IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v31y2014icp64-72.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Aggregate sentiment dynamics: A canonical modelling approach and its pleasant nonlinearities

Author

Listed:
  • Franke, Reiner

Abstract

The paper is an attempt at an alternative to the rational expectations assumption in macroeconomic modelling. Emphasizing the concept of sentiment in contrast to the expectations of a single selected variable, it is meant to take an important step forward towards a canonical heterodox framework for the microfounded modelling of irreducible uncertainty and, specifically, herding. Referring to a large population of agents who repeatedly face a binary decision problem, two stylized approaches are considered to describe the aggregate sentiment dynamics: the transition probability and the discrete choice approach. After a slight modification of the latter, the two specifications are shown to give rise to essentially the same adjustment equations. In addition to these conceptual issues, a two-dimensional prototype model is put forward which can illustrate the rich potential of an inherent nonlinearity to generate scenarios with single and multiple (point and set) attractors.

Suggested Citation

  • Franke, Reiner, 2014. "Aggregate sentiment dynamics: A canonical modelling approach and its pleasant nonlinearities," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 64-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:31:y:2014:i:c:p:64-72
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2014.08.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X14000460
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.strueco.2014.08.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lux, Thomas, 2009. "Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 638-655, November.
    2. Paul De Grauwe, 2014. "Booms and Busts in Economic Activity: A Behavioral Explanation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 19, pages 521-556, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Thomas Lux, 2009. "Rational Forecasts or Social Opinion Dynamics? Identification of Interaction Effects in a Business Climate Survey," Post-Print hal-00720175, HAL.
    4. Pietro Dindo & Jan Tuinstra, 2011. "A Class of Evolutionary Models for Participation Games with Negative Feedback," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(3), pages 267-300, March.
    5. J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
    6. Hommes, Cars H. & Ochea, Marius I., 2012. "Multiple equilibria and limit cycles in evolutionary games with Logit Dynamics," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 434-441.
    7. Hommes, Cars & Huang, Hai & Wang, Duo, 2005. "A robust rational route to randomness in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1043-1072, June.
    8. Diks, Cees & van der Weide, Roy, 2005. "Herding, a-synchronous updating and heterogeneity in memory in a CBS," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 741-763, April.
    9. Paul Grauwe, 2011. "Animal spirits and monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 423-457, June.
    10. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    11. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387, October.
    12. Reiner Franke, 2008. "A Microfounded Herding Model and Its Estimation On German Survey Expectations," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 301-328.
    13. Franke Reiner, 2012. "Microfounded Animal Spirits in the New Macroeconomic Consensus," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-41, October.
    14. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    15. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Alan Kirman, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 137-156.
    17. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2012. "Structural stochastic volatility in asset pricing dynamics: Estimation and model contest," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1193-1211.
    18. Lahkar, Ratul & Sandholm, William H., 2008. "The projection dynamic and the geometry of population games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 565-590, November.
    19. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-896, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Reiner Franke & Frank Westerhoff, 2017. "Taking Stock: A Rigorous Modelling Of Animal Spirits In Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1152-1182, December.
    2. Datta, Bikramaditya & Sethi, Rajiv, 2023. "The dynamics of leverage and the belief distribution of wealth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 20-31.
    3. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2019. "Different compositions of aggregate sentiment and their impact on macroeconomic stability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 117-127.
    4. Murakami, Hiroki, 2018. "Existence and uniqueness of growth cycles in post Keynesian systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 293-304.
    5. Dieci, Roberto & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2018. "Interactions between stock, bond and housing markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 43-70.
    6. Flaschel, Peter & Charpe, Matthieu & Galanis, Giorgos & Proaño, Christian R. & Veneziani, Roberto, 2018. "Macroeconomic and stock market interactions with endogenous aggregate sentiment dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 237-256.
    7. Greg Philip Hannsgen & Tai Young-Taft, 2021. "Expectational and Portfolio-Demand Shifts in a Keynesian Model of Monetary Growth Fluctuations," Working Papers PKWP2112, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    8. Di Guilmi, Corrado & Galanis, Giorgos & Proaño, Christian R., 2023. "A Baseline Model of Behavioral Political Cycles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 50-67.
    9. Bikramaditya Datta & Rajiv Sethi, 2023. "The Dynamics of Leverage and the Belief Distribution of Wealth," Papers 2304.03436, arXiv.org.
    10. Dimitri Kroujiline & Maxim Gusev & Dmitry Ushanov & Sergey V. Sharov & Boris Govorkov, 2018. "An Endogenous Mechanism of Business Cycles," Papers 1803.05002, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
    11. Reiner Franke, 2018. "Competitive moment matching of a New-Keynesian and an Old-Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 201-239, July.
    12. Hiroki Murakami, 2019. "A note on the “unique” business cycle in the Keynesian theory," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(3), pages 384-404, July.
    13. Dimitri Kroujiline & Maxim Gusev & Dmitry Ushanov & Sergey V. Sharov & Boris Govorkov, 2015. "Forecasting stock market returns over multiple time horizons," Papers 1508.04332, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    14. Murakami, Hiroki, 2020. "Monetary policy in the unique growth cycle of post Keynesian systems," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 39-49.
    15. Dimitri Kroujiline & Maxim Gusev & Dmitry Ushanov & Sergey V. Sharov & Boris Govorkov, 2016. "Forecasting stock market returns over multiple time horizons," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1695-1712, November.
    16. Kroujiline, Dimitri & Gusev, Maxim & Ushanov, Dmitry & Sharov, Sergey V. & Govorkov, Boris, 2015. "Forecasting stock market returns over multiple time horizons," MPRA Paper 66175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Murakami, Hiroki & Zimka, Rudolf, 2020. "On dynamics in a two-sector Keynesian model of business cycles," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Reiner Franke & Frank Westerhoff, 2017. "Taking Stock: A Rigorous Modelling Of Animal Spirits In Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1152-1182, December.
    2. Flaschel, Peter & Charpe, Matthieu & Galanis, Giorgos & Proaño, Christian R. & Veneziani, Roberto, 2018. "Macroeconomic and stock market interactions with endogenous aggregate sentiment dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 237-256.
    3. Di Guilmi, Corrado & Galanis, Giorgos & Proaño, Christian R., 2023. "A Baseline Model of Behavioral Political Cycles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 50-67.
    4. Kai Li, 2014. "Asset Price Dynamics with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Time Delays," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2014, January-A.
    5. Kai Li, 2014. "Asset Price Dynamics with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Time Delays," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 13, July-Dece.
    6. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    7. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2017. "The adaptiveness in stock markets: testing the stylized facts in the DAX 30," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1071-1094, November.
    8. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2017. "Estimation of financial agent-based models with simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 21-45.
    9. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio & Diluiso, Francesca, 2024. "Climate actions, market beliefs, and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 176-208.
    10. Lines Marji & Westerhoff Frank, 2012. "Effects of Inflation Expectations on Macroeconomic Dynamics: Extrapolative Versus Regressive Expectations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-30, October.
    11. Hommes, Cars & Massaro, Domenico & Weber, Matthias, 2019. "Monetary policy under behavioral expectations: Theory and experiment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 193-212.
    12. Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2015. "Managing rational routes to randomness," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 157-173.
    13. Hommes, C.H., 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance, In: Handbook of Computational Economics II: Agent-Based Computational Economics, edited by Leigh Tesfatsion and Ken Judd , Elsevier, Amsterdam 2006," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    14. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
    15. Jia-Ping Huang & Yang Zhang & Juanxi Wang, 2023. "Dynamic effects of social influence on asset prices," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(3), pages 671-699, July.
    16. Bertasiute, Akvile & Massaro, Domenico & Weber, Matthias, 2020. "The behavioral economics of currency unions: Economic integration and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    17. Zheng, Min & Liu, Ruipeng & Li, Youwei, 2018. "Long memory in financial markets: A heterogeneous agent model perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 38-51.
    18. Antonio Doria, Francisco, 2011. "J.B. Rosser Jr. , Handbook of Research on Complexity, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK--Northampton, MA, USA (2009) 436 + viii pp., index, ISBN 978 1 84542 089 5 (cased)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 196-204, April.
    19. Kukacka, Jiri & Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2018. "On the estimation of behavioral macroeconomic models via simulated maximum likelihood," Economics Working Papers 2018-11, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    20. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Youwei, 2015. "Testing of a market fraction model and power-law behaviour in the DAX 30," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-17.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Logit dynamics; Herding; Microfounded animal spirits; Local and global bifurcations; Post-Keynesian modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D - Microeconomics
    • D - Microeconomics
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:31:y:2014:i:c:p:64-72. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.