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Intuitions About Combining Opinions: Misappreciation of the Averaging Principle

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Cited by:

  1. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hommel, Ulrich & Prokesch, Tobias & Wohlenberg, Holger, 2016. "Testing weighting approaches for forecasting in a Group Wisdom Support System environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4081-4094.
  2. Antoine Bommier & Adrien Fabre & Arnaud Goussebaïle & Daniel Heyen, 2022. "Disagreement Aversion," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 22/370, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  3. Charles F. Manski, 2010. "When consensus choice dominates individualism: Jensen's inequality and collective decisions under uncertainty," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 1(1), pages 187-202, July.
  4. Ilan Yaniv & Shoham Choshen-Hillel, 2012. "When guessing what another person would say is better than giving your own opinion: Using perspective-taking to improve advice-taking," Discussion Paper Series dp622, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
  5. Johannes Müller-Trede & Shoham Choshen-Hillel & Meir Barneron & Ilan Yaniv, 2017. "The Wisdom of Crowds in Matters of Taste," Discussion Paper Series dp709, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
  6. Albert E. Mannes, 2009. "Are We Wise About the Wisdom of Crowds? The Use of Group Judgments in Belief Revision," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(8), pages 1267-1279, August.
  7. Jordan Tong & Daniel Feiler, 2017. "A Behavioral Model of Forecasting: Naive Statistics on Mental Samples," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3609-3627, November.
  8. Back, Camila & Morana, Stefan & Spann, Martin, 2023. "When do robo-advisors make us better investors? The impact of social design elements on investor behavior," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  9. Tang, Ming & Liao, Huchang, 2024. "Group efficiency and individual fairness tradeoff in making wise decisions," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  10. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
  11. Don A. Moore & Samuel A. Swift & Angela Minster & Barbara Mellers & Lyle Ungar & Philip Tetlock & Heather H. J. Yang & Elizabeth R. Tenney, 2017. "Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3552-3565, November.
  12. Leiby, Justin, 2018. "The role of consultants and management prestige in management control system adoption," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-13.
  13. Basu, Shankha & Savani, Krishna, 2017. "Choosing one at a time? Presenting options simultaneously helps people make more optimal decisions than presenting options sequentially," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 76-91.
  14. Schlag, Karl H. & Zapechelnyuk, Andriy, 2017. "Dynamic benchmark targeting," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 145-169.
  15. Oliver Merz & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "Underestimating randomness: Outcome bias in betting exchange markets," Working Papers 390, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  16. Jerker Denrell & Christina Fang, 2010. "Predicting the Next Big Thing: Success as a Signal of Poor Judgment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(10), pages 1653-1667, October.
  17. Saemi Park & David V. Budescu, 2015. "Aggregating multiple probability intervals to improve calibration," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 10(2), pages 130-143, March.
  18. Bunker, Kenneth, 2020. "A two-stage model to forecast elections in new democracies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1407-1419.
  19. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  20. Soll, Jack B. & Mannes, Albert E., 2011. "Judgmental aggregation strategies depend on whether the self is involved," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 81-102, January.
  21. Atanasov, Pavel & Witkowski, Jens & Ungar, Lyle & Mellers, Barbara & Tetlock, Philip, 2020. "Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 19-35.
  22. Jack B. Soll & Asa B. Palley & Christina A. Rader, 2022. "The Bad Thing About Good Advice: Understanding When and How Advice Exacerbates Overconfidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(4), pages 2949-2969, April.
  23. repec:cup:judgdm:v:10:y:2015:i:3:p:265-276 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. repec:cup:judgdm:v:14:y:2019:i:4:p:395-411 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Mandy Hütter & Fabian Ache, 2016. "Seeking advice: A sampling approach to advice taking," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 11(4), pages 401-415, July.
  26. Lyon, Aidan & Wintle, Bonnie C. & Burgman, Mark, 2015. "Collective wisdom: Methods of confidence interval aggregation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1759-1767.
  27. Vincenz Frey & Arnout van de Rijt, 2021. "Social Influence Undermines the Wisdom of the Crowd in Sequential Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(7), pages 4273-4286, July.
  28. Andreas Graefe, 2018. "Predicting elections: Experts, polls, and fundamentals," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 13(4), pages 334-344, July.
  29. W. Robert Knechel & Justin Leiby, 2016. "If You Want My Advice: Status Motives and Audit Consultations About Accounting Estimates," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(5), pages 1331-1364, December.
  30. Ana Vukicevic & Milan Vukicevic & Sandro Radovanovic & Boris Delibasic, 2022. "BargCrEx: A System for Bargaining Based Aggregation of Crowd and Expert Opinions in Crowdsourcing," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 789-818, August.
  31. Gino, Francesca, 2008. "Do we listen to advice just because we paid for it? The impact of advice cost on its use," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 234-245, November.
  32. Boris Maciejovsky & David V. Budescu, 2020. "Too Much Trust in Group Decisions: Uncovering Hidden Profiles by Groups and Markets," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(6), pages 1497-1514, November.
  33. Eric Libby & Leon Glass, 2010. "The Calculus of Committee Composition," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(9), pages 1-8, September.
  34. Kameda, Tatsuya & Tsukasaki, Takafumi & Hastie, Reid & Berg, Nathan, 2010. "Democracy under uncertainty: The ‘wisdom of crowds’ and the free-rider problem in group decision making," MPRA Paper 26584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Ilan Yaniv & Shoham Choshen-Hillel & Maxim Milyavsky, 2008. "Spurious Consensus and Opinion Revision: Why Might People Be More Confident in Their Less Accurate Judgments?," Discussion Paper Series dp492, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
  36. repec:cup:judgdm:v:8:y:2013:i:2:p:91-105 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Chartier, Christopher R. & Abele, Susanne, 2017. "Groups outperform individuals in tacit coordination by using consensual and disjunctive salience," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 74-81.
  38. Hathout, Michel & Vuillet, Marc & Carvajal, Claudio & Peyras, Laurent & Diab, Youssef, 2019. "Expert judgments calibration and combination for assessment of river levee failure probability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 377-392.
  39. Hong Luo & Jeffrey Macher & Michael Wahlen, 2021. "Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(10), pages 6358-6377, October.
  40. Felipe A. Csaszar & Daniella Laureiro-Martínez, 2018. "Individual and Organizational Antecedents of Strategic Foresight: A Representational Approach," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 513-532, September.
  41. Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Victor Richmond R. Jose & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., 2017. "Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 1110-1130, April.
  42. Philipp Ecken & Richard Pibernik, 2016. "Hit or Miss: What Leads Experts to Take Advice for Long-Term Judgments?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(7), pages 2002-2021, July.
  43. Robert L. Winkler & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. & Victor Richmond R. Jose, 2019. "Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 239-260, December.
  44. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
  45. Graefe, Andreas, 2023. "Embrace the differences: Revisiting the PollyVote method of combining forecasts for U.S. presidential elections (2004 to 2020)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 170-177.
  46. Yaniv, Ilan & Choshen-Hillel, Shoham & Milyavsky, Maxim, 2011. "Receiving advice on matters of taste: Similarity, majority influence, and taste discrimination," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 111-120, May.
  47. Deepa Mishra & Angappa Gunasekaran & Thanos Papadopoulos & Stephen J. Childe, 2018. "Big Data and supply chain management: a review and bibliometric analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 270(1), pages 313-336, November.
  48. Christopher W. Karvetski & Kenneth C. Olson & David R. Mandel & Charles R. Twardy, 2013. "Probabilistic Coherence Weighting for Optimizing Expert Forecasts," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 305-326, December.
  49. Viossat, Yannick & Zapechelnyuk, Andriy, 2013. "No-regret dynamics and fictitious play," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 825-842.
  50. Jonas Jacobson & Jasmine Dobbs‐Marsh & Varda Liberman & Julia A. Minson, 2011. "Predicting Civil Jury Verdicts: How Attorneys Use (and Misuse) a Second Opinion," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(s1), pages 99-119, December.
  51. Phanish Puranam, 2021. "Human–AI collaborative decision-making as an organization design problem," Journal of Organization Design, Springer;Organizational Design Community, vol. 10(2), pages 75-80, June.
  52. Peter Bednarik & Thomas Schultze, 2015. "The effectiveness of imperfect weighting in advice taking," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 10(3), pages 265-276, May.
  53. Renato Frey & Ralph Hertwig & Stefan M. Herzog, 2014. "Surrogate Decision Making," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 34(2), pages 258-269, February.
  54. See, Kelly E. & Morrison, Elizabeth W. & Rothman, Naomi B. & Soll, Jack B., 2011. "The detrimental effects of power on confidence, advice taking, and accuracy," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 272-285.
  55. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00713871 is not listed on IDEAS
  56. Patrick Afflerbach & Christopher Dun & Henner Gimpel & Dominik Parak & Johannes Seyfried, 2021. "A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the Wisdom of Crowds Phenomenon in Aggregating Expert Judgment," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 63(4), pages 329-348, August.
  57. Alison Wood Brooks & Francesca Gino & Maurice E. Schweitzer, 2015. "Smart People Ask for (My) Advice: Seeking Advice Boosts Perceptions of Competence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(6), pages 1421-1435, June.
  58. Irene Scopelliti & Carey K. Morewedge & Erin McCormick & H. Lauren Min & Sophie Lebrecht & Karim S. Kassam, 2015. "Bias Blind Spot: Structure, Measurement, and Consequences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(10), pages 2468-2486, October.
  59. Marc Keuschnigg & Christian Ganser, 2017. "Crowd Wisdom Relies on Agents’ Ability in Small Groups with a Voting Aggregation Rule," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(3), pages 818-828, March.
  60. Ilan Fischer & Ravid Bogaire, 2012. "The Group Calibration Index: a group-based approach for assessing forecasters’ expertise when external outcome data are missing," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(4), pages 671-685, October.
  61. Tomás Lejarraga & Johannes Müller-Trede, 2017. "When Experience Meets Description: How Dyads Integrate Experiential and Descriptive Information in Risky Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1953-1971, June.
  62. Stergios Athanassoglou & Valentina Bosetti & Gauthier de Maere d'Aertrycke, 2012. "Ambiguous Aggregation of Expert Opinions: The Case of Optimal R&D Investment," Working Papers 2012.04, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  63. Asa B. Palley & Jack B. Soll, 2019. "Extracting the Wisdom of Crowds When Information Is Shared," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 2291-2309, May.
  64. Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Robert L. Winkler, 2013. "Is It Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(7), pages 1594-1611, July.
  65. repec:cup:judgdm:v:13:y:2018:i:4:p:334-344 is not listed on IDEAS
  66. Ning Li & Huaikang Zhou & Mingze Xu, 2024. "From Text to Insight: Leveraging Large Language Models for Performance Evaluation in Management," Papers 2408.05328, arXiv.org.
  67. Onishi Hiroshi, 2018. "Consumers’ Social Learning About Videogame Consoles Through Multiple Website Browsing," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 6(6), pages 495-511, December.
  68. Ying Han & David Budescu, 2019. "A universal method for evaluating the quality of aggregators," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 14(4), pages 395-411, July.
  69. Coates, Dennis & Parshakov, Petr, 2022. "The wisdom of crowds and transfer market values," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(2), pages 523-534.
  70. Rader, Christina A. & Soll, Jack B. & Larrick, Richard P., 2015. "Pushing away from representative advice: Advice taking, anchoring, and adjustment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 26-43.
  71. Yun Shin Lee & Enno Siemsen, 2017. "Task Decomposition and Newsvendor Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(10), pages 3226-3245, October.
  72. Johannes Müller-Trede & Shoham Choshen-Hillel & Meir Barneron & Ilan Yaniv, 2018. "The Wisdom of Crowds in Matters of Taste," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1779-1803, April.
  73. Mirko Kremer & Enno Siemsen & Douglas J. Thomas, 2016. "The Sum and Its Parts: Judgmental Hierarchical Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(9), pages 2745-2764, September.
  74. repec:cup:judgdm:v:10:y:2015:i:2:p:130-143 is not listed on IDEAS
  75. Taylor, James W. & Taylor, Kathryn S., 2023. "Combining probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 25-41.
  76. Christian Ganser & Marc Keuschnigg, 2018. "Social Influence Strengthens Crowd Wisdom Under Voting," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(06n07), pages 1-23, September.
  77. Julia A. Minson & Jennifer S. Mueller & Richard P. Larrick, 2018. "The Contingent Wisdom of Dyads: When Discussion Enhances vs. Undermines the Accuracy of Collaborative Judgments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4177-4192, September.
  78. Karsten Hueffer & Miguel A. Fonseca & Anthony Leiserowitz & Karen M. Taylor, 2013. "The wisdom of crowds: Predicting a weather and climate-related event," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(2), pages 91-105, March.
  79. Yoon, Haewon & Scopelliti, Irene & Morewedge, Carey K., 2021. "Decision making can be improved through observational learning," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 155-188.
  80. Healey, Mark P. & Bleda, Mercedes & Querbes, Adrien, 2021. "Opportunity evaluation in teams: A social cognitive model," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 36(4).
  81. Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. & Victor Richmond R. Jose & Robert L. Winkler, 2017. "Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 712-728, June.
  82. Vishal Gupta & Alka Gupta, 2015. "Relationship between entrepreneurial orientation and firm performance in large organizations over time," Journal of International Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 7-27, March.
  83. Aurélien Baillon & Laure Cabantous & Peter Wakker, 2012. "Aggregating imprecise or conflicting beliefs: An experimental investigation using modern ambiguity theories," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 115-147, April.
  84. Adrian Flint & Christian Meyer zu Natrup, 2014. "Ownership and Participation," Journal of Developing Societies, , vol. 30(3), pages 273-295, September.
  85. Felipe A. Csaszar & J. P. Eggers, 2013. "Organizational Decision Making: An Information Aggregation View," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(10), pages 2257-2277, October.
  86. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott & Jones, Randall J. & Cuzan, Alfred G., 2017. "Assessing the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Popular Vote Forecasts," MPRA Paper 83282, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  87. repec:cup:judgdm:v:11:y:2016:i:4:p:401-415 is not listed on IDEAS
  88. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott & Jones, Randall J. & Cuzán, Alfred G., 2014. "Combining forecasts: An application to elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 43-54.
  89. Steffen Keck & Wenjie Tang, 2021. "Elaborating or Aggregating? The Joint Effects of Group Decision-Making Structure and Systematic Errors on the Value of Group Interactions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(7), pages 4287-4309, July.
  90. Cem Peker, 2023. "Extracting the collective wisdom in probabilistic judgments," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 94(3), pages 467-501, April.
  91. Robert Mislavsky & Celia Gaertig, 2022. "Combining Probability Forecasts: 60% and 60% Is 60%, but Likely and Likely Is Very Likely," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 541-563, January.
  92. Soll, Jack B. & Mannes, Albert E., 2011. "Judgmental aggregation strategies depend on whether the self is involved," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 81-102.
  93. Roth, Alvin E. & Herzog, Stefan & Hau, Robin & Hertwig, Ralph & Erev, Ido & Ert, Eyal & Haruvy, Ernan & Stewart, Terrence & West, Robert & Lebiere, Christian, 2009. "A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices From Experience and From Description," Scholarly Articles 5343169, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  94. Ville A. Satopää & Marat Salikhov & Philip E. Tetlock & Barbara Mellers, 2021. "Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7599-7618, December.
  95. Mirko Kremer & Brent Moritz & Enno Siemsen, 2011. "Demand Forecasting Behavior: System Neglect and Change Detection," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(10), pages 1827-1843, October.
  96. Kausel, Edgar E. & Culbertson, Satoris S. & Leiva, Pedro I. & Slaughter, Jerel E. & Jackson, Alexander T., 2015. "Too arrogant for their own good? Why and when narcissists dismiss advice," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 33-50.
  97. Jon Atwell & Marlon Twyman II, 2023. "Metawisdom of the Crowd: How Choice Within Aided Decision Making Can Make Crowd Wisdom Robust," Papers 2308.15451, arXiv.org.
  98. Yaniv, Ilan & Milyavsky, Maxim, 2007. "Using advice from multiple sources to revise and improve judgments," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 104-120, May.
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