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Rational Forecasts or Social Opinion Dynamics? Identification of Interaction Effects in a Business Climate Survey

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Cited by:

  1. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets – Evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1349-1363.
  2. Matthieu Charpe & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Christian R. Proaño, 2014. "Business Confidence and Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Nonlinear Two-Country Framework with Aggregate Opinion Dynamics," Working Papers 1401, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
  3. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Ioannis Vrontos & Petros Dellaportas & Serge Galam, 2014. "Communication impacting financial markets," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01215750, HAL.
  4. Kubin, Ingrid & Zörner, Thomas O. & Gardini, Laura & Commendatore, Pasquale, 2019. "A credit cycle model with market sentiments," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 159-174.
  5. Catalano, Michele & Di Guilmi, Corrado, 2019. "Uncertainty, rationality and complexity in a multi-sectoral dynamic model: The dynamic stochastic generalized aggregation approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 117-144.
  6. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2012. "Identification of animal spirits in a bounded rationality model: An application to the euro area," Economics Working Papers 2012-12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  7. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Reiner Franke & Frank Westerhoff, 2017. "Taking Stock: A Rigorous Modelling Of Animal Spirits In Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1152-1182, December.
  8. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2017. "The adaptiveness in stock markets: testing the stylized facts in the DAX 30," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1071-1094, November.
  9. Franke, Reiner, 2014. "Aggregate sentiment dynamics: A canonical modelling approach and its pleasant nonlinearities," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 64-72.
  10. Bolt, Wilko & Demertzis, Maria & Diks, Cees & Hommes, Cars & Leij, Marco van der, 2019. "Identifying booms and busts in house prices under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 234-259.
  11. Franke Reiner, 2012. "Microfounded Animal Spirits in the New Macroeconomic Consensus," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-41, October.
  12. Gardini, Laura & Radi, Davide & Schmitt, Noemi & Sushko, Iryna & Westerhoff, Frank, 2023. "Sentiment-driven business cycle dynamics: An elementary macroeconomic model with animal spirits," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 342-359.
  13. Yamamoto, Ryuichi & Hirata, Hideaki, 2013. "Strategy switching in the Japanese stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2010-2022.
  14. Lux, Thomas, 2009. "Mass psychology in action: identification of social interaction effects in the German stock market," Kiel Working Papers 1514, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  15. Gerunov, Anton, 2013. "Връзка Между Икономическите Очаквания И Стопанската Динамика В Ес-27 [Linkages Between Expectations and Economic Dynamics in EU-27]," MPRA Paper 68795, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Rianne Duinen & Tatiana Filatova & Wander Jager & Anne Veen, 2016. "Going beyond perfect rationality: drought risk, economic choices and the influence of social networks," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 57(2), pages 335-369, November.
  17. Xu, Shaojun, 2023. "Behavioral asset pricing under expected feedback mode," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  18. Thomas Lux & Jaba Ghonghadze, 2011. "Modeling the Dynamics of EU Economic Sentiment Indicators: An Interaction-Based Approach," Post-Print hal-00711445, HAL.
  19. Mundt, Philipp & Alfarano, Simone & Milaković, Mishael, 2020. "Exploiting ergodicity in forecasts of corporate profitability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  20. Hawkins, Raymond J., 2011. "Lending sociodynamics and economic instability," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(23), pages 4355-4369.
  21. Nicolas, Maxime L.D., 2022. "Estimating a model of herding behavior on social networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
  22. Pierdzioch, Christian & Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan-Christoph, 2014. "Heterogeneous forecasters and nonlinear expectation formation in the US stock market," Kiel Working Papers 1947, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  23. Lux, Thomas, 2020. "Can heterogeneous agent models explain the alleged mispricing of the S&P 500?," Economics Working Papers 2020-03, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  24. Brückbauer Frank & Schröder Michael, 2023. "The ZEW Financial Market Survey Panel," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 243(3-4), pages 451-469, June.
  25. Finger, Karl & Lux, Thomas, 2014. "Friendship between banks: An application of an actor-oriented model of network formation on interbank credit relations," Kiel Working Papers 1916, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  26. Shi, Yong & Tang, Ye-ran & Long, Wen, 2019. "Sentiment contagion analysis of interacting investors: Evidence from China’s stock forum," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 246-259.
  27. Lines Marji & Westerhoff Frank, 2012. "Effects of Inflation Expectations on Macroeconomic Dynamics: Extrapolative Versus Regressive Expectations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-30, October.
  28. Zheng, Min & Liu, Ruipeng & Li, Youwei, 2018. "Long memory in financial markets: A heterogeneous agent model perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 38-51.
  29. Marco D'Errico & Gulnur Muradoglu & Silvana Stefani & Giovanni Zambruno, 2014. "Opinion Dynamics and Price Formation: a Nonlinear Network Model," Papers 1408.0308, arXiv.org.
  30. Reitz Stefan & Rülke Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann Georg, 2010. "Regressive Oil Price Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(4), pages 454-466, August.
  31. Thomas Lux, 2013. "Inference for systems of stochastic differential equations from discretely sampled data: a numerical maximum likelihood approach," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 217-248, May.
  32. Mokinski, Frieder, 2016. "Using time-stamped survey responses to measure expectations at a daily frequency," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 271-282.
  33. Mitja Steinbacher & Matthias Raddant & Fariba Karimi & Eva Camacho Cuena & Simone Alfarano & Giulia Iori & Thomas Lux, 2021. "Advances in the agent-based modeling of economic and social behavior," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-24, July.
  34. Zhenxi Chen, 2020. "Regional financial market bloc and spillover of the financial crisis: A heterogeneous agents approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(2), pages 262-281, March.
  35. Morales-Arias, Leonardo & Moura, Guilherme V., 2013. "Adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 493-509.
  36. Stolzenburg, Ulrich & Lux, Thomas, 2010. "Identification of a core-periphery structure among participants of a business climate survey," Kiel Working Papers 1659, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  37. Lux, Thomas, 2012. "Estimation of an agent-based model of investor sentiment formation in financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1284-1302.
  38. Zhenxi Chen & Thomas Lux, 2018. "Estimation of Sentiment Effects in Financial Markets: A Simulated Method of Moments Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 711-744, October.
  39. Brückbauer, Frank & Schröder, Michael, 2021. "Data resource profile: The ZEW FMS dataset," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-100, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  40. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2012. "Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges," Papers 1209.0453, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2012.
  41. Xi Chen & Xiao Zhang & Yong Xie & Wei Li, 2017. "Opinion Dynamics of Social-Similarity-Based Hegselmann–Krause Model," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-12, December.
  42. Lux, Thomas, 2012. "Inference for systems of stochastic differential equations from discretely sampled data: A numerical maximum likelihood approach," Kiel Working Papers 1781, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  43. Lux, Thomas, 2016. "Network effects and systemic risk in the banking sector," FinMaP-Working Papers 62, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
  44. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Marina Matošec, 2023. "The persistence of economic sentiment: a trip down memory lane," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(2), pages 371-395, April.
  45. Rülke Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Do Private Sector Forecasters Desire to Deviate From the German Council of Economic Experts?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(4), pages 414-428, August.
  46. Markus Demary, 2017. "Yield curve responses to market sentiments and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(2), pages 309-344, July.
  47. Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2011. "Do private sector forecasters desire to deviate from the German council of economic experts?," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 11-04, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
  48. Morales-Arias, Leonardo & Dross, Alexander, 2010. "Adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data," Kiel Working Papers 1656, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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