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Combining Expert Judgments: A Bayesian Approach

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Wilson, Kevin J., 2017. "An investigation of dependence in expert judgement studies with multiple experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 325-336.
  2. Kangaspunta, Jussi & Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti, 2012. "Cost-efficiency analysis of weapon system portfolios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 264-275.
  3. Irene Valsecchi, 2013. "The expert problem: a survey," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 303-331, November.
  4. Pennings, Clint L.P. & van Dalen, Jan & Rook, Laurens, 2019. "Coordinating judgmental forecasting: Coping with intentional biases," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-56.
  5. Victor Zarnowitz & Louis A. Lambros, 1983. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," NBER Working Papers 1171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Usher, Will & Strachan, Neil, 2013. "An expert elicitation of climate, energy and economic uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 811-821.
  7. Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 621-634.
  8. Li, Yongquan & Zhu, Kaijie, 2009. "Information acquisition in new product introduction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(2), pages 618-625, October.
  9. Utkin, Lev V., 2006. "A method for processing the unreliable expert judgments about parameters of probability distributions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(1), pages 385-398, November.
  10. Ellina, Polina & Mascarenhas, Briance & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 2020. "Clarifying managerial biases using a probabilistic framework," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
  11. Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
  12. Mehrez, A. & Yuan, Y. & Gafni, A., 1995. "The search for information -- A patient perspective on multiple opinions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 244-262, September.
  13. Stephen C. Hora, 2013. "A Note on the Aggregation of Event Probabilities," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(5), pages 909-914, May.
  14. Stephen C. Hora & Benjamin R. Fransen & Natasha Hawkins & Irving Susel, 2013. "Median Aggregation of Distribution Functions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 279-291, December.
  15. Wan S. Shin & Jung J. Lee, 1992. "A multi‐run interactive method for bicriterion optimization problems," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 115-135, February.
  16. Mehdi Mostaghimi, 2001. "Information Collection Strategic Design in Experts-assisted Decision Making Paradigm," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 10(5), pages 375-388, September.
  17. Weyant John, 2014. "Integrated assessment of climate change: state of the literature," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 377-409, December.
  18. Mario P. Brito & Ian G. J. Dawson, 2020. "Predicting the Validity of Expert Judgments in Assessing the Impact of Risk Mitigation Through Failure Prevention and Correction," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(10), pages 1928-1943, October.
  19. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009. "Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0909, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  20. Neil A. Stiber & Mitchell J. Small & Marina Pantazidou, 2004. "Site‐Specific Updating and Aggregation of Bayesian Belief Network Models for Multiple Experts," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(6), pages 1529-1538, December.
  21. Jason R. W. Merrick, 2008. "Getting the Right Mix of Experts," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(1), pages 43-52, March.
  22. Garratt, Anthony & Mise, Emi, 2014. "Forecasting exchange rates using panel model and model averaging," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 32-40.
  23. Thibault Gajdos & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2013. "Decisions with conflicting and imprecise information," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 41(2), pages 427-452, July.
  24. Jason R. W. Merrick & J. Rene van Dorp & Amita Singh, 2005. "Analysis of Correlated Expert Judgments from Extended Pairwise Comparisons," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 17-29, March.
  25. David M. Pennock & Michael P. Wellman, 2005. "Graphical Models for Groups: Belief Aggregation and Risk Sharing," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(3), pages 148-164, September.
  26. Ali Mosleh & George Apostolakis, 1986. "The Assessment of Probability Distributions from Expert Opinions with an Application to Seismic Fragility Curves," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(4), pages 447-461, December.
  27. Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  28. Robin J. Lake & Peter J. Cressey & Donald M. Campbell & Elisabeth Oakley, 2010. "Risk Ranking for Foodborne Microbial Hazards in New Zealand: Burden of Disease Estimates," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(5), pages 743-752, May.
  29. Thomas Weber, 2010. "Simple methods for evaluating and comparing binary experiments," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 257-288, August.
  30. Robert T. Clemen & Robert L. Winkler, 1999. "Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 187-203, April.
  31. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
  32. Ali Mosleh & Vicki Bier, 1992. "On Decomposition and Aggregation Error in Estimation: Some Basic Principles and Examples," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 203-214, June.
  33. Stephen C. Hora, 2004. "Probability Judgments for Continuous Quantities: Linear Combinations and Calibration," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 597-604, May.
  34. Yann Braouezec, 2010. "Committee, Expert Advice, and the Weighted Majority Algorithm: An Application to the Pricing Decision of a Monopolist," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 245-267, March.
  35. Bolger, Donnacha & Houlding, Brett, 2017. "Deriving the probability of a linear opinion pooling method being superior to a set of alternatives," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 41-49.
  36. John Weyant, 2017. "Some Contributions of Integrated Assessment Models of Global Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(1), pages 115-137.
  37. Wolden Bache, Ida & Sofie Jore, Anne & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2011. "Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1659-1670, October.
  38. Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Robert L. Winkler, 2013. "Is It Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(7), pages 1594-1611, July.
  39. Ning Wang & Cheng-shun Xu & Xiu-li Du & Ming-ju Zhang, 2018. "A risk assessment method of deep excavation based on Bayesian analysis and expert elicitation," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 9(2), pages 452-466, April.
  40. Fu, Qi & Zhu, Kaijie, 2010. "Endogenous information acquisition in supply chain management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 454-462, March.
  41. Biener, Christian, 2013. "Pricing in Microinsurance Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 132-144.
  42. Wang, W., 1997. "Subjective estimation of the delay time distribution in maintenance modelling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 516-529, June.
  43. Ali E. Abbas, 2009. "A Kullback-Leibler View of Linear and Log-Linear Pools," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 25-37, March.
  44. Ioannou, I. & Aspinall, W. & Rush, D. & Bisby, L. & Rossetto, T., 2017. "Expert judgment-based fragility assessment of reinforced concrete buildings exposed to fire," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 105-127.
  45. Bigun, Elizabeth Saers, 1995. "Risk analysis of catastrophes using experts' judgements: An empirical study on risk analysis of major civil aircraft accidents in Europe," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 599-612, December.
  46. Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2010. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 231-250.
  47. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2015. "Model Averaging In Economics: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 46-75, February.
  48. Tianjiao Wang & Yelin Fu, 2020. "Constructing Composite Indicators with Individual Judgements and Best–Worst Method: An Illustration of Value Measure," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 149(1), pages 1-14, May.
  49. James E. Smith & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2004. "Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 561-574, May.
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