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Collective wisdom: Methods of confidence interval aggregation

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  • Lyon, Aidan
  • Wintle, Bonnie C.
  • Burgman, Mark

Abstract

We report the results of a meta-analysis study of the relative accuracies for a range of methods for aggregating confidence interval estimates of unknown quantities. We found that a simple “trim-and-average” method—that is, remove outliers and then average—produced the most accurate estimates. Our results show that more complicated methods of confidence interval aggregation, which factor in confidence levels and estimate imprecisions, do not produce estimates more accurate than those produced by the simple trim-and-average method.

Suggested Citation

  • Lyon, Aidan & Wintle, Bonnie C. & Burgman, Mark, 2015. "Collective wisdom: Methods of confidence interval aggregation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1759-1767.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:68:y:2015:i:8:p:1759-1767
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2014.08.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Hanea, Anca & Wilkinson, David Peter & McBride, Marissa & Lyon, Aidan & van Ravenzwaaij, Don & Singleton Thorn, Felix & Gray, Charles T. & Mandel, David R. & Willcox, Aaron & Gould, Elliot, 2021. "Mathematically aggregating experts' predictions of possible futures," MetaArXiv rxmh7, Center for Open Science.
    2. Hanea, A.M. & McBride, M.F. & Burgman, M.A. & Wintle, B.C. & Fidler, F. & Flander, L. & Twardy, C.R. & Manning, B. & Mascaro, S., 2017. "I nvestigate D iscuss E stimate A ggregate for structured expert judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 267-279.
    3. Leonie Netter & Eike Luedeling & Cory Whitney, 2022. "Agroforestry and reforestation with the Gold Standard-Decision Analysis of a voluntary carbon offset label," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 1-26, February.
    4. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2015. "Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1678-1685.
    5. Johnson, Fred A. & Smith, Brian J. & Bonneau, Mathieu & Martin, Julien & Romagosa, Christina & Mazzotti, Frank & Waddle, Hardin & Reed, Robert N. & Eckles, Jennifer Kettevrlin & Vitt, Laurie J., 2017. "Expert Elicitation, Uncertainty, and the Value of Information in Controlling Invasive Species," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 83-90.

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