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Strategy switching in the Japanese stock market

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  • Yamamoto, Ryuichi
  • Hirata, Hideaki

Abstract

This paper investigates the expectation formation process of Japanese stock market professionals. By utilizing a monthly forecast survey dataset on the TOPIX distributed by QUICK Corporation, we sort forecasters into buy-side and sell-side professionals. We empirically demonstrate that the buy-side and sell-side professionals use either fundamental or trend-following strategies throughout their expectation formation processes and that they switch between fundamental and trend-following strategies over time. We also discuss that strategy switching can be key in understanding the persistent deviation of the TOPIX from the fundamentals.

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  • Yamamoto, Ryuichi & Hirata, Hideaki, 2013. "Strategy switching in the Japanese stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2010-2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:37:y:2013:i:10:p:2010-2022
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2013.05.006
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    Cited by:

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    2. Takanobu Mizuta & Shintaro Kosugi & Takuya Kusumoto & Wataru Matsumoto & Kiyoshi Izumi & Isao Yagi & Shinobu Yoshimura, 2016. "Effects of Price Regulations and Dark Pools on Financial Market Stability: An Investigation by Multiagent Simulations," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1-2), pages 97-120, January.
    3. Wai-Mun Chia & Mengling Li & Huanhuan Zheng, 2017. "Behavioral heterogeneity in the Australian housing market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(9), pages 872-885, February.
    4. Ryuichi Yamamoto, 2022. "Predictor Choice, Investor Types, and the Price Impact of Trades on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 325-356, January.
    5. Yosra Mefteh Rekik & Younes Boujelbene, 2015. "Price Dynamics and Market Volatility: Behavioral Heterogeneity under Switching Trading Strategies on Artificial Financial Market," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(2), pages 33-43, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Strategy switching; Agent-based modeling; Survey data; Expectations; Japanese stock market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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