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Individual and Organizational Antecedents of Strategic Foresight: A Representational Approach

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  • Felipe A. Csaszar

    (Ross School of Business, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109)

  • Daniella Laureiro-Martínez

    (Department of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland)

Abstract

The ability to make predictions about strategic outcomes—what we term strategic foresight —is central to most theories of competitive advantage. This paper identifies individual- and organization-level antecedents of strategic foresight by analyzing an exercise taken by 358 MBA students. Among the individual antecedents, we show that two characteristics of mental representations (namely their breadth and agreement with consensus) are positively related to strategic foresight. Comparing individual to group performance reveals that groups exhibit greater strategic foresight than do individuals. Finally, from comparing the performance of real-life groups with “statistical” groups (for which decisions are computed by averaging the predictions of individuals before they become group members), we find that the superiority of group performance is due mostly to aggregating predictions, not representations.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe A. Csaszar & Daniella Laureiro-Martínez, 2018. "Individual and Organizational Antecedents of Strategic Foresight: A Representational Approach," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 513-532, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orstsc:v:3:y:2018:i:3:p:513-532
    DOI: 10.1287/stsc.2018.0063
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    Cited by:

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    3. Rahul Kapoor & Daniel Wilde, 2023. "Peering into a crystal ball: Forecasting behavior and industry foresight," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 704-736, March.
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    6. Felipe A. Csaszar, 2018. "What Makes a Decision Strategic? Strategic Representations," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(4), pages 606-619, December.
    7. Pindard-Lejarraga, Maud & Lejarraga, José, 2024. "Information source and entrepreneurial performance expectations: Experience-based versus description-based opportunity evaluations," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    8. Hazhir Rahmandad & Jerker Denrell & Drazen Prelec, 2021. "What makes dynamic strategic problems difficult? Evidence from an experimental study," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 865-897, May.
    9. Coali, Andrea & Gambardella, Alfonso & Novelli, Elena, 2024. "Scientific decision-making, project selection and longer-term outcomes," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(6).
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    11. Felipe A. Csaszar & Harsh Ketkar & Hyunjin Kim, 2024. "Artificial Intelligence and Strategic Decision-Making: Evidence from Entrepreneurs and Investors," Papers 2408.08811, arXiv.org.

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