IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v210y2023icp342-359.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sentiment-driven business cycle dynamics: An elementary macroeconomic model with animal spirits

Author

Listed:
  • Gardini, Laura
  • Radi, Davide
  • Schmitt, Noemi
  • Sushko, Iryna
  • Westerhoff, Frank

Abstract

We propose an elementary macroeconomic model with animal spirits in which aggregate investment expenditure depends on firms’ sentiment. Firms display one of three sentiment states. When national income increases (decreases) strongly, firms are optimistic (pessimistic) and aggregate investment expenditure is high (low). Otherwise, firms are neutral and aggregate investment expenditure is normal. A rigorous mathematical analysis of our elementary macroeconomic model sheds new light on how animal spirits may contribute to fluctuations in economic activity. In particular, we show that a bidirectional feedback process between national income and investor sentiment may create endogenous business cycles that coevolve with waves of optimism and pessimism.

Suggested Citation

  • Gardini, Laura & Radi, Davide & Schmitt, Noemi & Sushko, Iryna & Westerhoff, Frank, 2023. "Sentiment-driven business cycle dynamics: An elementary macroeconomic model with animal spirits," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 342-359.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:210:y:2023:i:c:p:342-359
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.04.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268123001166
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.04.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin, Carolin & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2021. "Heterogeneous expectations, housing bubbles and tax policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 555-573.
    2. Lux, Thomas, 2009. "Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 638-655, November.
    3. Chiarella,Carl & Flaschel,Peter, 2011. "The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521180184, September.
    4. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    5. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "The real consequences of financial stress," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1479-1499.
    6. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
    7. Proaño, Christian R. & Lojak, Benjamin, 2020. "Animal spirits, risk premia and monetary policy at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 221-233.
    8. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
    9. Paul Beaudry & Dana Galizia & Franck Portier, 2020. "Putting the Cycle Back into Business Cycle Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(1), pages 1-47, January.
    10. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2020. "Structural reforms, animal spirits, and monetary policies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    11. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2007. "Credit Traps and Credit Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 503-516, March.
    12. Gardini, L. & Radi, D. & Schmitt, N. & Sushko, I. & Westerhoff, F., 2022. "Causes of fragile stock market stability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 483-498.
    13. De Grauwe, Paul & Foresti, Pasquale, 2020. "Animal Spirits and Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 247-263.
    14. ,, 2013. "The good, the bad, and the ugly: An inquiry into the causes and nature of credit cycles," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(3), September.
    15. Sushko, Iryna & Gardini, Laura & Puu, Tönu, 2010. "Regular and chaotic growth in a Hicksian floor/ceiling model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 77-94, July.
    16. Flaschel, Peter & Charpe, Matthieu & Galanis, Giorgos & Proaño, Christian R. & Veneziani, Roberto, 2018. "Macroeconomic and stock market interactions with endogenous aggregate sentiment dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 237-256.
    17. Proaño, Christian R. & Lojak, Benjamin, 2021. "Monetary Policy with a State-Dependent Inflation Target in a Behavioral Two-Country Monetary Union Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    18. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
    20. Frank Westerhoff & Sebastiano Manzan, 2004. "Does liquidity in the FX market depend on volatility?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(10), pages 1-8.
    21. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Reiner Franke & Frank Westerhoff, 2017. "Taking Stock: A Rigorous Modelling Of Animal Spirits In Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1152-1182, December.
    22. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1997. "A floor and ceiling model of US output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 661-695, May.
    23. Salman Arif & Charles M. C. Lee, 2014. "Aggregate Investment and Investor Sentiment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(11), pages 3241-3279.
    24. De Grauwe, Paul & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2015. "Animal spirits and credit cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 95-117.
    25. Gardini, Laura & Sushko, Iryna & Naimzada, Ahmad K., 2008. "Growing through chaotic intervals," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 541-557, November.
    26. Matsuyama, Kiminori & Sushko, Iryna & Gardini, Laura, 2016. "Revisiting the model of credit cycles with Good and Bad projects," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 525-556.
    27. Paul De Grauwe, 2014. "Booms and Busts in Economic Activity: A Behavioral Explanation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 19, pages 521-556, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    28. Thomas Lux, 2009. "Rational Forecasts or Social Opinion Dynamics? Identification of Interaction Effects in a Business Climate Survey," Post-Print hal-00720175, HAL.
    29. Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "On the destabilizing nature of capital gains taxes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    30. J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
    31. Frank Westerhoff & Martin Hohnisch, 2007. "A note on interactions-driven business cycles," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 2(1), pages 85-91, June.
    32. Peter Flaschel & Florian Hartmann & Christopher Malikane & Christian Proaño, 2015. "A Behavioral Macroeconomic Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations with Complex Market Expectations Formation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 669-691, April.
    33. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    34. Flaschel, Peter, 1983. "Actual Labor Values in a General Model of Production," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 435-454, March.
    35. Puu, Tonu, 2007. "The Hicksian trade cycle with floor and ceiling dependent on capital stock," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 575-592, February.
    36. Paul Grauwe, 2011. "Animal spirits and monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 423-457, June.
    37. Asano, Takao & Yokoo, Masanori, 2019. "Chaotic dynamics of a piecewise linear model of credit cycles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 9-21.
    38. Umezuki, Yosuke & Yokoo, Masanori, 2019. "A simple model of growth cycles with technology choice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 164-175.
    39. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Platonov, Konstantin, 2019. "Animal spirits in a monetary model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 60-77.
    40. Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2013. "Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    41. Franke Reiner, 2012. "Microfounded Animal Spirits in the New Macroeconomic Consensus," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-41, October.
    42. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2004:i:10:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2019. "Different compositions of aggregate sentiment and their impact on macroeconomic stability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 117-127.
    44. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2012. "Regime dependence of the fiscal multiplier," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 502-522.
    45. Puu, Tonu & Gardini, Laura & Sushko, Irina, 2005. "A Hicksian multiplier-accelerator model with floor determined by capital stock," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 331-348, March.
    46. Mauro Gallegati & Laura Gardini & Iryna Sushko, 2021. "Dynamics of a business cycle model with two types of governmental expenditures: the role of border collision bifurcations," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 613-639, December.
    47. Day, Richard H, 1982. "Irregular Growth Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 406-414, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laura Gardini & Davide Radi & Noemi Schmitt & Iryna Sushko & Frank Westerhoff, 2024. "On the limits of informationally efficient stock markets: New insights from a chartist-fundamentalist model," Papers 2410.21198, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Takao Asano & Akihisa Shibata & Masanori Yokoo, 2024. "Technology choice, externalities in production, and a chaotic middle-income trap," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 29-56, January.
    2. Kubin, Ingrid & Zörner, Thomas O. & Gardini, Laura & Commendatore, Pasquale, 2019. "A credit cycle model with market sentiments," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 159-174.
    3. Franke, Reiner, 2014. "Aggregate sentiment dynamics: A canonical modelling approach and its pleasant nonlinearities," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 64-72.
    4. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Im, Ryonghun & Kunieda, Takuma & Shibata, Akihisa, 2022. "Financial destabilization," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Di Guilmi, Corrado & Galanis, Giorgos & Proaño, Christian R., 2023. "A Baseline Model of Behavioral Political Cycles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 50-67.
    6. Flaschel, Peter & Charpe, Matthieu & Galanis, Giorgos & Proaño, Christian R. & Veneziani, Roberto, 2018. "Macroeconomic and stock market interactions with endogenous aggregate sentiment dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 237-256.
    7. Tianhao Zhi, 2016. "Animal Spirits and Financial Instability - A Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Perspective," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2016, January-A.
    8. Tianhao Zhi, 2016. "Animal Spirits and Financial Instability - A Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Perspective," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 28, July-Dece.
    9. Gomes, Orlando, 2015. "Optimal resource allocation in a representative investor economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 72-84.
    10. Laura Gardini & Davide Radi & Noemi Schmitt & Iryna Sushko & Frank Westerhoff, 2024. "On the limits of informationally efficient stock markets: New insights from a chartist-fundamentalist model," Papers 2410.21198, arXiv.org.
    11. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2012. "Identification of animal spirits in a bounded rationality model: An application to the euro area," Economics Working Papers 2012-12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    12. Franke Reiner, 2012. "Microfounded Animal Spirits in the New Macroeconomic Consensus," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-41, October.
    13. Robert Calvert Jump & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2023. "Building blocks of a heterodox business cycle theory," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 334-358, April.
    14. Takao Asano & Masanori Yokoo, 2017. "Chaotic Dynamics of a Piecewise Linear Model of Credit Cycles with Imperfect Observability," KIER Working Papers 967, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    15. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Reiner Franke & Frank Westerhoff, 2017. "Taking Stock: A Rigorous Modelling Of Animal Spirits In Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1152-1182, December.
    16. Asano, Takao & Yokoo, Masanori, 2019. "Chaotic dynamics of a piecewise linear model of credit cycles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 9-21.
    17. Gao, Yang & Gong, Gang, 2020. "Stabilizing and destabilizing mechanisms: A new perspective to understand business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 51-68.
    18. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Ghil, Michael, 2008. "Natural disasters impacting a macroeconomic model with endogenous dynamics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1-2), pages 582-592, December.
    19. F. Cavalli & A. Naimzada & N. Pecora & M. Pireddu, 2021. "Market sentiment and heterogeneous agents in an evolutive financial model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1189-1219, September.
    20. Schulz, Jan & Mayerhoffer, Daniel M., 2021. "A network approach to consumption," BERG Working Paper Series 173, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomics; Business cycle dynamics; Investor sentiment; Animal spirits; Mathematical economics; Nonlinear dynamical systems;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:210:y:2023:i:c:p:342-359. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.