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Communication impacting financial markets

Author

Listed:
  • Jørgen Vitting Andersen

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Ioannis Vrontos

    (AUEB - Athens University of Economics and Business)

  • Petros Dellaportas

    (AUEB - Athens University of Economics and Business)

  • Serge Galam

    (CEVIPOF - Centre de recherches politiques de Sciences Po (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Since the attribution of the Nobel prize in 2002 to Kahneman for prospect theory, behavioral finance has become an increasingly important subfield of finance. However the main parts of behavioral finance, prospect theory included, understand financial markets through individual investment behavior. Behavioral finance thereby ignores any interaction between participants. We introduce a socio-financial model (Vitting Andersen J. and Nowak A., An Introduction to Socio-Finance (Springer, Berlin) 2013) that studies the impact of communication on the pricing in financial markets. Considering the simplest possible case where each market participant has either a positive (bullish) or negative (bearish) sentiment with respect to the market, we model the evolution of the sentiment in the population due to communication in subgroups of different sizes. Nonlinear feedback effects between the market performance and changes in sentiments are taken into account by assuming that the market performance is dependent on changes in sentiments (e.g., a large sudden positive change in bullishness would lead to more buying). The market performance in turn has an impact on the sentiment through the transition probabilities to change an opinion in a group of a given size. The idea is that if for example the market has observed a recent downturn, it will be easier for even a bearish minority to convince a bullish majority to change opinion compared to the case where the meeting takes place in a bullish upturn of the market. Within the framework of our proposed model, financial markets stylized facts such as volatility clustering and extreme events may be perceived as arising due to abrupt sentiment changes via ongoing communication of the market participants. The model introduces a new volatility measure which is apt of capturing volatility clustering and from maximum-likelihood analysis we are able to apply the model to real data and give additional long term insight into where a market is heading.

Suggested Citation

  • Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Ioannis Vrontos & Petros Dellaportas & Serge Galam, 2014. "Communication impacting financial markets," Post-Print hal-01215750, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01215750
    DOI: 10.1209/0295-5075/108/28007
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01215750
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Lux & Michele Marchesi, 1999. "Scaling and criticality in a stochastic multi-agent model of a financial market," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6719), pages 498-500, February.
    2. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Andrzej Nowak, 2013. "An Introduction to Socio-Finance," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-642-41944-7, December.
    3. Arnswald, Torsten, 2001. "Investment Behaviour of German Equity Fund Managers - An Exploratory Analysis of Survey Data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,08, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 1998. "Learning from the Behavior of Others: Conformity, Fads, and Informational Cascades," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 151-170, Summer.
    5. Xavier Gabaix & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2003. "A theory of power-law distributions in financial market fluctuations," Nature, Nature, vol. 423(6937), pages 267-270, May.
    6. Shiller, 021Robert J. & Pound, John, 1989. "Survey evidence on diffusion of interest and information among investors," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 47-66, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Galam, Serge, 2016. "The invisible hand and the rational agent are behind bubbles and crashes," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 209-217.
    2. Naji Massad & J{o}rgen Vitting Andersen, 2019. "Three Different Ways Synchronization Can Cause Contagion in Financial Markets," Papers 1902.10800, arXiv.org.
    3. Naji Massad & Jørgen Vitting Andersen, 2017. "Three different ways synchronization can cause contagion in financial markets," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01673333, HAL.
    4. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Ioannis Vrontos & Petros Dellaportas & Serge Galam, 2014. "A Socio-Finance Model: Inference and empirical application," Working Papers hal-01215605, HAL.
    5. Yongqiang Meng & Dehua Shen & Xiong Xiong & Jørgen Vitting Andersen, 2020. "A Socio-Finance Model: The Case of Bitcoin," Post-Print halshs-03048777, HAL.
    6. Naji Massad & Jørgen Vitting Andersen, 2017. "Three different ways synchronization can cause contagion in financial markets," Post-Print halshs-01673333, HAL.
    7. Serge Galam, 2016. "The invisible hand and the rational agent are behind bubbles and crashes," Papers 1601.02990, arXiv.org.
    8. Naji Massad & Jørgen Vitting Andersen, 2017. "Three different ways synchronization can cause contagion in financial markets," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17059, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    9. Naji Massad & Jørgen Vitting Andersen, 2018. "Three Different Ways Synchronization Can Cause Contagion in Financial Markets," Post-Print hal-01951164, HAL.
    10. Naji Massad & Jørgen Vitting Andersen, 2018. "Three Different Ways Synchronization Can Cause Contagion in Financial Markets," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01951164, HAL.
    11. Eberhard, Erich K. & Hicks, Jessica & Simon, Adam C. & Arbic, Brian K., 2022. "Livelihood considerations in land-use decision-making: Cocoa and mining in Ghana," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    12. Zheng, Xi & Lu, Xi & Chan, Felix T.S. & Deng, Yong & Wang, Zhen, 2015. "Bargaining models in opinion dynamics," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 162-168.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    communication; formation of prices; stylized facts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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