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Price adjustment to news with uncertain precision

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  • Hautsch, Nikolaus
  • Hess, Dieter E.
  • Müller, Christoph

Abstract

Bayesian learning provides a core concept of information processing in financial markets. Typically it is assumed that market participants perfectly know the quality of released news. However, in practice, news' precision is rarely disclosed. Therefore, we extend standard Bayesian learning allowing traders to infer news' precision from two different sources. If information is perceived to be imprecise, prices react stronger. Moreover, interactions of the different precision signals affect price responses nonlinearly. Empirical tests based on intra-day T-bond futures price reactions to employment releases confirm the model's predictions and reveal statistically and economically significant effects of news' precision. Keywords: Bayesian learning ; information quality ; precision signals ; macroeconomic announcements

Suggested Citation

  • Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter E. & Müller, Christoph, 2008. "Price adjustment to news with uncertain precision," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-025, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2008-025
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    Cited by:

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    3. Pervaiz Alam & Xiaoling Pu & Barry Hettler & Hai Lin, 2020. "The pricing of accruals quality in credit default swap spreads," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 1943-1977, September.
    4. Hess, Dieter & Orbe, Sebastian, 2011. "Irrationality or efficiency of macroeconomic survey forecasts? Implications from the anchoring bias test," CFR Working Papers 11-13, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bayesian learning ; information quality ; precision signals ; macroeconomic announcements;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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