What Human Rights Imply for Assets’ Purchasing Power," Working Papers in Economics 17/19, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    2. Jędrzej Białkowski & Ehud I. Ronn, 2016. "Financial Markets in the Face of the Apocalypse," Working Papers in Economics 16/14, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    3. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Lukas A. Schmid, 2021. "Public perceptions and bond markets during the Great War: the case of a neutral country," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 537-561, March.
    4. George M. Constantinides, 2006. "Market Organization And The Prices Of Financial Assets," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 1-23, September.
    5. Matthias M. M. Buehlmaier & Kit Pong Wong, 2020. "Should investors join the index revolution? Evidence from around the world," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(3), pages 192-218, May.
    6. Thorsten Hens & Peter Wöhrmann, 2007. "Strategic asset allocation and market timing: a reinforcement learning approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 369-381, May.
    7. Murizah Osman Salleh & Aziz Jaafar & M. Shahid Ebrahim, 2011. "The Inhibition of Usury (Riba An-Nasi'ah) and the Economic Underdevelopment of the Muslim World," Working Papers 11002, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    8. Kenichi Hirayama & Akihiko Noda, 2020. "Evaluating the Financial Market Function in Prewar Japan using a Time-Varying Parameter Model," Papers 2008.00860, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    9. L.J. Basson & Sune Ferreira-Schenk & Zandri Dickason-Koekemoer, 2022. "Fractal Dimension Option Hedging Strategy Implementation During Turbulent Market Conditions in Developing and Developed Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(2), pages 84-95, March.
    10. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter & Iason Kynigakis, 2021. "Machine Learning and Factor-Based Portfolio Optimization," Papers 2107.13866, arXiv.org.
    11. George M. Constantinides, 2002. "Rational Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1567-1591, August.
    12. Michele Costola & Massimiliano Caporin, 2016. "Rational Learning For Risk-Averse Investors By Conditioning On Behavioral Choices," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-26, March.
    13. Seyoung Park & Eun Ryung Lee & Sungchul Lee & Geonwoo Kim, 2019. "Dantzig Type Optimization Method with Applications to Portfolio Selection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-32, June.
    14. Füss, Roland & Miebs, Felix & Trübenbach, Fabian, 2014. "A jackknife-type estimator for portfolio revision," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 14-28.
    15. Kin-Boon Tang & Shao-Jye Wong & Shih-Kuei Lin & Szu-Lang Liao, 2020. "Excess volatility and market efficiency in government bond markets: the ASEAN-5 context," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(2), pages 154-165, March.
    16. Fu, Jie & Zhang, Xiaoqi & Zhou, Wenyuan & Lyu, Yang, 2024. "A continuous heterogeneous agent model for multi-asset pricing and portfolio construction under market matching friction," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 267-283.
    17. Izzeldin, Marwan & Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur & Pappas, Vasileios & Petropoulou, Athina & Sivaprasad, Sheeja, 2023. "The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on global financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    18. Ding, Wenliang & Shu, Lianjie & Gu, Xinhua, 2023. "A robust Glasso approach to portfolio selection in high dimensions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 22-37.
    19. Hudson, Robert & Urquhart, Andrew, 2015. "War and stock markets: The effect of World War Two on the British stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 166-177.
    20. Wolfgang Karl Hardle & Yegor Klochkov & Alla Petukhina & Nikita Zhivotovskiy, 2022. "Robustifying Markowitz," Papers 2212.13996, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rare (“black swan”) events; Equity premium; International political crises; Property; civil and human rights; World War II; World equity index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:61:y:2019:i:c:p:175-187. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.