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Option Prices under Bayesian Learning: Implied Volatility Dynamics and Predictive Densities

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Kearney, Fearghal & Shang, Han Lin & Sheenan, Lisa, 2019. "Implied volatility surface predictability: The case of commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  2. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "Predictable dynamics in implied volatility surfaces from OTC currency options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1175-1188, June.
  3. Calvet, Laurent E. & Fisher, Adlai J., 2007. "Multifrequency news and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 178-212, October.
  4. Shang, Han Lin & Kearney, Fearghal, 2022. "Dynamic functional time-series forecasts of foreign exchange implied volatility surfaces," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1025-1049.
  5. Sílvia Gonçalves & Massimo Guidolin, 2006. "Predictable Dynamics in the S&P 500 Index Options Implied Volatility Surface," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1591-1636, May.
  6. Massimo Guidolin, 2006. "High equity premia and crash fears - Rational foundations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(3), pages 693-708, August.
  7. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter & Müller, Christoph, 2012. "Price adjustment to news with uncertain precision," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 337-355.
  8. Moritz Duembgen & L. C. G. Rogers, 2014. "Estimate nothing," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 2065-2072, December.
  9. Calvet, Laurent-Emmanuel & Czellar , Veronika, 2011. "state-observation sampling and the econometrics of learning models," HEC Research Papers Series 947, HEC Paris.
  10. Lei Shi, 2010. "Portfolio Analysis and Equilibrium Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 9, July-Dece.
  11. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2004. "Rational overconfidence and excess volatility in general equilibrium," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 157, Econometric Society.
  12. Shu Ling Chiang & Ming Shann Tsai, 2019. "Valuation of an option using non-parametric methods," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 419-447, October.
  13. Bernales, Alejandro & Chen, Louisa & Valenzuela, Marcela, 2017. "Learning and forecasts about option returns through the volatility risk premium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 312-330.
  14. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 161-217, January.
  15. Sudarshan Kumar & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Jayanth R. Varma & Vineet Virmani, 2023. "Harvesting the volatility smile in a large emerging market: A Dynamic Nelson–Siegel approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1615-1644, November.
  16. Calvet, Laurent E. & Czellar, Veronika, 2015. "Through the looking glass: Indirect inference via simple equilibria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 343-358.
  17. Guidolin, Massimo, 2006. "Pessimistic beliefs under rational learning: Quantitative implications for the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 85-118.
  18. Bernales, Alejandro & Guidolin, Massimo, 2014. "Can we forecast the implied volatility surface dynamics of equity options? Predictability and economic value tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 326-342.
  19. Le, Van & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2014. "Forecasting option smile dynamics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 32-45.
  20. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter & Veredas, David, 2011. "The impact of macroeconomic news on quote adjustments, noise, and informational volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2733-2746, October.
  21. Sadayuki Ono, 2007. "Option Pricing under Stochastic Volatility and Trading Volume," Discussion Papers 07/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
  22. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Rompolis, Leonidas S., 2012. "Exploring the role of the realized return distribution in the formation of the implied volatility smile," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1028-1044.
  23. Lei Shi, 2010. "Portfolio Analysis and Equilibrium Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2010, January-A.
  24. Rainer Baule & Bart Frijns & Milena E. Tieves, 2018. "Volatility discovery and volatility quoting on markets for options and warrants," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 758-774, July.
  25. Shaliastovich, Ivan, 2015. "Learning, confidence, and option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 18-42.
  26. Guidolin, Massimo, 2003. "International asset prices and portfolio choices under Bayesian learning," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 383-437, December.
  27. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George & Tzagkaraki, Emilia, 2008. "Can the evolution of implied volatility be forecasted? Evidence from European and US implied volatility indices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2401-2411, November.
  28. Markopoulou, Chryssa & Skintzi, Vasiliki & Refenes, Apostolos, 2016. "On the predictability of model-free implied correlation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 527-547.
  29. Wang, Jinzhong & Chen, Shijiang & Tao, Qizhi & Zhang, Ting, 2017. "Modelling the implied volatility surface based on Shanghai 50ETF options," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 295-301.
  30. Anais Maillet, 2015. "Food price volatility and farmers' production decisions under imperfect information," FOODSECURE Technical papers 8, LEI Wageningen UR.
  31. Shengli Chen & Zili Zhang, 2019. "Forecasting Implied Volatility Smile Surface via Deep Learning and Attention Mechanism," Papers 1912.11059, arXiv.org.
  32. A. A. Brown & L. C. G. Rogers, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs with Finite-Lived Agents," Papers 0907.4953, arXiv.org.
  33. Chatrath, Arjun & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay, 2014. "Crude oil moments and PNG stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 222-235.
  34. Guidolin, Massimo & Wang, Kai, 2023. "The empirical performance of option implied volatility surface-driven optimal portfolios," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
  35. Bedendo, Mascia & Hodges, Stewart D., 2009. "The dynamics of the volatility skew: A Kalman filter approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1156-1165, June.
  36. Élise PAYZAN LE NESTOUR, 2010. "Bayesian Learning in UnstableSettings: Experimental Evidence Based on the Bandit Problem," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 10-28, Swiss Finance Institute.
  37. Angus A Brown & L C G Rogers, 2010. "Diverse Beliefs," Papers 1001.1450, arXiv.org.
  38. Bernales, Alejandro & Guidolin, Massimo, 2015. "Learning to smile: Can rational learning explain predictable dynamics in the implied volatility surface?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-37.
  39. Paruolo, Paolo, 2005. "Automated Inference And The Future Of Econometrics: A Comment," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 78-84, February.
  40. Tao Li, 2013. "Investors' Heterogeneity and Implied Volatility Smiles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(10), pages 2392-2412, October.
  41. Bernales, Alejandro & Verousis, Thanos & Voukelatos, Nikolaos, 2020. "Do investors follow the herd in option markets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  42. Quaye, Enoch & Tunaru, Radu, 2022. "The stock implied volatility and the implied dividend volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  43. Xue-Zhong He & Lei Shi, 2016. "A Binomial Model of Asset and Option Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Published Paper Series 2016-4, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  44. Liu, Yi-Fang & Zhang, Wei & Xu, Hai-Chuan, 2014. "Collective behavior and options volatility smile: An agent-based explanation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 232-239.
  45. Nielsen, Carsten Krabbe, 2008. "On rationally confident beliefs and rational overconfidence," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 381-404, May.
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